Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Jason M]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Well the ECM will keep us all on our toes and shows a possible way things could unravel. Was just about to tell family and friends about the beast....not now as things can still go wrong.

Probably just another variation and still very cold

Its still a beast. Its just a dry beast.

Anyways, not worth worrying about tbh at that range.

 

[Daniel*]

Just now, CreweCold said:

What am I smoking? Check day 9 and you'll see what I saw coming...

I must say I didn’t see it slipping south like that still very cold in Southern England less so in Crewe..

[The Eagle]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

A frustrating chart if ever I saw one. Snowmen on the French Riviera. Let's see how it sits in the ENS and what the 0Z will bring later.

That would be Feb 2012 all over again. Very possible - hope it's not a trend

[ICE COLD]

Day ten is still a stunning chart 

[Singularity]

Alright so the retrogression of the whole block is a bit too fast on this run and the jet stream into Europe shut down too soon.

12z:  00z: 

You can see how LP is driving into NE Scandinavia instead of NW Siberia on this run - it's in a right rush to commence the Greenland blocking spell that has long been signalled as the response to the second major warming in the stratosphere.

Would you make that trade-off? Seems a bit unrealistically quick to me though!

[karlos1983]

You can’t tell me @nick sussex isn’t viewing this and thinking oooh.... nuts to the uk show me the cold pool ?

surely would be the ultimate test of loyalty 

[nick sussex]

The ECM now developing an omega block which means the trough dropping south into Scandi .

A locked in cold pattern.

I’m surprised though its taken the cold not far enough north.

Hopefully the middle ground solution can deliver the deep cold and the omega block.

Its very hard to criticize the ECM run in terms of pattern but I understand some members are going to be a bit irritated by the cold pool not scoring a direct hit .

 

[blizzard81]

Ecm puts up the dreaded UK winter shield. 

[MattStoke]

Not a great run but would rather the ECM had it further south after the UKMO had it further north. Gives scope for a middle ground (i.e. GFS) and if they had both gone north we'd be worried about the Atlantic getting in.

Trends and all that shizz. 

[Rayth]

Interesting to see where this ECM run sits when the ‘clustered’ bearded man does his sterling work later @Man With Beard

[Badgers01]

28 minutes ago, chris55 said:

EC keeps it cool/cold at the surface with milder 850s being dragged in from the south east, nothing extreme at this stge

 

I know it’s just one run but this is not what we want too see - we were meant to be in a super chilled polar continent flow not warming uppers 

 

 

 

 

[Ayrshire weather]

Wobbles will happen however these charts are still 2 weeks away....

Let's get the cold in and locked over the weekend once the cold Easterly flow is over the UK then hopefully it will get colder and colder...

Models will probably continue to change until around Friday coming before next week starts to show a decent trend...

Remember once the cold arrives models will show better as models are still struggling with the SSE impacts! 

[Frosty.]

Very disappointing Ecm 12z, only drops to minus 13 850's further south / southeast..just not good enough is it!!!

[Daniel*]

My issue with the ECM is the clocking is ticking in Southern England.. it speaks volumes despite -13C uppers reaching SE for a time, it’s loathed. Will have to wait for ens hoping blocking is further north..

[Rayth]

When you said you were going to pray this morning , you didn’t tell us it was to steal our uppers Mr @nick sussex

[Catacol]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Catcol’s southerly shift but on the plus side, another day 10 plus corker likely as a trough drops in to our ne 

variation on a theme

Yes - ECM at 216 shows the option that is definitely on the table... though with luck a minority position.

 

Note the depth of the storm track to the west firing towards Morocco and the undercut from the east also a long way south. End product is a high pressure stretching all the way from Greenland to southern England, but nearly all the snow over France.

Fingers crossed this is a blip and not a new trend. It has been nagging away at me for a few days given expected response to the SSW... and the SSW might just be SO good that the coldest and most unstable air ends up ridiculously far south. It would be incredibly ironic if the disruption of the westerly flow was so extreme that it put the jet so far to the south that we missed it altogether.

Awaiting the EPS ensemble with a certain degree of nervousness.....

Edited February 18, 2018 by Catacol

[bobbydog]

today on the catwalk, the ECM is modelling a little low-cut number showing us the long route to narnia.

next up, it will be modelling some fashionable deep blues for the UK, with a splash of white up to the knees. 

coming soon to a high street near you...

[parrotingfantasist]

The ECM often hasn't been able to put two and two together this winter let alone now be magically consistent each run. A run like this is inevitable to put us back in our place. 

[The Eagle]

Worth noting the damage on the ECM is done by 96 hrs and not in lala land.

 

Note the trajectory of height increases is more north east rather than north ala GFS etc..

 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

You can’t tell me @nick sussex isn’t viewing this and thinking oooh.... nuts to the uk show me the cold pool ?

surely would be the ultimate test of loyalty 

No really I’m not bothered about the cold pool down here.

We don’t need that deeper cold for snow here and I wanted it into the UK. 

I’m lucky here with the mountains so won’t begrudge you guys getting the deepest cold.

Lets hope for a blended solution as that means you get the best in terms of longevity for cold and snow.

The omega block is like the Holy Grail and the another shot of very cold air is likely to head sw but I understand that at the moment that’s not really going to make up for the deep cold miss in some parts of the UK.

Anyway I’ll get my coat! 

 

[Day 10]

Well I am over the moon all these charts are at 120 anything past that can & WILL change, so apart from enjoying some eye candy charts further out why worry.

5 days out and we are in a FANTASTIC position.

[Southender]

23 hours ago, Southender said:

Anyone concerned the coldest uppers could drift south of us as has happened so many times in the past? Or am I worrying too much? ?

Well the EC has just compounded my fears from yesterday. Not too concerned just yet but not something I want to see much more of in further output...

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM now developing an omega block which means the trough dropping south into Scandi .

A locked in cold pattern.

I’m surprised though its taken the cold not far enough north.

Hopefully the middle ground solution can deliver the deep cold and the omega block.

Its very hard to criticize the ECM run in terms of pattern but I understand some members are going to be a bit irritated by the cold pool not scoring a direct hit .

 

With the ECM, the issue is not even wholly about missing the coldest uppers etc...it's more fundamental than that. We miss the most unstable flow (even in the SE) as the main thrust of cold and instability heads more centrally through Europe. 

At the end of Feb/early March, air temperatures in the sun can easily reach a few degrees above freezing even with -12 upper air. Lower thicknesses/a more unstable flow can negate this somewhat given limited solar heating through the day due to the precipitation.

The ECM 12z run would, for most of the country, bring conditions on the ground that were not unusual at all for the time of year. Though there would be some fairly cold nights!

[BlueHedgehog074]

19 minutes ago, Mucka said:

JMA siding with UKMO and GFS so that the more favoured route perhaps?

 

Would also say that the 12Z NAVGEM is, generally, also taking the JMA, UKMO and GFS’s side!

Very cold 850 hPa air (-10 and below) covering most of the U.K. by next Sunday. Another model that seems to be quicker with the deeper cold Easterly evolution. ❄️

[Gustywind]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

With the ECM, the issue is not even wholly about missing the coldest uppers etc...it's more fundamental than that. We miss the most unstable flow (even in the SE) as the main thrust of cold and instability heads more centrally through Europe. 

At the end of Feb/early March, air temperatures in the sun can easily reach a few degrees above freezing even with -12 upper air. Lower thicknesses/a more unstable flow can negate this somewhat given limited solar heating through the day due to the precipitation.

The ECM 12z run would, for most of the country, bring conditions on the ground that were not unusual at all for the time of year. Though there would be some fairly cold nights!

On the plus side the UKMO if anything is too far north with the high, so hopefully we’ll see the models converge on the GFS middle ground.