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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Yep - clock is on fast forward - GFS bringing the cold in earlier as the pattern pushes west faster than models expect. I think by the time this comes to zero hour we might see things hotting up next weekend... the cold pool forecast to be here on Saturday

gfs-0-144.png?12

may well be already hitting SE England. Snowy Twickenham anyone? 

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Koldweather - here's your Greenie High at 264

gensnh-0-1-264.png

This is actually a snowier and colder run than the OP - Op a mild outlier?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Just now, Catacol said:

Yep - clock is on fast forward - GFS bringing the cold in earlier as the pattern pushes west faster than models expect. I think by the time this comes to zero hour we might see things hotting up next weekend... the cold pool forecast to be here on Saturday

gfs-0-144.png?12

may well be already hitting SW England. Snowy Twickenham anyone? 

I hope it doesn't hot up. Those south of the m4 will be on the wrong side of marginal

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The strength of this block across all the output is immense.  Look at the GEFS mean at T228

gens-21-1-228.png?12

1050 contour there on a mean chart at this distance.   Probability plots also give indication, probability of >1030mb at the same time:

gensprob-4-228.png?12

It's like (for this GEFS suite anyway) a nailed on retrogression.  And where's the Azores High? Absent, presumed missing!

Onward the ECM...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yep - clock is on fast forward - GFS bringing the cold in earlier as the pattern pushes west faster than models expect. I think by the time this comes to zero hour we might see things hotting up next weekend... the cold pool forecast to be here on Saturday

gfs-0-144.png?12

may well be already hitting SW England. Snowy Twickenham anyone? 

The words 'hotting up' are unfortunate as that is exactly what will happen once the flow over the UK originates from the Med!

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

The words 'hotting up' are unfortunate as that is exactly what will happen once the flow over the UK originates from the Med!

Think you might be confusing the words 'once' and 'if' John 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

The words 'hotting up' are unfortunate as that is exactly what will happen once the flow over the UK originates from the Med!

Yes and thats completly fine...

When it does in mid-april!!!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Absolutely stunning charts!!from wednesday onwards we are pretty much in the freezer!!ecm here we come!!need good allignment at 72 hours and the rest will of the run should be good!!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

12z... getting better..

Colder solutions growing.

The fat bloke on a binge..

Of pies and lager....keep scoffing my son?

12z london ens

absolute cracking set there!!!

edit ; seriously need to slow on tap/typo...#words with myself!!!

MT8_London_ens (4).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, tight isobar said:

18z... getting better..

Colder soulutions growing.

The fat bloke on bing..

Of pies and lager....keep scoffing my son?

MT8_London_ens (4).png

12Z ti, like your posts though, even I think we could have an easterly here, not told anyone yet though, not that confident, or it will go balls up

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Location: Liverpool
6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

12z... getting better..

Colder soulutions growing.

The fat bloke on a bing..

Of pies and lager....keep scoffing my son?

12z london ens

MT8_London_ens (4).png

Love your posts mate, really do.

Of pies and lager ...

Keep scoffing my son

 

BRILLIANT..KEEP IT UP MATE..

Edited by Jamesjane
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

12Z ti, like your posts though, even I think we could have an easterly here, not told anyone yet though, not that confident, or it will go balls up

Firming is becoming steadfast now.

And if the ecm 12z is in nearly the same ballpark its another MAJOR STEP!!

Although hold ya-tongue for a few more days.

?

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

12z... getting better..

Colder soulutions growing.

The fat bloke on a bing..

Of pies and lager....keep scoffing my son?

12z london ens

MT8_London_ens (4).png

There is definitely a split  between 23rd and 25th though!!gota be very carefull here mate as we have been bitten far too many times!!we were lucky on this run the operational went with the colder cluster around those dates!!we want the milder runs gone in the next run between those dates just to be pretty much sure that this is going to happen!!

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12z a bit worse for me here in fife compared to the 6z more scatter early on but slightly better towards the end 

Screenshot_20180218-175756.thumb.png.4a1d9987783496e4cb8f1ba5c5114dc0.png

Screenshot_20180218-175810.thumb.png.53aee63ed33f0b41a7daaabe43f94466.png

A few talking about longevity of this cold spell well i did see a tweet earlier today from micheal ventrice over in the states and he was saying he reckoned that once we get locked into this cold pattern and he was talking greenland hieghts his thinking was europe would be in the cold for even 4+ weeks 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

There is definitely a split  between 23rd and 25th though!!gota be very carefull here mate as we have been bitten far too many times!!we were lucky on this run the operational went with the colder cluster around those dates!!we want the milder runs gone in the next run between those dates just to be pretty much sure that this is going to happen!!

Yes i hear you but as again-expect a decline going forwards.

And notable below clustering!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

A bit more scatter on the GEFS 12z insofar as the arrival date goes, op slightly progressive with the initial onset. Still, we can actually afford some leeway here, some absolutely stark staring crazy runs going on. An amazing time to be involved in this thread, truly incredible viewing. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

There is definitely a split  between 23rd and 25th though!!gota be very carefull here mate as we have been bitten far too many times!!we were lucky on this run the operational went with the colder cluster around those dates!!we want the milder runs gone in the next run between those dates just to be pretty much sure that this is going to happen!!

Not much of a split though, 80%+ of runs go with the cold cluster.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think I'm right in saying that EVERY SINGLE RUN GOES BELOW MINUS 10C 850HPA at some point!

That,

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think I'm right in saying that EVERY SINGLE RUN GOES BELOW MINUS 10C 850HPA at some point!

That, I promise, has never happened beyond D6 before.

I promise, has never happened beyond D6 before.

Not to my  immediate knowledge either!!!

Quite something!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z has some insane winter weather with heavy snow at times and sub zero maxima..the stuff of coldies dreams!..hoping we get absolutely hammered with bitter cold and snow!:)

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