Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[lorenzo]

Lots to like on this run, enjoying watching the low south of Greenland just getting completely shut down and barrelled North in the face of the block. No messing.

 

[Mike Poole]

My worries after last night's pub run pale into insignificance if this one verifies. 

If this run came off I'm worried I might have kittens.  Even though I'm male and not a cat.  It's concerning because I'm not sure I'm competent to look after them.

GFS at T198

[Optimus Prime]

Two charts below showing the projected 850 temperature and corresponding 2m temperature:

Like a warm knife through butter. The arctic gets drained of it's cold and as a result Europe freezes along with the western portion of the US.

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

???????

before yesterday morning it hadn’t even found the scandi high for the middle of this week. And now because it shows accelerated cold, we’re going to promote it to be the most reliable output ????

come on peeps

The chance of accelerated cold is on the table -as is delayed. Neither is currently more likely than the other.

You know how it works...

Given these synoptics ??

[bluearmy]

So ecm is worryingly too far south day 9 and gfs becoming worryingly north at the same timescale on the next op.

stick with the means for the time being., (assuming they show continuity) 

 

[WalsallWeather123]

Just now, bluearmy said:

So ecm is worryingly too far south day 9 and gfs becoming worryingly north at the same timescale on the next op.

stick with the means for the time being., (assuming they show continuity) 

 

GFS 18z OP is perfect. Not too far north at all

[ICE COLD]

420 members viewing . Probably something to do with this ?. 

[Deep Snow please]

Will be interesting to see where this GFS run sits in the ensembles, if it's within the main grouping then we're looking at something special, got a feeling it'll be on the cold side though. 

[Jason H]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

420 members viewing . Probably something to do with this ?. 

Cold, heavy snow, brutal.Shame it's 8 days away

[The Eagle]

Looks like a live hard, die young event on the GFS...Cold air clearing south coast of England by the Tuesday.

[pureasthedriven]

15 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

177 and we're already freezing.

 

And there’s the new screensaver... to replace the one from yesterday - oh and the day before! ??

Edited February 18, 2018 by pureasthedriven

[radiohead]

Milder air pushing into the far south, but with it comes the prospect of a major snow event for those still hanging on to the very cold air as fronts push up against it.

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Looks like a live hard, die young event on the GFS...Cold air clearing south coast of England by the Tuesday.

Why the 0z ECM solution was great the flow is more direct and less likely to become more SEly 

[Deep Snow please]

Unfortunately getting a bit mild towards the end for my liking.

[January Snowstorm]

2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Looks like a live hard, die young event on the GFS...Cold air clearing south coast of England by the Tuesday.

Cheap flight to Cork they be grand lol

Buried under feet of snow!!!

Jokes aside I think the background signals will ensure the cold lasts much much longer

[Mucka]

Just get me to 144, then I know the cold will be locked in for 5 to 7 days guaranteed (no matter what GFS currently shows in FI) with ice days and snow just about anywhere and everywhere over that period. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Mucka

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

GFS 18z OP is perfect. Not too far north at all

We’ll agree to disagree on that ...........

[Nights King]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Milder air pushing into the far south, but with it comes the prospect of a major snow event for those still hanging on to the very cold air as fronts push up against it.

Snow north of the m4 anyone... 

[Ice Day]

OK, whilst it looks like this run is petering out, the most important part of the run is 0-144 or 168 max.  Based on those timeframes, we could hardly be in a better position.  Remember, anything beyond 168, be it good or bad, is just for fun only.

Tonight's 168 and we're back to a nationwide event.  Fingers crossed for more tomorrow.

   

[ICE COLD]

Just to compare Day 10 ECM and GFS 18z . Chalk and cheese 

[nick sussex]

A very good GFS run for most of the high resolution  but not enough trough disruption to the sw and the blocking too far north later.

So it depends on how lucky you feel as to what you want to verify !

The ECM delivers an omega block and extended cold , the GFS is one of those squeeze all the fun in but you might end up with a hangover later runs.

The GFS might navigate a delicate balancing act if you can get more trough disruption to the sw with more energy sliding much further east and the block developing a bit further to the ne later .

No ones mentioned the shortwave just west of Norway around T132 hrs, this thankfully gets sent packing as the heights increase to the nw which helps to smoothe the flow out once again .

The depth of cold shown is exceptional for this late into the winter season.

Anyway at least that’s another run out of the way with no major early dramas .

[daz_4]

Obviously FI, but hopefully GFS won't verify. Cold air gone before you know it. ECM seems much better for something more long lasting.

[radiohead]

A very snowy breakdown on the 18Z but turning quickly to rain. A bit early to be worrying about the breakdown though

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

How old are you? 

He is Dr who

anyway back to the here and now,the 18z again showing the pv lifting out of Canada to siberia and in our part of the world it is just another variation of the theme but the broadscale/macroscale is the same.

[pages]

Its looks perfect at 168 for epic spell and does deliver for a  few days but then starts to go wrong at 198, with the low to west of Spain phasing with the short wave over Poland,

wouldn't the low to West of Spain at 162 more likely send some energy under the block in to the Med??