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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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FENDER. Contributor

FENDER.

Posted
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL
Posted

Because you use phrases like "blink and you will miss it"  and "short and sweet"    When I'm sure you are aware that even if this solution verifies, it would be a 4+ day very cold  event. Many on here would gladly take that 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Last on from me tonight

and may this cold spell continue:)

goodnight and don't let the frost bite.

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Ice Man 85 Community Regular

Ice Man 85

Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
Posted
4 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

Because you use phrases like "blink and you will miss it"  and "short and sweet"    When I'm sure you are aware that even if this solution verifies, it would be a 4+ day very cold  event. Many on here would gladly take that 

If thats how I came across then i apologise. Still when there was talk of a "prolonged" period, 4 days was just a let down for me. Anyway, I'll leave it there. Just letting everyone know that I don't want to cause trouble before this post inevitably disappears in the morning.

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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted

I think talking of how long the cold snap would be is premature.

Big risks 72 - 96 hrs. Blue in the face saying it. Need to see changes. GFS with the exception of JMA is on it's own in keeping the northern arm of the jet quiet. All the other models have a different version which would effect things drastically later on.

Hate to see this collapse but if GFS goes the way of the rest posters are not going to be happy i'd imagine. Not saying it will happen but the risk is there.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)

I think some folk are truly underestimating the massive snow potential. This mere swipe from the east a tame cat relative to what we’re seeing modelled into Europe a Siberian lion! Delivered 20cm plus to London and brought capital to its knees, these deep cold uppers were essentially a 24 hour affair, what we are seeing by models quite repeatedly is this magnified X10 not only in terms of potency but longevity. 

we see the beast arrive which it is looking likely do so, and 50cm + is definitely possible in a number of places in east...

FAAF5D6E-6A9E-412B-B569-E639B020AB24.thumb.png.47a24a57f3697066a3e371a05fc423a4.png83A5B119-4D26-41EE-BB6E-02289D452E18.thumb.png.2004b72828285fa05e480bbcd171f00e.png

Edited by Daniel*
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JBMWeatherForever Aficionado

JBMWeatherForever

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man
Posted

Seems that some are talking about the demise of a cold spell that hasn't happened yet and isn't going to until the end of the week. But arrive it will ! To much notice being take by some of individual runs when it is the overall picture presented that needs noting.  A very clear signal now for Retrogression and locked in cold. Locked in meaning a prolonged period of very cold weather from the east, and a good chance of something exceptional.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Well the GFS has trended somewhat towards the ECM in its early stages, with a little bit more squeeze from Canadian vortex on the Arctic blocking-

gfsnh-0-96.png

Remember the GEFS last night...they were pretty much unanimous against this idea. Ergo, IMO ensembles are limited in their use- perhaps more especially the GEFS.

 

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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well the GFS has trended somewhat towards the ECM in its early stages, with a little bit more squeeze from Canadian vortex on the Arctic blocking-

gfsnh-0-96.png

Remember the GEFS last night...they were pretty much unanimous against this idea. Ergo, IMO ensembles are limited in their use- perhaps more especially the GEFS.

 

I warned about it last night. The northern arm of the jet is putting energy through our north.

It was on every model except the GFS. Ignored of course. Now the GFS is picking it up. UKMO is ok at 144 - but could now go in to the continent.

The trend is there.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

It’s better than the pub run....

18z2E62465D-B8BD-4FD1-90C0-FDDEBFAEE0B2.thumb.png.b1de36cecd7f820d374d2c5a1ad61740.png00z11CADBF4-985C-43E3-8B83-C6E8BEC50EE0.thumb.png.631aff7b6ce30fbd4b7736e4ea0c3c5a.png

It is...

but the initial progression is a lot more fragile than the 18z showed. This could easily have gone the way of the ECM 12z and I'm not sure whether it gets to where it is by day 7 by luck or by fortune!

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)

North Sea working well I see as soon as Sunday persistent falls of snow in the east possible absoloutely anywhere really. 

69B53911-344B-407D-8E4A-EC81AF5EAC59.thumb.png.222d02568c4c795cc7f5e44cdf125339.png04E14BEE-B98E-4E48-A8D3-4E0296680E82.thumb.png.9588ff61917f4af36b106bf5a1b2f460.png285E8E5B-E801-4AF1-837C-D6B64B5DA89F.thumb.png.37b84d9c4aeefef4bcca238334e1a70c.png

Edited by Daniel*
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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It is...

but the initial progression is a lot more fragile than the 18z showed. This could easily have gone the way of the ECM 12z and I'm not sure whether it gets to where it is by day 7 by luck or by fortune!

GFS only now starting to pick up what the higher resolution models were showing yesterday. My own opinion is that this is actually in trouble despite the GFS :(  See ICON for just how much trouble that initial strengthening of the northern arm of the jet 72 - 96 hrs could have. 

UKMO, I rest my case. 144 - may by luck work out as you put it. I think that is going in to the continent. Damage is done at 96 hrs, not 120 hrs...

Don't mean to be negative - just realistic.

Edited by The Eagle
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted

All main overnight models are actually as closely alligned as ever tonight - just with a slight delay of the cold back to 144 onwards-

However a true beast on GFS / GEM -

Nearly -20 !

688FD89C-D3A3-4FF1-A3D1-EDF8890C8E7D.thumb.png.3bbdcfe9b1108cd6189a6fccf2dd07ec.png

These runs would bring epic amounts of snow -

Lets hope those nagging doubts are put to bed in the next 24 hours...

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

GFS only now starting to pick up what the higher resolution models were showing yesterday. My own opinion is that this is actually in trouble despite the GFS :(  See ICON for just how much trouble that initial strengthening of the northern arm of the jet 72 - 96 hrs could have. 

UKMO, I rest my case. 144 - may by luck work out as you put it. I think that is going in to the continent. Damage is done at 96 hrs, not 120 hrs...

Yes, until the differences are resolved, the GFS is just eye candy for now...

Saying that, rightly or wrongly I won't be putting much stock in the ICON. I didn't rate it when it was showing dream charts and I don't rate it now. 

The UKMO and ICON day 6 charts are very different. The UKMO gets a greater wedge of heights where we want them at that point (west of Scandi) and so should avoid the phasing issues that the ICON shows.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

GEM has core of cold hitting SE England down into France

gem-1-222.png?00

There has been a correction S overnight of the coldest uppers...something we don't want to see continue as we move forward.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)

OMG best run to date this is shaping as that’s remarkable in itself! Is this what heaven looks like? Prolonged frigid conditions and very snowy. South east / East Anglia would be buried.

7C241A8D-0B80-4343-B077-ABB20AA2E609.thumb.png.d26e46a95caa86330cb5225a60d81b3b.png8DA34995-F89F-45B6-B3FC-71465772B566.thumb.png.f0da3e306221d34b56ab4d5de6f1bb41.png

Edited by Daniel*
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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted (edited)

*Reads the comments and thinks it’s all gone wrong.

*Looks at the output and it is brilliant.

P.S. Why do people continue to pay any notice to the GEM? Utterly useless model for our part of the world.

Edited by MattStoke
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GEM has core of cold hitting SE England down into France

gem-1-222.png?00

There has been a correction S overnight of the coldest uppers...something we don't want to see continue as we move forward.

For Southern England there’s much less room for error. I fail to see how we’ll avoid these deep cold uppers even ECM 12Z had -13C uppers for a time, and that was an outlier..

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Popular Post
Posted

For those getting up to have a sneaky peak at the  Gfs 0z go back to bed and sleep well. It’s awesome!

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Popular Post
Posted

Lol this run is going to Get ,many places   Buried are going tunder inches of snow it’s insane 

some unbelievable comments in here also ,how can some be so negative after what the charts show,gem would get half the country cut off with snow and ice days too.

hate the negativity in here sometimes when it looks so exciting,and chance  of an historic period of weather.

I said chance ok :cc_confused:

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

*Reads the comments and thinks it’s all gone wrong.

*Looks at the output and it is brilliant.

P.S. Why do people continue to pay any notice to the GEM? Utterly useless model for our part of the world.

GEM is not a useless model only posted lately it has had better verification stats of late than GFS so treat it with respect. 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

For Southern England there’s much less room for error. I fail to see how we’ll avoid these deep cold uppers even ECM 12Z had -13C uppers for a time, and that was an outlier..

It's not a matter of the uppers, it's the instability that you have to consider also. On the ECM 12z it is quite possible that for a large part of the country, -10 uppers are experienced along with it being mainly dry. When you see SLP as high as 1030/1040mb you need the deep blues to be associated with the cold uppers as there would be limited instability to produce the precipitation without the low thicknesses.

ECM1-216.GIF?18-0

Here you can see the greatest instability heads down through central Europe and into France/Spain...that is something we don't want to see.

Edited by CreweCold
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