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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

GFS is best for deep cold and snow thanks to the high being further north, which allows a stronger easterly with lower heights. However, it does mean the Atlantic gets through eventually.

ECM is best for a long cold spell thanks to the high being further south and then retrogressing to Greenland. However, it does mean a drier easterly with the deepest cold to our south.

A half way house is often a good bet and would be the best of both worlds.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
Just now, MattStoke said:

GFS is best for deep cold and snow thanks to the high being further north, which allows a stronger easterly with lower heights. However, it does mean the Atlantic gets through eventually.

 

ECM is best for a long cold spell thanks to the high being further south and then retrogressing to Greenland. However, it does mean a drier easterly with the deepest cold to our south.

A half way house is often a good bet and would be the best of both worlds.

 

A half way house would be perfect.

A half way house being the high  being a lit bit further south than the GFS but further north than the ECM then?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I'm not getting the high is too far North comments at all.

It is over Iceland, I guess that means a Greenland high is useless for cold then?

There are many ways we can have the high at that latitude and still maintain the cold into FI and I will be amazed if some of those do not pop up in the ensembles as evidence of this.

And at what point is it too high lat? When it is dragging in -15 uppers and giving widespread snow for a few days or in deep FI when there is a breakdown?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Just now, Deep Snow please said:

A half way house being the high  being a lit bit further south than the GFS but further north than the ECM then?

Bingo!

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

Well, tonights GFS's run and we (as in i), looks set for 4 possibly 5 days of cold and/or potential snowfall, and then it gets broken down at little too easily and quickly from the south. Any one else thinks this, but it is still 5 or 6 days away, so any possibilties are still on the table. 

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Posted
  • Location: Croxley
  • Location: Croxley
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

I'm not getting the high is too far North comments at all.

It is over Iceland, I guess that means a Greenland high is useless for cold then?

There are many ways we can have the high at that latitude and still maintain the cold into FI and I will be amazed if some of those do not pop up in the ensembles as evidence of this.

And at what point is it too high lat? When it is dragging in -15 uppers and giving widespread snow for a few days or in deep FI when there is a breakdown?

 

When the high is dragging in the -15 uppers, of course. The isobars are not close enough together because the high is too far north - it's a disgrace really!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

What chart over the last few days including the retrogression would people suggest is the perfect half way house? Yesterdays 18zgfs?

Take the ECM and shunt it further north , that’s the perfect outcome .

Synoptically excellent  with more cold to head sw from Scandi after day ten.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summer, Cold winter
  • Location: Netherlands

Don't forget that the second blow on the remnants of the split strat. vortex is currently taking place. Anything beyound T144 is therefore soo uncertain!

It will take some time again before the models get a hold on this...... but that is what makes model-watching great!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Take the ECM and shunt it further north , that’s the perfect outcome .

Synoptically excellent  with more cold to head sw from Scandi after day ten.

 

Agreed! A reload from the North East! Would be incredible! It's normally a half way house but how often is the half way house the perfect scenario. Were in such a strong position 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The control run bullish about getting the beef on the table at just 144

carve-ry anyone:D

gensnh-0-1-144.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Control gets frigid uppers into the east coast by 150 :shok:

gens-0-0-150.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

 

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Todays 12z JMA !!!!

Unpossible!

JN168-21.GIF?18-12

The high is too far North! :wallbash:

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
1 minute ago, radiohead said:

The GEFS mean has colder uppers over the SE than the operational run at 156!

gens-21-0-156.pnggfs-1-156.png?18

 

 

What in the name of all that's bloody holy?

Totally expected the operational run to the a cold outlier, not part of the main cluster? Flipping heck. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The control following the op.

gensnh-0-1-192.png?18gfsnh-0-192.png?18

mean:shok:

gensnh-21-1-192.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

How about this for a 192 mean.  There's clearly very good agreement in the ensembles.

gensnh-21-1-192.png

And the 850's mean include -12's clipping the east coast....terrific stuff

gensnh-21-0-192.png

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.

So..... after seeing only the odd snowflake in the wind and no lying snow for 5 years, on the calculation of 1mm of rain equals 7cm of snow I’m expecting to see 92.4cm of snow on March 1st....... errmm... ok then!! ?? bring it on I say!! 

Loving these charts.... IF ONLY!! 

F46954FB-0B10-44DB-9A47-F72842033A49.jpeg

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