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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

240hrs is just jaw dropping, LP in the bay of biscay with a near perfect cold set-up aloft, somewhere (either N.France or S.UK)will cop a big load of snow on this run between 240-264hrs.

Ps, willwe get that Greenland high I mentioned 20 mins ago between 264-288hrs? Maybe...

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Channel Low at 240?  Could be a snow-maker for those in the South West

gfsnh-0-240.png?12 gfsnh-1-240.png?12

There's so much to like, but for me the best thing is that based on this run, we're looking at a nationwide event, everyone is in the game.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Buried alive at t252 ???

IMG_1606.PNG

And still getting buried 24hrs later ?

IMG_1607.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

240hrs is just jaw dropping, LP in the bay of biscay with a near perfect cold set-up aloft, somewhere (either N.France or S.UK)will cop a big load of snow on this run between 240-264hrs.

Ps, willwe get that Greenland high I mentioned 20 mins ago between 264-288hrs? Maybe...

No. As I posted above the core of the block is sucked into Siberia instead of retrogressing which is what would lead to the Greenland high previously modelled

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Channel Low at 240?  Could be a snow-maker for those in the South West

gfsnh-0-240.png?12 gfsnh-1-240.png?12

There's so much to like, but for me the best thing is that based on this run, we're looking at a nationwide event, everyone is in the game.

 

Yup this run is the most inclusive. Even I'd be buried!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Stunning chart, think the Canadian warming is in evidence here. No Atlantic.

gfsnh-0-276.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

The GFS is giving us a European wide slider , now measuring the snow in mass ( tonnes) not height (cm) 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

On a real note should this scenario play out..and are looking increasingly likely, some planners will have to be set in place- and massive disruption and health hazards will be a-plenty...

Thats honestly how this could shape up...

Some very memorable weather on the cards..(possible) (likely)

!!!

Amazing stuff.

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

No. As I posted above the core of the block is sucked into Siberia instead of retrogressing which is what would lead to the Greenland high previously modelled

Its interesting because we do get an upper high but in a slightly unusual place, to the east of Newfoundland, that in conjuction with the PV relocating again keeps the jet south, effectively its acting like a west based-ve NAO, even though in truth it isn't.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Stunning chart, think the Canadian warming is in evidence here. No Atlantic.

gfsnh-0-276.png?12

Indeed, no Atlantic and no PV over Canada.  Incredible chart and I would wager there would be more to come down the line if this verified!?

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The 12z is a good run for the UK as it spreads the snowfall around quite nice-

I counted about 80 hours for my location sub -10c isotherm & of course periods below -12c & at that point - snowcover & occasional clear periods would mean temps well below freezing even by day-

Ive noticed before ( a la 2010 ) that maxima can stick at very low levels depsite models predicting -1/-2 maxima -- 

Enjoyable period - glad im coming back into the country sat eve -hopefully to be greeted by a dusting already!

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Now let's have a snowstorm just to be sure knowbody misses out.

gfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.b3d73460f9ed06e2f39f9d6095da1ec7.pnggfsnh-2-264.thumb.png.7cf27d186f3a8d3eaa9fa4c6170bcb97.png

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

blizzard!

ukgust.thumb.png.e2ceed02869e435d9e08072ff4a93765.png

prectypeuktopo-9.thumb.png.6d83ff1e7bf71b4fb4b45f2a7aa1b2ea.png

Feeling cold as well, nothing marginal about that

Netweather GFS Image

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

I think if we make it to Wednesday with the trend still pretty much the same I reckon we will get locked into this pattern for quite sometime 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Its interesting because we do get an upper high but in a slightly unusual place, to the east of Newfoundland, that in conjuction with the PV relocating again keeps the jet south, effectively its acting like a west based-ve NAO, even though in truth it isn't.

Certainly not something you see modelled every day.

I doubt it will happen anything like this anyway. 

I only mentioned it because it is different to what has gone before and if if it does go that way it will cut off the cold feed and likely lead to a quicker breakdown than the true retrograde pattern of previous runs.

It gets a stay of execution this run because it manages to still retrogess some high pressure and the Atlantic is dead.

Given it still produces stunning winter charts for a good period I doubt anyone will care. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

GFS delays the cold slightly then it brings it on. Afternoon forecast just mentioned getting fresher which would be the GFS outlook. All eyes ecm.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JMA 12z, very  nice.

JN84-21.GIF?18-12

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