Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[tight isobar]

Impressive clustering short-mid term.

Yes an' uptick thereafter...but im still to a degree- of the notion the drag down will become more evident as we progress.

The fat bloke needs a top up of pies!!!!

Edited February 18, 2018 by tight isobar

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Looking like a blink and you'll miss it event on the 18z to me. I'd rather a prolonged, dry easterly but to each their own.

Only if you blink for 4 or 5 days and take GFS FI as gospel.

PS

You shouldn't do either of those. 

Anyway, you're weird, not at all like us snow freaks connoisseurs 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Mucka

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Looking like a blink and you'll miss it event on the 18z to me. I'd rather a prolonged, dry easterly but to each their own.

Yes four days of severe cold and heavy snow can be classed as a blink and you'll miss it affair now that the UK weather is being judged against Siberian standards!

[bobbydog]

Just now, Ice Man 85 said:

Looking like a blink and you'll miss it event on the 18z to me. I'd rather a prolonged, dry easterly but to each their own.

when you said "blink" did you mean fall into a coma?

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Looking like a blink and you'll miss it event on the 18z to me. I'd rather a prolonged, dry easterly but to each their own.

Are you havin a laugh

there could be several days of sub zero temps with snow almost anywhere,do you live in the Bahama's.

[Frosty_wsm]

1 hour ago, radiohead said:

Milder air pushing into the far south, but with it comes the prospect of a major snow event for those still hanging on to the very cold air as fronts push up against it.

Now that really would be a kick in the teeth for those of us in the far South if this chart were to verify, hopefully that zero isotherm will be kept clear of the uk if/when any low pressure systems engage the cold air. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Smartie

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

when you said "blink" did you mean fall into a coma?

Not at all, just not keen on the mild muck getting back in so quickly.

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Only if you blink for 4 or 5 days and take GFS FI as gospel.

PS

You shouldn't do either of those. 

Anyway, you're weird, not at all like us snow freaks connoisseurs 

Don't get me wrong, I'd relish the chance of snow if this damn country could cope with it. Anyway, back on topic; you wouldn't think such an apparently "strong" block could break down so fast. Just goes to show though that whatever the synoptics, the GFS is determined to go mild before its run ends.

[Chris D]

30 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Top that for a set of short ensembles.......don't bother, it's impossible.

Edit. Note the tiny scatter at day 8

They really are incredible ensembles!

Can I just say I don't post in here very often at all as I'm what is (probably) known as one of these Netweather 'lurkers'

I took one look at this forum tonight after the ECM 12z tonight and thought the end is nigh...and this cold spell might be odds off, gone in the tipper and burnt by the Atlantic. But actually, you look at the fact that the ECM 12z op is a really big outlier - this really just shows how strong the signal is for the block to set up in this way. The GFS 18z is just outrageous and is (in my honest opinion) an extreme solution.

It seems to me, though, all models have got this block sorted and pretty much nailed. The only question is...just exactly HOW much snow??

Edited February 18, 2018 by Chris D

[radiohead]

Without a doubt the best GEFS in years. Very strong signal for the cold spell to kick in. After that, it's a split with one cluster going with the op and another keeping the cold for longer.

[weirpig]

Gfs control is possibly the coldest run duration wise I've seen since 2010   Very impressive 

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Gfs control is possibly the coldest run duration wise I've seen since 2010   Very impressive 

doesn't have as much support as the OP does though which is a shame. Not really a fan of "short and sweet".

[Smiler1709]

1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

doesn't have as much support as the OP does though which is a shame. Not really a fan of "short and sweet".

Mate go to bed, this could be the most severe cold weather the uk has experienced for years, once the cold is in I will bet that the mild gets pushed back with each run. With snow cover and a extensive cold pool it really will take a lot to budge. That's if the mild even gets in. It's one run and is going against the trend even if it is FI. 

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

doesn't have as much support as the OP does though which is a shame. Not really a fan of "short and sweet".

Sorry?  There are two clusters. One which is milder we're the opp is an outlier towards the end. And the second we're the control is one of the coldest members  so both have some form of support. Anyway way into fi  so not really worth mentioning. Which I did   And now I realise the stupidity of what I did  

[radiohead]

12Z GEM ensemble P14 is wins Chart Of The Day

[Catacol]

Pretty stunning stuff. There arent words really to describe what will happen to the south of England should runs like this verify. 

Chio has already bought the salt. Ha - not going to be much use in half a metre of snow. :-) I tidied out the garage instead today, locating boots, winter coat, gloves, shovel and mini sledges. But to be honest all I really want to be able to do is stare out the window and watch it come down. Better than the flames of an open fire.

Oops - need a model comment. How about this for an 850 temp anomaly?

 

 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Some people worry about too far ahead on here the 00z will be different to the 18z and so on. Looks great to me for a decent cold spell. From next Sat Sun onwards for about 5/6 days then it fantasy Island from then on. They will be wobbles I'm sure and more upgrades from all models. I think it will probs be something in between UKMO and ECM  gfs way too crazy for me personally don't trust until below 72hrs UKMO and ECM better trusted at about 144 give or take gem, jma,navgem il leave to everybody else PS love this forum. Let it snow let it snow let it snow lol. 

[Daniel*]

I wouldn’t bother looking at the model output into March yet the irony of this post.. P1 March comes in with roar.

once this beast is out the way and hopefully we snow starved southerners get enough snow to quench our thirst. I do not see a resumption of normal service, for those in northern Britain the second or third phase could be the most wintriest as we enter March. Retrogression to Greenland with the floodgates opening from the north this could be a very long cold spell, that I see will swallow up much of March.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Daniel*

[Stormeh]

If these charts come off then you guys down south are in for a really memorable cold and snowy event. Very exciting period of weather coming up for cold lovers. The netweather forum will have to move to a bigger server soon as this place will be absolute chaos with people reporting epic snowfall  

[Bottled Snow]

Latest 120 hour fax chart.....notice the warm front in Atlantic west of Ireland facing / heading northwest towards Iceland rather than the normal push eastwards....sure sign of retrogession of cold block...UK and Ireland already in easterly flow ....awaiting infux of very cold uppers and snow from east....stunning output.......night all...

[Chris D]

1 minute ago, Bottled Snow said:

Latest 120 hour fax chart.....notice the warm front in Atlantic west of Ireland facing / heading northwest towards Iceland rather than the normal push eastwards....sure sign of retrogession of cold block...UK and Ireland already in easterly flow ....awaiting infux of very cold uppers and snow from east....stunning output.......night all...

Best chart of any.

[londonblizzard]

Stunning GEFS mean. Don't think I've ever seen it go as low as -12.5.

The control stays -10 for rest of the run!

Edited February 19, 2018 by londonblizzard

[Bottled Snow]

1 minute ago, Chris D said:

Best chart of any.

Yes my interest / excitement only really  gathers pace when cold spells come in to range of Fax charts which are generated with professional met input....excited now...  

[Stu_London]

Bit of a model wobble this evening (ECM geographic, GFS op, progressive) - not uncommon in the 144-240 hour range. The temptation when stellar charts are churned out on consecutive outputs is to forget that they at a range where verification is at a very low percentage, especially when they are displaying the severe weather that is craved by so many.

The good news is that the poorer charts are also still in FI, so a lot can still change and as we have seen before with SSW's the range of outcomes on offer varies wildly for a few days.

At least Thursday, I would say, until any specifics can be nailed, assuming tonight's trend isn't the start of the implosion of the cold spell.

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Stu_London

[Daniel*]

Holy mackerel have you ever seen anything as notably cold and impressive and extensive as that? Just incredible from EC ens mean. Siberian express slamming into Europe, choo choo terminating at Camborne. 

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Daniel*

[Ice Man 85]

22 minutes ago, Gerryhattrick said:

Seems to me that most of your comments are to provoke. You must get a kick out of it ........welcome to my blocked list

 

I'm just saying what I'm seeing. I'm not trying to "provoke" anyone. The GFS 18z OP ushers the cold away faster than what I'd like. I don't see how I'm trying to provoke anyone.