Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, ScottishSnowStorm said:

You should be using the 126 12z for side by side comparison 

Yes,sorry

my bad,getting square eyes looking in to too much detail lol.

[Deep Snow please]

In the freezer by the weekend going by this then. Is the GFS normally a more reliable short range model?

[The Eagle]

GFS does seem a little more progressive here. Dud run 

[Fingers]

Heights advancing more northerly on this run rather than northeast, better aligned @ 108. The train is inbound! Going to be a good run. Doesn’t look to high to me. 

[Daniel*]

Deepest cold uppers -20C more extensive too wee quicker too !

Edited February 18, 2018 by Daniel*

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Given the timescales here its just hard to believe that GFS will be wrong about bringing the cold earlier. To see a chart like this at 102 hours is simply jaw dropping!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=0

 

 

Equally hard to believe the ECM would be wrong at that timescale too though - I still favour a slower evolution despite the GFS, we'd need to see a pretty big shift in the ENS/EPS to signal a faster evolution. 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

In the freezer by the weekend going by this then. Is the GFS normally a more reliable short range model?

Are any these days???

No- overall yes within 144 range!!

[ICE COLD]

This is mad , proper cold by the weekend ?

Edited February 18, 2018 by ICE COLD

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Not sure why people are saying its too far north on this GFS, its pretty much in the exact same position as the 12z!
 

Indeed, I think the stakes are so high now that every frame is being poured over with a jewellers eyepiece and there's a bit of 'over analysing' going on.  Anyway, out to 126 and it's looking absolutely superb, an upgrade on the 12z thus far I would say

 

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

In the freezer by the weekend going by this then. Is the GFS normally a more reliable short range model?

Though not what the Beeb have just said but they are fully behind the idea of very cold air and snow after the weekend 

This looks a day or so early compared to the beeb

[Mike Poole]

Take that back about too far north, sorry,  looking good at T132

[Allseasons-Si]

The cold pool advancing a lot further west on this run at 120

WOW look at the difference between gfs and ecm

 

[pureasthedriven]

36 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Doesn't that depending on what the job is? Up here with the current synoptics I'd be disappointed at less than 6 inches to a foot, I'm sure many down south would be satisfied with 3-4 inches, it's all relative to our standard winter experiences since the last big ones at the start of the decade.

The colder the uppers the better, the convective issue is naturally an important one so I'd say -12 to -20's would be more useful for us, but -8s and -10s would produce snow.

 

Everything is relative. When you’ve seen but one dusting in five years, I’ll take 3-4 inches all day long! No, my point was about snow falling in uppers of sub five (it can, of course, we know this). I get the ice day and snow staying on the ground shenanigans. I was fishing around the necessity of sub tens for lying snow, given ‘potential’ moderation of cold nearer the time. Let’s hope the forecast uppers are near correct. I remember walking to school in ‘87 in what, on hindsight, were probably -17 850s - fun but oh my goodness, cold! 

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Equally hard to believe the ECM would be wrong at that timescale too though - I still favour a slower evolution despite the GFS, we'd need to see a pretty big shift in the ENS/EPS to signal a faster evolution. 

Indeed, but when were dealing with days 3 and 4 the extra few hours later that this run comes out becomes a very big factor. 

[chionomaniac]

What we are witnessing from the 18Z is a stunning synoptic evolution. Enjoy it.

[tight isobar]

Stunning north-hem synoptic.

Its cold all the way from here.

And greeny high looks odds on, as the hemispheric clock turns...

[markw2680]

If this from the gfs actually happens I think we would be well and truly in the sh## lol

might be stuck in our houses for a while with too much snow ⛄️ 

[WalsallWeather123]

Heights are a tad further north on the 18z but not as much as I thought at the start of the run. Looking forward to the rest of the run, will be one for the archives.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

beast waiting! don't want it too far south though like EC 12Z, EC 12Z great run for Nick S, but not many other members on here. but GFS beast looks near

[Mike Poole]

Retrogression as early as T144 on this one, wow

[ICE COLD]

Here the exstreme cold comes ?

[metaltron]

An enjoyable run so far, definitely a shift toward the UKMO from the GFS tonight, but thankfully not a total backtrack. Note how the area of high pressure sat over the UK on the GFS helps funnel the cold further south - the UKMO makes much less of this. The ECM is extreme in the other direction- it leaves too much high pressure over the UK and the cold goes too far south!

[Derecho]

Not much to stop this cold pool heading to the UK now....

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

What we are witnessing from the 18Z is a stunning synoptic evolution. Enjoy it.

Whole heartedly agree...

This is about as perfect alignment as you could wish to see

Edited February 18, 2018 by CreweCold

[Deep Snow please]

Starting to get good.