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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

I'm seriously considering getting a few essentials in the cupboards just in case!

I never do anything like that and normally the hype is just that, but with every passing run I'm thinking "this might actually come off"

Amazing runs!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Certainly not something you see modelled every day.

I doubt it will happen anything like this anyway. 

I only mentioned it because it is different to what has gone before and if if it does go that way it will cut off the cold feed and likely lead to a quicker breakdown than the true retrograde pattern of previous runs.

It gets a stay of execution this run because it manages to still retrogess some high pressure and the Atlantic is dead.

Given it still produces stunning winter charts for a good period I doubt anyone will care. :D

Agreed, I'd perfer this evolution to what we would get if the upper high was placed too far north to start.

Besides, I'd probably take this run if it led to a big snow event like it does between 240-264hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Navgem coming out . I know , I know but I couldn’t resist . 

B733A916-623C-448B-A6C8-93A33E555B85.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)

I think after 4 or 5 days of deep cold and the channel low blizzard even the die hard fans will have had enough. Serious cold and snow showing from that sunday through to the friday.

Will most likely look different by 1st weekend it March, we may be looking at a longer period of cold with retrogression.

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
1 minute ago, Paceyboy said:

I think after 4 or 5 days of deep cold and the channel low blizzard even the die hard fans will have had enough. Serious cold and snow showing from that sunday through to the friday.

Will most likely look different by 1st weekend it March, we may be looking at a longer period of cold with retrogression.

I don't agree. I'd be looking for more snow at that point 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

The title of this thread is will it get cold? That’s a fat yes, what remains uncertain is potency I have little doubt the beast from east is going to pay a visit, it will probably be not till T+72 we really know what we’re looking at. More unusual there’s a lesser chance of it being heavily moderated as we usually see as air is so cold.. and continent would have cooled substantially by then.

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
4 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

I think after 4 or 5 days of deep cold and the channel low blizzard even the die hard fans will have had enough. Serious cold and snow showing from that sunday through to the friday.

Will most likely look different by 1st weekend it March, we may be looking at a longer period of cold with retrogression.

I remember thinking that before 2010 started but when it ended I of course wanted more. November to April can snow every day as far as Im concerned as long as its warmer by May.

 

GFS mean very close to the OP so far

 

GFSAVGEU12_102_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

UKMO pretty good as well

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

Slight delay in the westwards progression of the cold air on the GEFS mean at 114hr in comparison the the 6z however it still looks good and looks to be going along the lines of ECM (which is still epic)

gensnh-21-1-114.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ukmo brings a very neg tilt to the Atlantic trough which none of the other models show. Ecm op wasn’t in the largest eps cluster at day 6 with the largest looking a tad more ukmo 12z. Maybe the new ecm will trend a bit ukmo in 45 mins? 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

A few ensemble members keen to get the party started early.

gensnh-4-1-126.pnggensnh-6-1-132.png

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all :)

A rare foray from me into the lion's den of the MoD at the weekend but this seems a weekend unlike most.

UKMO at T+144 next Saturday:

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

One of the concerns I've had looking at ECM ENS and some GEFS members has been the HP positioned too far south - more around Denmark - so the ambient air pressure over the UK is above 1030MB which wouldn't be conducive for the kind of snowfall many on here want to see.

I like this chart because the MSLP across the south is 1015-1020 MB so if we are going to get some convection off the North Sea (Thames Streamer anyone ?) this is going to be a big help.

GEM at T+144:

gem-0-144.png?12

Here are those little nuances that show how we haven't nailed this down at all YET, UKMO has the HP centred to the north of Scandinavia, GEM has a 1040 MB HP over Norway. The resulting MSLP over the British Isles is higher so it's drier and perhaps sunny to the west and north west. For all the later development, it's a case of close but not quite for snow fans - for cold fans, it's another hit.

Here's the GFS OP at T+144:

gfs-0-144.png?12

Somewhere between the two ? Well, I suppose, but the SW'ly tilt of the HP makes me wonder if the colder air will miss. However, the Ukrainian LP fills out over Denmark and the winds go lighter with the MSLP at 1015MB across the south so that looks good for snow as well.

Here's your near ice day:

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Actually, no ice days for London on this but 1-2c on the last two days of the month won't feel warm at all. Plenty of opportunity for snow to lie to high ground and further north and even in lowland East London we might get lucky.

Nothing lasts forever - 7-10 days of severe cold will be memorable and noteworthy in its own right but the GEFS are already, at the very edge of FI, sniffing round the next evolution. We'd all like to see the HP retrogress and ridge SE drawing in a NE'ly from Scandinavia with plenty of embedded troughs (P 17 from the 06Z suite) but that's far from certain and it's also possible a strong west-based NAO will set up taking us back to the milder side of the jet. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
2 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Slight delay in the westwards progression of the cold air on the GEFS mean at 114hr in comparison the the 6z however it still looks good and looks to be going along the lines of ECM (which is still epic)

gensnh-21-1-114.png?12

If we get to this point, which is in the semi reliable timeframe, is it almost inevitable that the deep cold uppers will hit the U.K. a couple of days later?

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Just now, Gustywind said:

If we get to this point, which is in the semi reliable timeframe, is it almost inevitable that the deep cold uppers will hit the U.K. a couple of days later?

Yes as long as we have no shortwave issues, it looks to be more a matter of timing of the arrival of the cold air, lets hope so anyway.

GEFS mean at 180hrs

gensnh-21-1-180.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well the Control is saying 'yes' to the Op out to 180.  Small differences but the same overall pattern.  

gensnh-0-1-180.png gens-0-0-180.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
44 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Buried alive at t252 ???

IMG_1606.PNG

Was about to post, LW giant frequency number!

beast arrives though Sunday night, first snow for most of us Mon am, E areas earlier, need same from EC now

gfs-0-180.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Stunning mean as we exit the high res timeframe!

B48F7D4B-67F0-45C2-B5E9-5E368A2C39FE.thumb.png.cad89144ded6b95131b9f0df8cbb8bcb.png

Be glad if it holds off past Sunday. A cold Day out at Wembley I don’t really Fancy lol but if needs must, I’ll not moan! 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

The Control at 216 looks like blizzard material to me...? -10's across the country

gensnh-0-1-216.png gens-0-0-216.png

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