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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Oh my bloody god. The ensembles! I need to lye down. Take this from P7. It’s not even the most extreme! Sunday is a national blizzard day on some of these charts...

Advice. Focus on high res. If it runs as we hope, the rest will follow. 

C6F5A54D-76B5-4AFF-B7E9-EAE045CD7C92.png

Long fetch easterly anyone? 

 

B6105231-1D3E-4B1D-A2B9-EECEB498BDC7.png

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Both NAVGEM and Arpege 18z's are showing the issue that is potentially a real problem for prospects at 96 hrs, namely that bit more energy in to the northern arm of the Jet.

navgem-0-96.png?19-00

GFS looking a bit lonely with it's "clean" evolution now. Great run though.

 

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Projected easterlies then a retrograde of height's into Greenland alowing a renewed push of cold air incoming from the NE,this is incredible stuff,this could turn out to be a memorable event

gensnh-0-1-300.png?18

if this comes off we will be discussing this every winter in the winter thread and would be one for the archives that's for sure

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

look At the cold & PPN from 156 -264

106 hours of sub -10 air & masses of snow with no end in sight!

B7069C7D-1797-4EF1-9637-CFAA26F51BA8.thumb.png.b9f76285e85d7e6a81e12b260477721f.png

&faux 1085 MB over greenland @264 

GFSC00EU18_210_1.png

The Control only gets up to 1080mb... poor show.

Seriously though the 18z ensembles are incredible. Many bring the cold forward to early Saturday and the op is actually somewhat of a mild outlier! :rofl:

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Just now, radiohead said:

Seems to be a lot of support in the GEFS for the op idea of milder air pushing up for the south on the Wednesday/Thursday.

just after the lot of support in the GEFS for a few days of epic snowfall for the majority of the country....

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Top that for a set of short ensembles.......don't bother, it's impossible.

Diagramme GEFS

Edit. Note the tiny scatter at day 8

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Seems to be a lot of support in the GEFS for the op idea of milder air pushing up for the south on the Wednesday/Thursday.

Look at the control that is the ideal rout we want to go with the pv dropping into Scandinavia and the high taking over Greenland. Which would swing the winds round from an easterly to an north easterly. The warming supports this and at that rang the models will not have an handle of that evolution. But looking at previous winters where blocking has moved from Scandinavia to Greenland this it the most likely outcome. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
7 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

the ensemble 'mean' should be renamed the ensemble 'generous'

gensnh-21-1-192.thumb.png.0bed5c78942512bf6555d5565491f1e9.png

Best mean I’ve ever seen what’s surreal is GFS op wasn’t progressive in its spread it all feels too good to be true but for once we a fighting chance. :shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

I may regret saying this but I think that is the best and coldest set of high res GEFS I have ever seen. A true benchmark. FYI arpege has barely shifted - if anything it looks slightly more favourable with a poise towards the NE rather than N. Flaming heck. Dare I say only one way to go from here?! Or too soon? Seriously though, expectation management after those...

i mean, come on. Cambridge has two clusters for next Sunday: one with uppers of -10, the other with uppers of -14. Smack my ass and call me Julie. 

 

54FB3551-A7F3-4F39-9B7B-0FE10EC32828.gif

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

One word!!!

BANK!!

5F3EC2A0-4B15-4AEC-93FB-8BC9896C458F.thumb.gif.88b04a0c41db647a78800bfdab5f6393.gif

We can worry later about that low res stuff?

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
9 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Seems to be a lot of support in the GEFS for the op idea of milder air pushing up for the south on the Wednesday/Thursday.

I was just to about to post that  Thursday is 4 days away and will probably change. But then I realised you ment next Thursday 11 days away .  Breakdown nailed then  

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Seems to be a lot of support in the GEFS for the op idea of milder air pushing up for the south on the Wednesday/Thursday.

Yes, and it does seem a logical end process. I suspect the GEFS are being overly aggressive though with this.

TBH if this cold spell happens as is being shown it can be 20c from the middle of next week and I wouldn't care :D. I'd bank any of these runs without a second thought. ECM is also good for further down the line but given the time of year the long game isn't as attractive.

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Do you go around armed with a marker pen- and write on walls-... KILLJOY WAS HERE?

Edit;, the supporting data (gfs) is very solid!!!

Not at all. Great GFS.

Just saying that those ignoring what is patently evident across the models, the op runs at any rate, (apart from JMA/GFS) probably should be discussing it. It's being ignored though...

I guess people want a good night's sleep.

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Seems to be a lot of support in the GEFS for the op idea of milder air pushing up for the south on the Wednesday/Thursday.

yeah looks about 75% go with the op 3 days very cold/snowy then milder from the south a couple went a different way at 162 taking the remains of the vortex across Svalbard stopping the block going north keeping the lows to the south then dropping the vortex down through scandie to give us this

gensnh-17-1-240.png

hope to see this start to appear on the ops

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Just now, Steve Murr said:

look At the cold & PPN from 156 -264

106 hours of sub -10 air & masses of snow 

Precisely and the high is a little further North than GFS through the same mid term.

And this is a general forum post not direct response.

People who are saying the GFS is too far North and attributing the breakdown to this are not seeing the whole picture.

It is not so much the latitude of the high (not saying it can't be too far North, but it ain't in these runs) but the longitude that is the issue with GFS (if there is an issue) - that being the core heights are too far East.

We only get partial retrogression with a much weakened high because the core of the high is sucked into Russia. There are ways this may not happen and others that even if it does still have the Atlantic behave - JMA being an example.

We barely get any retrogression at all with the high sinking away SE but the Atlantic disrupts far more than GFS FI (shock horror on that one!) so we low pressure tot he south disrupt West to East and get an Atlantic ridge behind, staying cold.

Maybe the low slowly moves North giving snow and a very slow breakdown or maybe it gets a little further East and keeps the cold air in place.

JN264-21.GIF?18-12

The high not retrogressing fully is the reason that ECM has low pressure over Russia day 10 and GFS high pressure and such a feeble high cell.

ECH1-240.GIF?18-0gfsnh-0-234.png

GFS Op V P9 Very similar latitude, main difference core heights further West on P9 and polar heights North of Scandi

gfsnh-0-192.png?18gensnh-9-1-192.png

Result of that?

GFS Op the high mostly gets sucked into Russia while P9 retrogessess the high

gfsnh-0-228.png?18gensnh-9-1-228.png

gensnh-9-1-300.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, weirpig said:

I was just to about to post that next Thursday is 4 days away and will probably change. But then I realised you ment next Thursday 11 days away .  Breakdown nailed then  

Indeed... and once we have the deep cold set in, trough disruption will become a factor....

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Wouldn’t be like the GFS to be over progressive with the breakdown of a cold pattern ;-)

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I was just to about to post that next Thursday is 4 days away and will probably change. But then I realised you ment next Thursday 11 days away .  Breakdown nailed then  

Nobody said breakdown nailed? Commenting on the fact that there is strong support in the 18Z ENS for the op idea of milder air pushing up for the south in that timeframe.

Stunning short range ensembles. Almost every member with uppers of sub -10.

graphe3_1000_354_110___.gif 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

One word!!!

BANK!!

5F3EC2A0-4B15-4AEC-93FB-8BC9896C458F.thumb.gif.88b04a0c41db647a78800bfdab5f6393.gif

We can worry later about that low res stuff?

That might be the coldest I’ve ever seen modelled capital frozen by next weekend you’d think there won’t be anymore shock value but it keeps on coming. I’m loving it.

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale

Looking like a blink and you'll miss it event on the 18z to me. I'd rather a prolonged, dry easterly but to each their own.

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