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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Just a quick little comparison at 120 hours: the GFS 18Z has the Northern UK High a touch further West compared to the GFS 12Z run. Plus, the 500mb thicknesses accompanying the Easterly flow over the U.K. are a little lower (more greens) and, as such, is more unstable. The -5 850hPa temperatures also cover 99% of the U.K on the drunken GFS (18Z) run for Friday. Few odd wintry showers towards the East could be possible.

GFS 18Z

E94AFD76-6AC4-4743-8550-4F8F7F3603A6.thumb.png.5827b99b8929b5e9e659270700ea9715.pngF0F18FE0-A148-4F1B-BAD8-8A56E3347D39.thumb.png.7638084d62200bc50b52f5c8cf9690e8.png

GFS 12Z

2339BE5A-09D2-459D-B870-4A3801B69124.thumb.png.ab39257d29a6dce493e336e912e849ca.pngB77E0FC8-CE45-4D73-9879-013494EB96B1.thumb.png.32bca9752c900f241e585bf1ae7b50b3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Just look at all that heading straight for us!!!. 

How nice would it be not to here the word MARGINAL 

552A155C-0761-47D2-B920-62651D236C67.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I am going to have to say it...

W.T.F:D

gfsnh-0-156.png?18

THAT'S A 2010 STYLE SYNOPTIC

gfsnh-2010121700-0-6.thumb.png.5ad483ee9a06744c6b22aa8a2a6f6497.png

well not quiet but we are getting there.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Just keep pinching yourselves, these runs are really happening and it's not at 384.  I'm fast running out of words, but 162 is incredible/amazing/unbelievable/fantastic (delete as applicable)

gfsnh-0-162.png?18 gfs-1-162.png?18

 

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Stunning north-hem synoptic.

Its cold all the way from here.

And greeny high looks odds on, as the hemispheric clock turns...

gfsnh-0-138.png

Might be worth having a look at some historic Northern Hemisphere plots after. I really can't imagine better placements of high and low pressure that would benefit the UK for very cold and snow opportunities. 

Very close to an historic event; that is as we move into high resolution.

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

"Best run I've ever seen"

"Best run in large teapot"

"Best run since the internet era began"

All the above apply to this. It's simply perfect, that's the only explanation I have.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
1 minute ago, radiohead said:

The snow machine kicks in on Sunday morning. Bitterly cold in the east.

gfs-0-162.png?18

Tbh I think there will be snow showers pushing into the east by Friday looking at all this and just getting heavier and more widespread over time

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Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen

I have to keep pinching myself here to witness what I'm seeing as good as 1897 it's absolutely incredible headlines next weekend UK frozen 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

 

gfs-1-168.png

gfs-0-162.png...

 

Amazing!!!!!

Im stumped for much to say...for once!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Low pressure cutting in from the SW could be fun.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

"Best run I've ever seen"

"Best run in large teapot"

"Best run since the internet era began"

All the above apply to this. It's simply perfect, that's the only explanation I have.

Can be applied to most model runs the past few days. Brr!

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I don't think there are any words that can describe these synoptics, lol. All my SSW dreams coming true - this is the perfect SSW trop response that excited me so much 2 weeks ago. Can't believe that it can come true - Can it?

It'll be a big win for weather forecasting if it does! I've heard that the January 1987 cold wave was a nightmare to forecast until very close to the event. Whereas the ECM the other day kicked this easterly chasing off.

If it does come together you deserve a congratulations from me for calling it when I was throwing in the towel.

Just hope the ECM and UKMO follow the GFS. Whatever happens the cold pool is advancing west and with the latest data fed into the 18z GFS confidence is growing a bit.

Fingers crossed we have good agreement on tomorrows 00z's :D

A Channel low would be the icing on the cake :D

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
17 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

No- overall yes within 144 range!!

???????

before yesterday morning it hadn’t even found the scandi high for the middle of this week. And now because it shows accelerated cold, we’re going to promote it to be the most reliable output ????

come on peeps

The chance of accelerated cold is on the table -as is delayed. Neither is currently more likely than the other.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Omg -19 850s in the North Sea at t180 ?

IMG_1618.PNG

-13 air to the west of Ireland!

ive been on this website since 2003 - these are the most insane runs I have ever seen - they can’t be true can they?

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