Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[The PIT]

Poor ECM over all. A hint that the really cold air could push south of us leaving on the edge grinding our teeth. Thankfully it's lala land and hopefully not a trend. So GFS 9/10, UKMO 8/10 ECM 5/10 must do better. Next few days will show whether this will be a beast from the east or just a little lamb that nobody really notices. 

[Mike Poole]

Is this a bit of a worry at T216?

Edited February 18, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not sure about this ECM run...it isn't great tbh

Day 8 shows the main thrust of the cold and associated instability into C Europe with our high just a tad too far S

Yeah, dreadful chart, roll on spring.. 

ECM not as great as 00z but it's certainly not as big a disaster and some on here would have you think - Just a variation on the theme, I suspect it'll sit in a minority cluster within the EPS, doesn't quite fit the theme.

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

What are you smoking CC? You are knowledgable but occasionally you leave me stumped! Frigid conditions inbound.

Mate you live in South East London were looking for nationwide cold and snow and the GFS and UKMO are better for this. What's good for you isn't for everyone else

[radiohead]

Very cold but also very dry, and the coldest air has shifted south. We don't want to see that south shift to become a trend. 216 is a long way off so no need to worry.

[Ice Day]

216 is not as good as 0z.  Very cold but dry with us stuck in the middle of the high

 

[Day 10]

It's on it's way to Greenland.

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Is this a bit of worry at T216?

Only if you take every chart as gospel.

[ICE COLD]

We're ok down south ???

[Banbury]

Lol 

Dont some of you worry , it’s a variation at 144 onwards 

[cold snap]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The cold should push west north west into the UK as pressure rises over southern Greenland , as long as that happens the UK can’t miss the cold.

Nick you said ?

[Snowmaggedon]

It’s one run folks, chill out. 

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

It's on it's way to Greenland.

Yes classic retorgrade signal again.

Certainly less risk and probably longer cold spell but also likely drier for many - unti it got to Greenland anyway.

[tight isobar]

The orientation of the heigh is bound to rise and sink a little run-2 run...

But unless it completely sinks...which is'nt going to happen there are no immediate concerns.

Its overall placement will ultimately lead to uk cold...

Its good at this stage to have variation...or collapse is a %ag'e higher!

Edit- greeny high also very favourable and likely- after tge initial easterly...

Fingers off pannic buttons.

Edited February 18, 2018 by tight isobar

[karlos1983]

I don’t really see the issue to be honest. 

are we honestly expecting the output to not sway a little bit between suites? Theme still the same. This will probably move north/south over the coming runs/days. As long as we don’t see a complete backtrack of the theme I think it’s all good. I’ve taken to not viewing the ecm now until 18:50, as it’s just to nervy and frame by frame knee jerking sets in. 

[Scandinavian High.]

South East England looking very cold..

[weirpig]

I think we are in danger of over analysing charts way out on fi  a easterly of sorts is nailed on. What this will bring i.e. Snow uppers isn't.   With still quite a discrepancy between models on how fast the evolution might be  it's pointless looking any further than perhaps t 72 . At the moment. Midweek and will become clearer. In the meantime I'm just enjoying the various scenarios the models are producing 

[blizzard81]

It's just one run but the ecm is determined to be party pooper this winter. This run will not give us the convective snow making easterly we all crave. 

[bluearmy]

Catcol’s southerly shift but on the plus side, another day 10 plus corker likely as a trough drops in to our ne 

variation on a theme

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

What are you smoking CC? You are knowledgable but occasionally you leave me stumped! Frigid conditions inbound.

Actually hands up I’m wrong.. was not expecting that! Not bad for Southern England but quite dry..

What am I smoking? Check day 9 and you'll see what I saw coming...

[January Snowstorm]

Well the ECM will keep us all on our toes and shows a possible way things could unravel. Was just about to tell family and friends about the beast....not now as things can still go wrong.

Probably just another variation and still very cold

[Daniel*]

I’d say the ECM shows what could go wrong from very cold pool as the saying goes less is more. Fingers crossed this isn’t majority backed. Still is good in broad picture. 

[ICE COLD]

Well to be fair we were due a not so epic run but it's only one run . Hope it's not a trend ? . 

[radiohead]

A frustrating chart if ever I saw one. Snowmen on the French Riviera. Let's see how it sits in the ENS and what the 0Z will bring later.

[Mike Poole]

13 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Only if you take every chart as gospel.

We'll I don't but it was the first chart from a major model that looks like a wobble, but hey ho, the T240 looks just fine, high looks like it's off to Greenland, maybe a delay to get the cold in though.

But different, to the other output today, I think.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Mike Poole