Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, tomjwlx said:

Can someone explain how reliable the ICON model is as reading on here people keep mentioning it but as far as i'm aware I thought most people followed the GFS, ECM, UKMO and GEM?

No one knows for sure this must be the first winter I’ve seen it being used. I do not think it’s a bad model af all it was the most persistent with Scandi high and easterlies and this is happening..

[Met4Cast]

Good to see the ICON saying no thank you to the ECM after it's earlier output, though hardly surprising given the ECM was an outlier.

[kate1]

37 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Hello to the Net Wx comic, I suppose it's not tea you are drinking A

Good to see you on form and markedly misunderstanding the models as usual

take care young fella

oh just to confirm that the flow is going to come from east not west from later this week and into March, below the links to the latest NOAA 500 mb anomaly charts. They have been consistent for several days now with what they show this evening. Just how cold and how much snow not even Anyweather has any real idea. The synoptic models will to and fro about this over then next 4-5 days. So really interesting model watching.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

I  have nothing to add in terms of the models because I am not sufficiently knowledgeable so it may be that this post should be removed - but surely this has to be THE post of the 17/18 winter? - as a beginner I have been horrified by the wilful misinterpretation of the models by some on here - it makes it much harder for those of us who are still learning. Anyway, thanks to the many posters, johnholmes of course included, who take a more intelligent and objective approach, and are keen to impart their knowledge to others - it's much appreciated.

[Met4Cast]

GFS an improvement early doors, Easterly flow by 72hrs. High more amplified.

[inghams85]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

GFS an improvement early doors, Easterly flow by 72hrs. High more amplified.

That's the best 72hour chart of the winter bar none so far!

[ColdFront80]

I understand the fun of looking at Day 10 but 9 and 10 really come off, i think the fact there was so much consistency. Now i'm back in the real world might not come off.

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

18z rolling now - what do we want, I mean a repeat of last night's pub run would be unlikely, I would suggest.   

I'd take a run that doesn't follow the GFS 0z, or the ECM 12z model output.  Anything else is fine.

Looks unlikely the GFS will follow the ECM as at +66 the GFS looks better already 

Way more amplified!!

 

Edited February 18, 2018 by karlos1983

[weirpig]

Well the gfs already bringing very cold uppers closer to the uk compared to its last run.  Quite an upgrade 

[WalsallWeather123]

Looks like heights will build too far north in this run of the GFS. HP getting squeezed further north at T84

[ScottishSnowStorm]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes was just looking at that as you posted

120 18z v 123 12z

You should be using the 126 12z for side by side comparison 

[tight isobar]

gfs hell bent on getting the easterly in early- and modeling the siberian injection of cold, more notably

also the iberian prop up feature is in almost perfect placement....for align and aid of advection westwards...

Edited February 18, 2018 by tight isobar

[MattStoke]

High ridging further north on the 18z. The opposite to the ECM. Just don’t want it to be too far north.

Edited February 18, 2018 by MattStoke

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Looks like heights will build too far north in this run of the GFS. HP getting squeezed further north at T84

Are you bantering? It's absolutely perfectly fine

Absolutely epic run is incoming.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Looks like heights will build too far north in this run of the GFS. HP getting squeezed further north at T84

Yeah terrible 

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

High ridding further north on the 18z. The opposite to the ECM. Just don’t want it to be too far north.

Yes, looks like it might go down the 06Z route more than the 12Z, but a lot of variables so let's see what happens this time.

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z gfs is in high spirits so far and canceling out the 12z ecm at just 72 hrs,stella pub run coming up me thinks,

[Deep Snow please]

GFS seems to be willing for cold but could still go either way in the remainder.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

High ridding further north on the 18z. The opposite to the ECM. Just don’t want it to be too far north.

Yes, that's the worry with this one, it does look very north at T102, offsets the ECM anyway!

[tight isobar]

The siberian express- in overide mode 18z...

Coming straight to station uk....

Top run coming again...gfs 18z

Edit ;.

Sometimes its easier on the nerves for some i feel to click the 850 hpa button as a run evolves....for the sake of nerves and knee jerk react!!

Edited February 18, 2018 by tight isobar

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well it's clear to see how much of an effect the very early initial stages have on the general evolution. The 18z GFS has us into a cold E'ly by Friday...a very quick and clean evolution so far

[Met4Cast]

I absolutely love how the lows are just lining up over Greenland not able to really do anything and we see constant WAA pumped up into the Arctic. Absolutely beautiful synoptic.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, that's the worry with this one, it does look very north at T102, offsets the ECM anyway!

It looks great and ‘clean’ strongest heights centred over Scotland and just north so a bit confused..

[Jason M]

Given the timescales here its just hard to believe that GFS will be wrong about bringing the cold earlier. To see a chart like this at 102 hours is simply jaw dropping!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=0

 

 

[Derecho]

Not sure why people are saying its too far north on this GFS, its pretty much in the exact same position as the 12z!

Anyhow Scandi high is more organised and as a result the cold pool looks like its headed to the UK by Friday! Lovely stuff

[pureasthedriven]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well if it’s sub -10c then

eps: 70% T204/T240

gefs: 70% T192/T252

thats a tad larger than 20% ...............

and this is a dry continental source, not cold zonal across the Atlantic. 

With the continental source and thus lower dew points, we’re probably not going to ‘need’ sub tens for snow are we (notwithstanding the chicken and egg of lower 850s helping convection et al)? I’ll take ‘em, because this has been the winter of marginal down here. But what do you think might do ‘the job’? I know - how long’s a piece of string, right...?