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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

ECM very much in line with recent runs and similar to GEM

ECH1-168.GIF?18-0

Seems there are two routes at the moment, UKMO and GFS or ECM and GEM - they both lead to cold Easterly flow.

JMA siding with UKMO and GFS so that the more favoured route perhaps?

JN168-21.GIF?18-12

 

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)

I think people may be worrying a bit too much here, the arrival of the cold seems to be somewhere between Friday and Tuesday. I'd like it to come sooner! though the slower runs build up more intense air to the east.

Is it really that different from the GEM for example?

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The italian low and interact with others causing a flow issue via the ecm...

Im sure it will press and move to a more defined inflow...

But a little fly in the ointment on this run!

ECM1-144 (1).gif

Screenshot_2018-02-18-18-33-52.png

De-tangled.

And heights alignment good.

And the flow wiped clean!..

There appears- no feasible foes- for a full on easterly type flow anywhere.

And latter frames should be decent on the eye!

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

To my eyes the ECM is the exact same run as the 00z only 12 hours later.

 

Could be wrong but looks that way to me...

I think you're spot on...a few odd comments in here this evening. Cold on the doorstep at 168

ECM0-168.GIF?18-0

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted

All the severe cold is still a week or more away. Haven’t we been here before folks . . .

it would be a vey significant event for so late in winter. But it’s still in FI.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

This one time you hope ECM is 3rd in the rankings for once deep cold stuck in fi land which isn't a good sign.

Pit you’re being ridiculous surely you know better than this. It’s not stuck there at all, its coming irrespective just a slower evolution. It’s just like the 00z good consistency! 

We all get same outcome across the board..

Edited by Daniel*
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Taking all the main runs it seems all routes lead to that cold pool landing on the UK, it's just the timing/speed of arrival that's up for grabs.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

To my eyes the ECM is the exact same run as the 00z only 12 hours later.

 

Could be wrong but looks that way to me...

Pretty much this, the slower but much safer route to bitter cold.

ECM1-168.GIF?18-0

The GEM matches this evolution as well

gem-0-168.png?12

That cold air is going to spread westwards through the central parts of Europe hence not interactions with any bodies of water further north.

That said, the JMA probably gets the top ramp prize of the evening.

J192-21.GIF?18-12    J192-7.GIF?18-12

Still a large spread in terms of the path of that cold pool.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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supernova Community Regular

supernova

Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
Posted

Cold pool further east and not quite the inverted shape to the high shown in this morning's run so therefore slower advection of cooler uppers but despite the slower evolution the end result still going to be pleasing to the eye. Voila 192 hrs. All good if not as rapid as we'd like.

 

 ECH1-192.GIF.thumb.png.80d0ab46f239f8ea10d927fe57b6191a.png

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

ECM day 7 is an upgrade from yesterday,stronger high,Atlantic pushed back etc.

 

today..ECM1-168.thumb.GIF.dcd51e6e3dc6fde609ca31c38ee5af73.GIFyesterday..ECM1-192.thumb.GIF.c0073eb7915ec0ba1bb4e17e0f2dc77a.GIF

 

 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Not sure about this ECM run...it isn't great tbh

Day 8 shows the main thrust of the cold and associated instability into C Europe with our high just a tad too far S

ECH1-192.GIF?18-0

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

ICON is the model to follow, i'm tellin yehs...

It's been setting these trends.

Amazing but would agree...

Would much prefer the cold to come in sooner. Even by next Monday Ireland is still not there

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

No worries there!!

A pebble in the road around 96/144..

But you would expect that driving on a road that leads to paradise!! ??

ECM0-192 (1).gif

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inghams85 Community Regular

inghams85

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
Posted
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Not sure about this ECM run...it isn't great tbh

Day 8 shows the main thrust of the cold and associated instability into C Europe with our high just a tad too far S

ECH1-192.GIF?18-0

Agreed i believe you'll see the happier posts from out South East contingent it's not great for all the UK

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

Not sure about this ECM run...it isn't great tbh

Day 8 shows the main thrust of the cold and associated instability into C Europe with our high just a tad too far S

ECH1-192.GIF?18-0

The cold should push west north west into the UK as pressure rises over southern Greenland , as long as that happens the UK can’t miss the cold.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not sure about this ECM run...it isn't great tbh

Day 8 shows the main thrust of the cold and associated instability into C Europe with our high just a tad too far S

ECH1-192.GIF?18-0

A higher lat high would be better for ppn certainly. UKMO, GFS and JMA are the route for snow fans away from the SE.

Edited by Mucka
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not sure about this ECM run...it isn't great tbh

Day 8 shows the main thrust of the cold and associated instability into C Europe with our high just a tad too far S

ECH1-192.GIF?18-0

What are you smoking CC? You are knowledgable but occasionally you leave me stumped! Frigid conditions inbound.

FEEC55C1-C430-464F-81C3-BDE633A4AF9F.thumb.gif.6feb93c9c09bd3d550c2f2d309f218d1.gif

Actually hands up I’m wrong.. was not expecting that! Not bad for Southern England but quite dry..

Edited by Daniel*
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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted (edited)

I think it's good to see the ECM having the high further south after the UKMO had it further north. A middle ground would be great, and similar to the GFS.

Edited by MattStoke
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