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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Full ens mean shows the peak of the coldest air around the 26th after this a slow rise to around -5 so staying cold but a slight recovery in temps

graphe_ens3_zar366.thumb.gif.38ceeedb6f343a0aae0e2f898d11e59e.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

This will surely go down as one of the all time cold spells, or one of the all time fails.

This has to be our time surely?

Netweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS Image

It's not going to matter a jot that it's the end of Feb & heading in to Spring with those sort of temps

Game on!

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
21 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Nah itsj just the models don't have the resolution to really model showers properly, the flow from 216-240hrs is PERFECT for the SE, I'm betting 6-9 inches in that 24hr period,but the GFS is pretty poor at picking up showers because the resolution is too coarse. According to the GFS the SE never gets snowfall from an easterly ;) 

A futile debate but a ESE,ly is never really a snow maker for the SE due to the simple fact of a shorter sea fetch. This is why it tends to produce from Lincs northwards.

GFSOPUK06_237_1.png

Anyway like I said in my previous post in these situations the flow tends to alter between ESE,ly & ENE,ly and so the distribution of the snow showers also changes.

Edited by TEITS
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Ha! Just looking through the ECM clusters. 

Basically a case of take your pick and you still get cold.

5a896971d20e8_ECClusters.thumb.png.0f638b9204aeb6ac904575923766d088.png

OP and Control sit in the majority cluster.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Stunning GEFS 6z mean, not only does it look like a very cold easterly spell is locking in but there could also be some impressive snowfall totals with drifting and severe penetrating frosts...if this goes pete tong now, I don't think I will ever recover:D..but I'm actually confident we are in for an epic climax to the winter of 2017 / 18 and a very wintry start to the meteorological spring!:):cold:

21_222_850tmp.png

21_246_850tmp.png

21_270_850tmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Full ens mean shows the peak of the coldest air around the 26th after this a slow rise to around -5 so staying cold but a slight recovery in temps

 

Tbf ss- @that range and given likely clockwise transfer....

Members will likely continue a downwards trend....as we progress...(perhaps)

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
13 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just to give an idea of just how cold some of those ensemble runs are, a couple would be cold enough aloft to support a polar low...exceptionally rare to get that level of depth this far south, especially this deep into winter!

A polar low would be welcome up here on the north west side of England as there's a better chance of decent snowfall from it, obviously. The fact were even considering the possibility of one is a bit insane though. 

Edited by Deep Snow please
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
9 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Ever read a MetO text forecast of "snow for many"? - you have now. And an extended that puts any milder shift back to mid March.

And on the model front... I rather like this one

gem-0-240.png?00

Not sure the south of England would be able to operate at all under that.

Yup snow for the many and not the few hopefully! 

Still trying to keep myself grounded, I don't want a conservative cold spell under a strong and stable high....

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
2 minutes ago, Retron said:

Hah, no - I'm Retron here as well, albeit I usually just lurk.

I guess there are quite a few of us who use both forums!

Mind you, both forums are absolutely buzzing today. As I said on TWO, it really does look like 2005 all over again... although to be fair the ensemble output from both GEFS and EPS is colder than it was then.

EDIT: And thank you, Chionomaniac - yes, maybe I will post a bit on here!

I think the background signals are a tad better than 2005......!

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Posted
  • Location: Leysdown, Kent
  • Location: Leysdown, Kent
Just now, Catacol said:

I think the background signals are a tad better than 2005......!

Ah, the reason I mentioned 2005 is because I live in Kent - that was the last time we saw syntopics similar to this, ie a long-lived easterly spell. I was lucky enough to see some snow out of that 2005 spell, but I know many areas missed out completely. At least if things pan out the way they're looking at the moment there would be more widespread snow and - with temperatures a degree or two down on 2005 - whatever falls would probably linger too.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup snow for the many and not the few hopefully! 

Still trying to keep myself grounded, I don't want a conservative cold spell under a strong and stable high....

Agreed. This is still a risk. I'm slightly concerned the models may not yet be seeing the full impact of the SSW... and if anything that storm track might drop further south. The wailing and gnashing of teeth that would follow if Paris was buried and it was sunny in Portsmouth would be hard to bear!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
7 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Agreed. This is still a risk. I'm slightly concerned the models may not yet be seeing the full impact of the SSW... and if anything that storm track might drop further south. The wailing and gnashing of teeth that would follow if Paris was buried and it was sunny in Portsmouth would be hard to bear!

That would be a bitter pill to swallow. Surely this is an outsider?

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
15 minutes ago, Retron said:

Hah, no - I'm Retron here as well, albeit I usually just lurk.

I guess there are quite a few of us who use both forums!

Mind you, both forums are absolutely buzzing today. As I said on TWO, it really does look like 2005 all over again... although to be fair the ensemble output from both GEFS and EPS is colder than it was then.

EDIT: And thank you, Chionomaniac - yes, maybe I will post a bit on here!

Please do continue on here Retron if you can. I used to go on TWO years ago and remember your input - all the more welcome on here too ?

mainly because even after all these years I’m still clueless about the models ?

Edited by khodds
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
11 minutes ago, Retron said:

Ah, the reason I mentioned 2005 is because I live in Kent - that was the last time we saw syntopics similar to this, ie a long-lived easterly spell. I was lucky enough to see some snow out of that 2005 spell, but I know many areas missed out completely. At least if things pan out the way they're looking at the moment there would be more widespread snow and - with temperatures a degree or two down on 2005 - whatever falls would probably linger too.

 

Darren , as you know I have interacted with you on TWO for a long time ( Gooner) I for one am hoping this comes off for you and Gusty as you have waited for an age , you even dodge the snow 

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Posted
  • Location: Leysdown, Kent
  • Location: Leysdown, Kent
1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Darren , as you know I have interacted with you on TWO for a long time ( Gooner) I for one am hoping this comes off for you and Gusty as you have waited for an age , you even dodge the snow 

Thank you, it'd be nice to see if only to prove that we can still get long-fetch continental easterlies. It's been a hell of a long time, after all.

With the wording of the Met Office update, it looks like they're taking the ensemble output seriously. Although the focus will undoubtedly be in the south and east, as they mention snow could pop up almost anywhere. If we do in fact end up with -15C 850s, I'd expect convective activity to be widespread given the stronger sunshine we're now enjoying... hopefully everyone would see at least a bit of snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
9 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Agreed. This is still a risk. I'm slightly concerned the models may not yet be seeing the full impact of the SSW... and if anything that storm track might drop further south. The wailing and gnashing of teeth that would follow if Paris was buried and it was sunny in Portsmouth would be hard to bear!

Ha ha! We're so used to missing out in Portsmouth that we're pretty hardened to it!!

A little look at 850s on EPS T300 - looks like ECM ensembles staying cold for the long haul this morning

ec-ens_millikort_mslpmean_t850mean_t850s

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
21 minutes ago, Retron said:

Hah, no - I'm Retron here as well, albeit I usually just lurk.

I guess there are quite a few of us who use both forums!

Mind you, both forums are absolutely buzzing today. As I said on TWO, it really does look like 2005 all over again... although to be fair the ensemble output from both GEFS and EPS is colder than it was then.

EDIT: And thank you, Chionomaniac - yes, maybe I will post a bit on here!

Darren, your posts on TWO are always worth a second read (and you're right, both forums buzzing today). Am sure your contribution would be most welcome on here by lots of us who are not so knowledgable but remain keen to learn.

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

By a considerable margin the best set of ENS I ever remember seeing for the Eastern counties. Am gonna see if I can unearth the ensembles for 2009/10 when I get time later - be interested to compare - but honestly I'm not sure they were ever this good.

graphe3_1000_296_42___.thumb.gif.ae7b47b1277fb73fc8459f48a9753a8c.gif

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