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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's not a matter of the uppers, it's the instability that you have to consider also. On the ECM 12z it is quite possible that for a large part of the country, -10 uppers are experienced along with it being mainly dry. When you see SLP as high as 1030/1040mb you need the deep blues to be associated with the cold uppers as there would be limited instability to produce the precipitation without the low thicknesses.

ECM1-216.GIF?18-0

Here you can see the greatest instability heads down through central Europe and into France/Spain...that is something we don't want to see.

I suppose it is something to watch it will be most problematic for those north ECM mean had instability reaching Southern England much more north than OP so that was highly encouraging. I would not like any further adjustments on that a touch north would be good. 

A3D1FF5D-268F-46A9-9256-07D94779FEE3.thumb.gif.9d0da17f1af2767da9b87837df558f47.gif

 

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL
2 hours ago, The Eagle said:

I think talking of how long the cold snap would be is premature.

Big risks 72 - 96 hrs. Blue in the face saying it. Need to see changes. GFS with the exception of JMA is on it's own in keeping the northern arm of the jet quiet. All the other models have a different version which would effect things drastically later on.

Hate to see this collapse but if GFS goes the way of the rest posters are not going to be happy i'd imagine. Not saying it will happen but the risk is there.

And yet other are ramping the charts up.   Are we going to get buried, or is it all going to end up in France?

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

GFS/UKMO/GEM all very good this morning with potent cold hitting the UK albeit now generally taking the slower route.

No point commenting further until the ECM has come out to see whether there is a southward trend or whether we are starting to finda consensus on how things are going to pan out.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
3 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

And yet other are ramping the charts up.   Are we going to get buried, or is it all going to end up in France?

No one knows. Keep an open mind and don't get sucked in to something that could leave you bitterly disappointed instead of bitterly cold :)

Everything is still 160 hrs + 

February 2012 was traumatic enough i'd have thought many lessons were learned from that!

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
1 minute ago, Fender.. said:

And yet other are ramping the charts up.   Are we going to get buried, or is it all going to end up in France?

 

1 minute ago, Fender.. said:

And yet other are ramping the charts up.   Are we going to get buried, or is it all going to end up in France?

Is it reverse psychology? , because the charts still look very good to me.

Of course nothing is guaranteed in terms of snowy cold until we have cross model agreement at t48

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
8 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

And yet other are ramping the charts up.   Are we going to get buried, or is it all going to end up in France?

It’s not ramping its simply saying for what model shows. I’ve been model watching for many years and seriously I’m struggling with any reference points to what we are looking at now. Based on probability from what’s evident it is IMO highly unlikely to go way of ECM 12Z.

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL

Or is it Eagle"s location, being further west in Ireland, any southward correction would effect him more?  I'm a pessimist by nature, and now I'm concerned 

Edited by Fender..
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Fender.. said:

Or is it Eagle"s location, being further west in Ireland, any southward correction would effect him more?

It's not about member's locations, it's more to do with the idea that once southwards corrections start, where do they stop?

Yes, the GFS and GEM 0z runs would bring snowy nirvana to the S and SE but the 12z ECM wouldn't be especially good for anyone- despite the cold uppers. If you're in the SE of England then the 0z GFS and GEM are pretty much the pinnacle of what you want to be seeing. Any further S and parts of the N of the UK start to miss out and even the SE would miss the CORE of the cold/instability.

Will be interesting to see the ECM.

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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
3 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

Or is it Eagle"s location, being further west in Ireland, any southward correction would effect him more?  I'm a pessimist by nature, and now I'm concerned 

that - and he does not want to get his hopes up, only to have them crushed.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Just now, CreweCold said:

It's not about member's locations, it's more to do with the idea that once southwards corrections start, where do they stop?

Yes, the GFS and GEM 0z runs would bring snowy nirvana to the S and SE but the 12z ECM wouldn't be especially good for anyone- despite the cold uppers. If you're in the SE of England then the 0z GFS and GEM are pretty much the pinnacle of what you want to be seeing. Any further S and parts of the N of the UK start to miss out and even the SE would miss the CORE of the cold/instability.

Will be interesting to see the ECM.

Are we really seeing southern corrections? These wobbles are expected at this range, too early to say really. Apart from ECM which happened to be an outlier it all looks fairly negligible if there is, I maintain the SE will be very unfortunate to miss out. On good snow and cold, for once I’m quite confident. I hope I’m not struck down for it..

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Are we really seeing southern corrections? These wobbles are expected at this range, too early to say really. Apart from ECM which happened to be an outlier it all looks fairly negligible if there is, I maintain the SE will be very unfortunate to miss out. On good snow and cold, for once I’m quite confident. I hope I’m not struck down for it..

Well...the GEFS suite how now flipped more towards the initial ECM 12z idea (i.e 72-96 hr range)

gensnh-21-1-114.png

We'll see how it unfolds from here

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Posted
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.

It’s a waiting game. Still swings and roundabouts for probably another 48 hours. Yesterday too far north..... today too far south..... still a long way to go but it is getting closer! 

I still think this could be a blinder! 

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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well...the GEFS suite how now flipped more towards the initial ECM 12z idea (i.e 72-96 hr range)

gensnh-21-1-114.png

We'll see how it unfolds from here

So you seem to be saying it will  move towards the ECM solution later on. I suppose if it can go wrong it will...

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

At day 7 the GEFS have shifted the core of the cold pool more centrally into Europe..

gensnh-21-0-168.png

The 18z suite had it aligned more through S Scandi

The control shows the issue...cold for the majority but mainly dry away from the far SE

gensnh-0-1-174.png

The peak cold conditions head through France.

Saying this, on a positive note, the control does show the second wave to affect more of the UK

gensnh-0-1-216.png

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=2

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

all i say this morning is that the uk could come to a standstill from about hours  150 hr  to  300 hours:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

And well this is very revealing for the GEM haters all hail the GEM - it’s consistently better than GFS out to T+120 at least. :p

 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Absolute screamer again on the 00z, with a reload from the north aswell! This is getting more stupendous by the minute. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

At day 7 the GEFS have shifted the core of the cold pool more centrally into Europe..

gensnh-21-0-168.png

The 18z suite had it aligned more through S Scandi

The control shows the issue...cold for the majority but mainly dry away from the far SE

gensnh-0-1-174.png

The peak cold conditions head through France.

Saying this, on a positive note, the control does show the second wave to affect more of the UK

gensnh-0-1-216.png

Seems like you inversely cherry picked. GEFS mean is fantastic especially so for Southern England.

4FC5A71E-D47E-4E04-AB77-692F20A3D6F3.thumb.png.6e10650be6dfc68cb2d4676f5a7bb3b4.png

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Oh no! Its all over. Back in warm uppers at 348h!

gfs-1-348.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Seems like you inversely cherry picked. GEFS mean is fantastic especially so for Southern England.

4FC5A71E-D47E-4E04-AB77-692F20A3D6F3.thumb.png.6e10650be6dfc68cb2d4676f5a7bb3b4.png

Is it even possible to cherry pick the mean chart :cc_confused:

lol

The reason why we're seeing changes around day 8/9/10 now is because the modelling has picked up the next signal (post E'ly) which is for a progression towards a Greenland HP. At the minute, the general consensus is for this to transition into a west based feature...but this is open to change :)

Edited by CreweCold
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9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Is it even possible to cherry pick the mean chart :cc_confused:

lol

The reason why we're seeing changes around day 8/9/10 now is because the modelling has picked up the next signal (post E'ly) which is for a progression towards a Greenland HP. At the minute, the general consensus is for this to transition into a west based feature...but this is open to change :)

But day 10 takes us to wednesday next week, the cold on some models in already established by then. In fact in the south at least, the slack and only cool easterly is drawn in by Wednesday this week and begins to get colder from then. 

For me, Thursday/Friday is D day as to what happens next 

We need lots of caution as to many times we have been burnt, but also it does happen when we hit the jackpot

Edited by Surrey
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

But day 10 takes us to wednesday next week, the cold on some models in already established by then. In fact in the south at least, the slack and only cool easterly is drawn in by Wednesday this week and begins to get colder from then. 

For me, Thursday/Friday is D day as to what happens next 

It does indeed. 

I've been through the individual perts of the GEFS and what is overwhelming is the difficulty the modelling is having over resolving the transition of the Scandi-Icelandic-Greenland-Canadian HP progression. Some allow the easterly in, some give us a brief easterly before a northerly and others even send the easterly down into Italy!

What is also abundantly clear from the 0z GEFS suite is that there is a current (this run) signal for a cyclonic phase to take precedent around day 10 onwards. On the face of it, some of the perts look underwhelming...that is until you take a look at the upper air profiles and realise you have LP systems meandering around in -6 to -8 850s!

Edited by CreweCold
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