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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Location: Canvey Island
27 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The words 'hotting up' are unfortunate as that is exactly what will happen once the flow over the UK originates from the Med!

You are not a voice to be ignored John, how do you see this all panning out and when would you expect the "heat up" to occur ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Euro vs Euro

UKMO 120

IMG_3342.thumb.PNG.45d7ce6f939c0e9281f0df787e3cb7ff.PNG

EC 120

IMG_3343.thumb.PNG.a291cf1daf3f04867cf0d6aeb8dfc7bc.PNG

 

UKMO much better aligned, EC slower but surely will get there later.

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

It should pan out well - but this really is a longterm rollercoaster. Many many many more runs and then if it gets into the 72hr timeframe - we have to start looking at the finer details. An exhausting 10 days ahead.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

ECM oh dear I hope it was watching the spurs match. The placement of the high so far is the death knell. This may explain the earlier fresher comment.

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I think UKMO would potentially be better for those living further north, due to its higher position, while ECM would potentially be better for southeners. A la GEM, sub -15 uppers and all that. Of course the run is still to complete, but seems it could set up that way.

Edited by oasis
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

ECM at 144 looks good to me, but is different to GFS and UKMO

ECM ECH1-144.GIF?18-0 GFS gfsnh-0-144.png?12 UK Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

EC keeps it cool/cold at the surface with milder 850s being dragged in from the south east, nothing extreme at this stge

IMG_3344.thumb.PNG.6dacd51f9fc08d0eb9d5f520c8d5d321.PNG 

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Not quite sure how it gets there, but by 144 things are already falling into place. Compare the 144 and the old 168 charts and you’ll see there’s very little to chose. There is a risk that everyone’s understandable impatience will turn the next week into a model watching nightmare - relax everyone, the EC is fine. 

 

1D42E279-90CB-4148-A782-E0C2CC5DC8FA.png

1248C42A-5804-4680-AE31-C086931DDA58.png

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The more of a straight southerly flow into the arctic, the higher latitude the high pressure will establish itself. If there is a bit of jet energy pushing east like on the ECM, then the high pressure will establish further south. Though if it too much energy goes east then obviously the high will completely collapse. Hopefully the latter won't happen, and at least some part of the UK gets pasted. 

And at +168 on ECM we see a sub -20 cold pool setting up in Poland waiting to be advected westwards. 

 

Edited by oasis
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The italian low and interact with others causing a flow issue via the ecm...

Im sure it will press and move to a more defined inflow...

But a little fly in the ointment on this run!

ECM1-144 (1).gif

Screenshot_2018-02-18-18-33-52.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

EC keeps it cool/cold at the surface with milder 850s being dragged in from the south east, nothing extreme at this stge

IMG_3344.thumb.PNG.6dacd51f9fc08d0eb9d5f520c8d5d321.PNG 

I’m unsure whether the air will be that ‘warm’ from where it’s coming from dubious. Looks really near to 00Z to me same outcome probable. 

8D9F469F-9A96-4ED3-B42A-F74AC26682C2.thumb.gif.fc2ba858bd6c61bb69da6fdb305932a4.gif

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Wow, ECM just can't seem to stop being super-aggressive with the Atlantic trough. Good thing this blocking high is looking strong enough to not only keep it away from us but force it to disrupt by Saturday afternoon - but it does get shunted a little bit south and that's just enough to bring the upper flow across the Alps a bit, hence the sudden rise in 850s. The surface flow remains more easterly so little change in temps there; still chilly or quite cold.

The model seemingly (pending the next few charts) very determined to give us the slower but more intense version of events.

ECM1-168.GIF?18-0

Okay yes, very determined indeed. Extraordinary consistency from this model relative to its previous couple of runs, but will it still be in a minority cluster of the EPS with such a positively tilted Atlantic trough Fri-Sat?

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

The ecm might be a slower evolution than the gfs. But the cold over Europe seems even more severe than the gfs . This run will be frigid  if a little more delayed than the gfs 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

This one time you hope ECM is 3rd in the rankings for once deep cold stuck in fi land which isn't a good sign.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Patience needed from all I feel. Looking at the output the beast will come but we will have to wait ~7 days.

 

It may well be an historic late cold push but we are probably best advised to take 2-3 days off the model watching for the sake of our sanity.

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