Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Daniel*]

WOW have you seen the GEM? -18C uppers reach south east coldest I’ve seen yet.

[radiohead]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Not bad for a model that usually has uppers way too high!

-18 uppers getting into the SE at the end of the run. Stunning.

[Candice]

12 minutes ago, Nick L said:

What even is the ICON? I mentioned it at work to blank faces...

Used to be called GEM 

[The Eagle]

Just now, Candice said:

Used to be called GEM 

GME*

[ICE COLD]

The pretty couloirs are in on the GFS ?

Edited February 18, 2018 by ICE COLD

[kold weather]

12z UKMO going for a more northerly HP which is FAR bigger risk as the atlantic has a real easy route to coming back in. As it happens the 12z UKMO *should* be ok as the upper high is just west enough to ensure the cold air bleeds in from the east.

No good having a great upper high too far north and the Atlantic coming back in before the deep cold has even arrived! 

GFS better than UKMO out to 144hrs, both for depth of cold AND longevity. UKMO is still a very good run, probably would still evolve into a really great run, but its far more iffy than the GFS route.

Edited February 18, 2018 by kold weather

[tight isobar]

And the wrap of heights are on.

Crucial for advetion of colder/further west...

All in all great modeling....

Edited February 18, 2018 by tight isobar

[ICE COLD]

This is gonna be a stunning run again ?

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Don't forget Essexweather said Sunday may see a slight model wobble but by Monday they all converge....On a massive cold spell...Come on

I don't see how anyone could possibly predict if/when there would be a model wobble, seems very bizzare and pretty much impossible?

 

12z's looking solid so far, Easterly looks extremely likely now... will it be a snowy memorable spell though?

[Ice Day]

At 162 the 'bowling ball' of cold is starting to roll towards us.  Looking tremendous so far.

 

[Daniel*]

GFS is absolutely stunning perfect 10/10 only very rarely do I ever give that.

 

 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Daniel*

[kold weather]

Got to say we are getting good cross model agreement on the broad synotpic pattern and how it develops. Exact placement and timings are still to be decided but broad trend is looking good. ICON for example is slower but the pattern still evolves the same.UKMO places the upper high further NW but still develops in the same way, etc.

[Banbury]

180 GFS stunning 

[tight isobar]

Dream charts for the cold-snow fans...

Uk enters the frezzer @174 with fridged cold and likely snow (all snow) showers packing well inland....

Edit; screw up that word marginality...and throw it in the bin!!!

Edited February 18, 2018 by tight isobar

[Mark wheeler]

186 looks a bit nippy 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Mark wheeler

[Rayth]

A recurvature of the jet on the GFS @ 180 and my pipes have burst at home and my heating bill is now measured at 10hpa ! Could be on the cusp of ‘remember 2018’ 

[ICE COLD]

Well and truly freezing ?GFS 189 hrs 

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Got to say we are getting good cross model agreement on the broad synotpic pattern and how it develops. Exact placement and timings are still to be decided but broad trend is looking good. ICON for example is slower but the pattern still evolves the same.UKMO places the upper high further NW but still develops in the same way, etc.

Absolutely (you've just saved me a couple of minutes as I was about to post the same). Really good consistency between the models, just some hold the cold back a little longer.  I don't know about anyone else, but I could wait an extra few hours for this at 186

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, 'flippin 'eck Tucker'

[kev238]

I think the overwhelming size of the cold pool plus the scale of the blocking means we will have to be very unlucky to miss out on a significant cold spell !

 

[tight isobar]

EPIC...

having to pinch myself here !!!???

Edited February 18, 2018 by tight isobar

[lorenzo]

500hPa temps give another view on the cryogenics going on over the continent. Impressive cold pool.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, kev238 said:

I think the overwhelming size of the cold pool plus the scale of the blocking means we will have to be very unlucky to miss out on a significant cold spell !

 

I wholeheartedly agree one thing for sure it’s not going to go south as what usually happens it’s too extensive.

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Well and truly freezing ?GFS 189 hrs 

-16 uppers waiting for later in the run. Jesus Christ, I'm going to need a bigger coat.

[kold weather]

Amazingly the flow is EVEN BETTER than the 06z from the east by 192hrs. The upper high isn't quite asimpressive but that is splitting hairs really. Sub zero maxes and lots of snow, frontal snow in the north at 180hrs with a lot of showers on either side of that time.

PS, watch for possible Greenland high around 264-288hrs.

Edited February 18, 2018 by kold weather

[snowice]

Anybody have the wind chill temperature when you add them on. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by snowice