Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Gem is the pick this morning daytime max temps of about -3c next week in places if it verifies.

dont see how people can be downbeat when charts like this are popping up for just one week away 

 

Yes, and the GEM is no rough diamond when it comes to verification of late. Been doing very well according to the stats our Canadian model friend has.

[stotm]

Lots of talk about “talking the output down this morning”, the thing is I am having trouble finding this talk ? Models look from good to epic if cold and snow is that you like , let’s see which it will be?

[Summer Sun]

ICON is getting the colder air closer slowly but surely

[Roadrunner]

This morning, as with most mornings for the last week, i view this forum and model output through my fingers. Having been here for well over a decade, i have seen let downs, dramas, teddy throwing, pats on the back and a whole host of emotions i never knew were possible! As i've said on here before, i've seen situations where it felt like you were going on a Tinder date where the profile picture was Margot Robbie and when you get there Susan Boyle is waiting for you. I am sure this will happen again and again but i (we) keep coming back for more.

To my very novice eye we are on the cusp of something very, very special here. It would be better if the ECM was totally on the same page but as we've been told many times there will be model volatility until they settle on the final outcome - one would hope that this is sorted one way or the other by the 12z suite Tuesday. I learnt a long time ago to try to not get caught up in the hyperbole or for that matter get too downbeat when things get downgraded. It wasn't too long ago that i saw a few "winter is over" posts. Well, winter is about to bite back in its final act for this season.

So pull down the restraint bar, clip in the safety buckle and enjoy the ride people but remember, it's only weather.

[snowfish1]

52 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

I think that’s enough with the personal comments don’t you?

If you are concerned about a post or think someone is breaking forum guidelines then please report the post. As much as you think you’re trying to help, people going vigilante mod on here and ‘sticking up for/calling out’ posters actually causes us a whole lot of work and some of us have day jobs y’know? It’s going to be nuts in here again today I imagine.

also it’s not even 9am, everyone get a coffee and breathe. 

 

It's seriously hacking me off it absolutely RUINS what would otherwise be a fantastic place to learn why not put the energy into working out what the models actually say instead of being idiots to each other 

Edited February 19, 2018 by snowfish1

[supernova]

Couldn’t see if EPS had been posted yet. Op a significantly milder option compared to the rest of the suite right at the “make or break” point of the evolution. Comforting, even if the trend isn’t. 

 

[Johnp]

4 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

It's seriously hacking me off it absolutely RUINS what would otherwise be a fantastic place to learn why not put the energy into working out what the models actually say instead of being idiots to each other 

I've recently discovered the ignore option (8 people on mine and counting).

It makes the forum much less stressful and there's then no temptation to retaliate and take the thread off topic.

The only problem is I still see the guff I'm trying to ignore in quoted posts (is there anything I can do about that?).

Try it!

[Gowon]

Gem is exactly how we want things to develop.. We get that initial cold blast and then it's a smooth transition into an omega block.. if only

[Frosty.]

Really disappointing Ecm 00z, uppers (850's) only drop to minus 13 across southern uk and minus 14 / 15 across the southeast, especially kent..it's just not good enough is it!!!

[bluearmy]

Just to add that a combo of the ecm/gfs and the cold extended eps would be just dandy!

[karlos1983]

Never does this thread cease to amaze me! We are on the brink of a significant cold spell and still some are attempting to undo it before it's even got going  

GFS great , ECM still looks good to me, that shift north/south of the coldest uppers will no doubt continue for a few runs yet! UKMO is brilliant also!

These 2 ECM graphs confuse me somewhat!

With the Op being on the warm side of the ensembles for the majority of the run, I expected to see it to be on the higher side of the Pressure graph within it's members..... I need to go away and think about that one  

All in all a pretty good start to the week, "theme" continues!! 

Ps. Cracking Update from the weather people down in Exeter 

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by karlos1983

[Man With Beard]

Just had another look at last night's clusters - D9 - this morning's ECM is quite a good fit with the op cluster from last night:

Heights strong to the north, low heights clipping the SE.

Clusters 3, 4 and 5 all are more like the GFS, with the purple cold pool affecting much of the UK. So that type of eventuality well represented.

Cluster 2 is actually even more settled over the UK than the op - just a Kent clipper on that.

I suspect this morning's clusters will be similar when they come out at 10.30, with perhaps a slight nudge to the op run.

But worth remembering this is an easterly!! We don't normally firm up on details until T120 or T96.

Personally I'm very surprised we haven't seen many runs stall the cold over Eastern Europe - I've found it very unusual to see a cold pool get all the way from Russia to France, it usually gets disrupted along the way

[Rayth]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just to add that a combo of the ecm/gfs and the cold extended eps would be just dandy!

Is extended after 240? 

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just to add that a combo of the ecm/gfs and the cold extended eps would be just dandy!

What's the exstended eps like BA ? 

[Singularity]

We know that what usually happens when you have ECM and GFS diverging is a meet-up somewhere in the middle.

In these SSW-driven times, though, that might not be such a reliable predictor. In no way writing that off though and as per BA's words to such effect - that'd do very nicely!

[Snowyowl9]

Compare late feb 2006 to what GFS is showing a phenominal difference.

[Weathizard]

8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Never does this thread cease to amaze me! We are on the brink of a significant cold spell and still some are attempting to undo it before it's even got going  

GFS great , ECM still looks good to me, that shift north/south of the coldest uppers will no doubt continue for a few runs yet! UKMO is brilliant also!

These 2 ECM graphs confuse me somewhat!

With the Op being on the warm side of the ensembles for the majority of the run, I expected to see it to be on the higher side of the Pressure graph within it's members..... I need to go away and think about that one  

All in all a pretty good start to the week, "theme" continues!! 

 

I think the slight frustration with people at the moment is that some of the real eye candy on the ECM doesn't appear to be getting much closer and the last 2 runs out to day 10 have high pressure to close to the majority for anything wintry. 

 

Everything is still good but I can understand some people being edgy, it's quite normal given how many times easterlies have let us down in the past. Long term the ECM still looks good but FOR THE MAJORITY there's no snow, hence the concern from some I would imagine

[Northern Sky]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Really disappointing Ecm 00z, uppers (850's) only drop to minus 13 across southern uk and minus 14 / 15 across the southeast, especially kent..it's just not good enough is it!!!

Well no it isn't, cos I live in Leeds not Kent.

It's going to get colder wherever you are but from feeling very optimistic I'm now beset with nagging doubts. The real cold is still a week away which leaves plenty of time for incremental changes for the worse - particularly Catacols warning of the cold dropping to the south and missing the UK altogether. From bone chilling blizzards to chilly and dry, unfortunately it's quite a plausible outcome.

On a more optomistic note it does look that retrogression to a Greenland high is a very possible progression so if the initial cold easterly doesn't hit we may get another chance. Time is rolling on though, this cold needs to get a move on.

 

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I think the slight frustration with people at the moment is that some of the real eye candy on the ECM doesn't appear to be getting much closer and the last 2 runs out to day 10 have high pressure to close to the majority for anything wintry. 

 

Everything is still good but I can understand some people being edgy, it's quite normal given how many times easterlies have let us down in the past. Long term the ECM still looks good but FOR THE MAJORITY there's no snow, hence the concern from some I would imagine

Yes...... i remember them well, let me assure you the South have seen more letdowns than most! self control is a wonderful thing.....  but I get it, some are nervous.

If I looked at the output from the GFS and ECM, then ask myself what would the middle ground look like, it saves a lot of pain, it's not unlikely that's where we could end up!.

Edited February 19, 2018 by karlos1983

[TEITS]

Very surprised at some of the comments this morning.

Let me begin with the ECM and say this model has always been less progressive in bringing the very cold upper temps from the E. If we look at the +168 to +192 the cold arrives between Monday night and Tues which is exactly what I said yesterday morning about the ECM.

Now lets move onto the placement of the high. I can understand some of the comments this morning from our members in the N of the UK. However a subtle shift N or S of the high can make a signficant difference with regards to temps/snowfall. It is worth mentioning though that historically in these situations the further SE you are the more likely is is to be colder/snowier. If we look back to previous classic E,lys, locations such as NW Scotland have remained less cold with a abundance of sunshine.

Lets just forget about snowfall for a minute and the fact its nearly March and just enjoy the wonderful synoptics being shown. This in my opinion is a once every 10 year event and anyone who has anything negative to say about this mornings output needs to appreciate this. The SSW has it seems made the planet spin in the opposite direction and although we know that isn't the truth, the way the weather systems are behaving you would think that is the case.

Just look at these ECM ensemble means!

 

[bobbydog]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Never does this thread cease to amaze me! We are on the brink of a significant cold spell and still some are attempting to undo it before it's even got going  

GFS great , ECM still looks good to me, that shift north/south of the coldest uppers will no doubt continue for a few runs yet! UKMO is brilliant also!

These 2 ECM graphs confuse me somewhat!

With the Op being on the warm side of the ensembles for the majority of the run, I expected to see it to be on the higher side of the Pressure graph within it's members..... I need to go away and think about that one  

All in all a pretty good start to the week, "theme" continues!! 

Ps. Cracking Update from the weather people down in Exeter 

 

i think its due to the orientation of the HP and the position of the jet. if you look at the ECM and the GFS at +192, the GFS has a direct easterly flowing across the UK but the ECM has it going under.

if you imagine the pressure being the same (its probably not in these charts but just an example) for a particular location (in this case london) on the 2 charts but the upper flow being different directions. you would probably find that the pressure chart does what you expected, further north west.

if that makes any sense at all... 

 

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

What's the exstended eps like BA ? 

Cold

Sustained mid Atlantic ridge and broad sceuro trough - more troughing than the gefs with the cold staying further south over n Europe - perhaps a consequence of the model not taking the initial cold plunge as far west as the gefs do 

 

[bluearmy]

26 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Never does this thread cease to amaze me! We are on the brink of a significant cold spell and still some are attempting to undo it before it's even got going  

GFS great , ECM still looks good to me, that shift north/south of the coldest uppers will no doubt continue for a few runs yet! UKMO is brilliant also!

These 2 ECM graphs confuse me somewhat!

With the Op being on the warm side of the ensembles for the majority of the run, I expected to see it to be on the higher side of the Pressure graph within it's members..... I need to go away and think about that one  

 

The op brings a warm sector south with the small low at day 10 and clearly loses the pc airmass 

[Glacier Point]

Not sure why the angst GFS v EC placement of cold uppers. Both will be equally cold at the surface, and worth noting that there is no difference between EPS and GEFS mean ppn anomalies over the day 1-15 period. If anything EPS would be more likely to deliver something white (away from solely east facing coasts) for many beyond the day 12 mark.

Angular momentum continuing to head down in response to eastward propagation of coupled convective waves in the Indian Ocean week 2. probably a stalled GWO phase 2 response.

Strat warming will affect this composite, but broad scale signal for Euro trough there, as per EPS.

[bluearmy]

Just now, Glacier Point said:

Not sure why the angst GFS v EC placement of cold uppers. Both will be equally cold at the surface, and worth noting that there is no difference between EPS and GEFS mean ppn anomalies over the day 1-15 period. If anything EPS would be more likely to deliver something white (away from solely east facing coasts) for many beyond the day 12 mark.

I think the holy grail of cold pool direct hit (with likely snowy consequences) is driving the atmosphere in here