Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[bobbydog]

consistency again from the GFS

todays runs show snow showers piling into the east coast by this time next week.

imagine the Express headlines...

if one snowflake equates to an "Arctic Freeze", then if any of the current models verify, it'll be- "We're all gonna die!!!!"

[radiohead]

2 minutes ago, snowice said:

Anybody have the wind chill temperature when you add them on. 

[Banbury]

Superb consistency from GFS 

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, snowice said:

Anybody have the wind chill temperature when you add them on. 

13:00 in the afternoon next Monday;

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Wow. That would feel slightly cold ?

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

13:00 in the afternoon next Monday;

A little bit nippy then!

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

My word time for the lambs to get  Fake fur coats! 

[Ice Day]

This is one of those runs where you could literally post every chart, they're all amazing (we've have a few of these runs recently)!

What an absolute Bobby Dazzler at 216.  This is just insane!

 

[Weathizard]

3 minutes ago, AWD said:

13:00 in the afternoon next Monday;

As much as I love cold weather, that's quite concerning for the vulnerable people in society.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Weathizard

[Derecho]

A run that competes with the 06z . Notice the kinks in the isobars which represent unstable air with organised snow showers... and the cold pool over Denmark heading to us.

Quicksilver! The cold spell is in jeopardy!!!!!



Nooooo.... thats just the ICON

[Banbury]

Just now, Ice Day said:

This is one of those runs where you could literally post every chart, they're all amazing (we've have a few of these runs recently)!

What an absolute Bobby Dazzler at 216.  This is just insane!

 

Just going to post those , snow a plenty I’d have thought 

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, snowice said:

Anybody have the wind chill temperature when you add them on. 

Daytime temps around zero and wind around 30Km would equal a windchill of around -7C

https://www.weather.gov/epz/wxcalc_windchill

[SteveB]

12 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well and truly freezing ?GFS 189 hrs 

Carry on this way and the North sea could start to freeze, bump up those poor ice totals

[Matthew Gill]

Greenland high?

[radiohead]

Getting progressively snowier.

[swfc]

Incredibe 12z gfs easterly from siberia to esb.total wind reversal over the northern hemisphere, staggering! !!

[Singularity]

By returning to a more positive tilt to the Atlantic trough for Thu-Sat, this latest GFS run has produced the more elongated ridge favoured by the past two ECM runs. 

Now, however, it's gone and raised heights massively across Greenland, something GFS has generally been taking further than ECM within the 10 day range. 

Things then get really strange as you have one area of blocking looking to sustain the easterly flow while the other wants to set up a NE or N flow.

A compromise between the two leads to a NE flow and extremely large block, much as the GFS 06z went on to show. 

What a crazy chart to see within the 10 day range. I suppose it does make sense though that the strongest reversal of zonal flow in the stratosphere on record would lead to the longest stretch of reverse zonal in the troposphere 10-14 days later... did I really just say that? Wow.

[Mike Poole]

Stone the crows, this run is mental!

And getting earlier too!  The main interest in last week of Feb rather than into March.

850's:

Edited February 18, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Day 10]

Lovely.

So some Eastern spots should start to see some snow showers by next Sunday.

Looks like the snow to spread by Tuesday.

Still way off we all know, but the trend is most definitely our friend right now!!! Good times (we hope)

 

 

[mother nature rocks]

Back in 2010 when the models latched onto the cold spell, they ran with it over and over again until 0z. 

Does anyone have the confidence in this run up like we did back then??? 

It’s looking amazing at the moment, everything crossed. 

MNR

[Banbury]

Just keeps going 

[Mucka]

GFS different this run in that the the core of the block gets sucked SE instead of retrogressing NW.

[parrotingfantasist]

All those kinks and bumps would deliver mental amounts of snow. Shows how unstable it is!

[MattStoke]

Best runs since this morning! 

[ICE COLD]

Buried alive at t252 ???