Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Bit misleading. The 00z and 12z have thrown out stellar runs this week as well ?? And here's the evidence ?

and that's misleading as they're from runs from 5 or so days ago...I'm talking about recently

[snowflakey]

I'm afraid I'm a very hard man to please and I wont be happy until I see the 492 dam make an appearance in the SE.  

This is the best I could come up with ATM

[Banbury]

240 on the Control lovely run

[Mr snowman 2018]

Wow what a GFS 6z truly we are on the verge of something special folks the best cold and snowiest spell since 2013 and possibly the coldest and snowiest  since 2010 it's been a long time coming folks but it sure looks like that Beast will finally show itself in the UK once more 

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, TEITS said:

The 06Z would favour the NE of the UK rather than the SE.

Whilst it's still too early to say but if the trend continues then the next focus for members to look at is the exact flow of the E,ly. A ESE, E, ENE, NE,ly are all a factor on the distribution of the snow showers. For example a ESE,ly tends to favour locations from Lincs northwards and places such as the SE can miss out and remain dry.

Having said all of this if the trend continues the flow of the E,ly is more likely to change to all the directions I mention above resulting in most seeing some action!

Nah itsj just the models don't have the resolution to really model showers properly, the flow from 216-240hrs is PERFECT for the SE, I'm betting 6-9 inches in that 24hr period,but the GFS is pretty poor at picking up showers because the resolution is too coarse. According to the GFS the SE never gets snowfall from an easterly  

[kev238]

The GFS mean for next Sunday is remarkable 

There should be a high degree of confidence now on the week beginning 26.2.18 being pretty extreme cold wise - this would surely bring substantial snowfalls with it

[Derecho]

Goodness gracious me, the 06z ensembles are a massive upgrade! 

Many have deep cold pooling over the UK at T192

Edited February 18, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

and that's misleading as they're from runs from 5 or so days ago...I'm talking about recently

You said it's only the 18z and 6z with the outlandish runs . Every model this week has thrown out stellar runs 00z , 6z ,12z and 18z . ?

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Nah itsj just the models don't have the resolution to really model showers properly, the flow from 216-240hrs is PERFECT for the SE, I'm betting 6-9 inches in that 24hr period,but the GFS is pretty poor at picking up showers because the resolution is too coarse. According to the GFS the SE never gets snowfall from an easterly  

The EC resolution is picking out plenty of showers. Can't wait for it to come into the range of the UKV

[Penrith Snow]

Come on guys, far to much ramping on here this morning lets try and be a bit more realistic or believe me this will end in tears.

Firstly all the good charts are in FI which in this current set up starts at 144 if not before, remember 'That ECM'

Secondly by the time the intense cold arrives (if it ever does) it will be nearly Spring and to get the severe cold and heavy snow many on herd are expecting would require some truly phenomenal synoptics.

No, I am keeping my feet on the ground and I am expecting a late February 2005 type spell with widespread snow showers and night time frosts but nothing too severe.

Andy

Edited February 18, 2018 by Penrith Snow

[Purga]

The first pulse of the SSW is now pretty much over and the mean 60N 10hPa windspeed is just below zero, however - there are two further pulse 'bounces' with the mean falling again through today.

Whilst that's going on (from the latest ECM run, from which those charts are derived, there's been 17 days of SSW) we can expect all sorts of scatter and 'interesting surprises' to continue in the models!

A fascinating period this indeed !

Edited February 18, 2018 by Purga

[carinthian]

13 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

1978 - my Dad took me out over the fields with a sledge to visit our farm neighbours near Bridgerule in Devon. (I think we were going to get milk as we were totally snowed in). We could step over the hedges from one drift to another, and Devon hedges were really tall! I was 5.

Great post.

C

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Penrith Snow said:

Firstly all the good charts are in FI which in this current set up starts at 144 if not before, remember 'That ECM'

But they're not.. they're at day 5 and the ENS support them, the question remains how cold it gets beyond next weekend but good charts are very much in the reliable.

Day 5 mean

That's about as good as it could possibly get, once we get to that position in 5 days time the rest will follow on nicely, the building blocks to the cold are well and truly within the reliable and within grasp.

"That ECM" was a rouge run, this time around we have solid background support and solid ensemble support, I think getting excited is allowed now.

[Froze were the Days]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

You said it's only the 18z and 6z with the outlandish runs . Every model this week has thrown out stellar runs 00z , 6z ,12z and 18z . ?

On the GFS over the last day (just looking for trends)...glad to see a lot more agreement with the models today though.

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Secondly by the time the intense cold arrives (if it ever does) it will be nearly Spring and to get the severe cold and heavy snow many on herd are expecting would require some truly phenomenal synoptics.

 

Nothing wrong with being grounded - but this bit is not correct. It is not too late in the season for snow from averagely good synoptics. Any easterly draw will be cold and dry enough for snow... and in the modelled shape of things it will be a very long way away from marginal. Time of year is absolutely not a factor.

Getting the undercut positioned correctly, with fronts in the right place, is another debate entirely. Agree with you there - time to take a step back and be a bit circumspect... because if the coldest air drops into France and we end up with a mainly dry easterly then its going to get very messy in here.

I think I read a MetO prediction of 70% of the coldest air hitting the UK. I'll take that for now... but let's not forget the other 30%!!

[Met4Cast]

Adding to my above post.

Mean charts and postage stamps simply do not get better than that.

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Come on guys, far to much ramping on here this morning lets try and be a bit more realistic or believe me this will end in tears.

Firstly all the good charts are in FI which in this current set up starts at 144 if not before, remember 'That ECM'

Secondly by the time the intense arrives (if it ever does) it will be nearly Spring and to get the severe cold and heavy snow many on herd are expecting would require some truly phenomenal synoptics.

No, I am keeping my feet on the ground and I am expecting a late February 2005 type spell with widespread snow showers and night time frosts but nothing too severe.

Andy

  February 27th 2005 - cold spell peak

  February 27th 2018 

Like comparing chalk and cheese no? Different weather patterns and as it stands much of the output is bullish.

Yup it may still not go quite as planned but if the 06z came into fruition the hype would be justified IMO.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=192&carte=&mode=0

 

just some mouth watering  charts so many i could go and do  more!!!

[Summer Sun]

Short ens mean for London dropping below -10 around the 26th

[Retron]

6 minutes ago, Purga said:

The first pulse of the SSW is now pretty much over and the mean 60N 10hPa windspeed is just below zero, however - there are two further pulse 'bounces' with the mean falling again through today.

Whilst that's going on (from the latest ECM run, from which those charts are derived, there's been 17 days of SSW) we can expect all sorts of scatter and 'interesting surprises' to continue in the models!

A fascinating period this indeed !

Purga, why do you keep copying my posts from TWO?

[tight isobar]

Dropping like a fat blokes belly over he-s shorts...

Big support gaining!!!

The london ones ...6z

[ScottishSnowStorm]

Short ensembles for fife and in good agreement 5 runs down to -15c there 

[danm]

46 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

Please no repeat of "that ECM" a few years ago when everything was a dead cert, even down to t48 and then... well we know what. Can remember even the met, bbc etc were certain. Is this set up Any different? Are we in a better position? Or could it all go horribly wrong again?

Anything can change at this range, however the fact we have just witnessed a potentially record breaking SSW means the chances of this easterly collapsing into a more Atlantic dominated pattern over the next 10 days to 2 weeks is very unlikely. The overall pattern now I would think is being accurately modelled. What could always change is the position of the Scandi High, shortwave cropping up etc that could affect the depth of cold reaching us. 

[kold weather]

Just to give an idea of just how cold some of those ensemble runs are, a couple would be cold enough aloft to support a polar low...exceptionally rare to get that level of depth this far south, especially this deep into winter!

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Dropping like a fat blokes belly over he-s shorts...

Big support gaining!!!

The london ones ...6z

God diggidy dog if that's not the best ensemble suite I've seen in my entire life! Support for cold out to the 27th, scatter beyond but still mostly support for cold! Wow.

First time this winter the mean has dropped below -10?

Edited February 18, 2018 by Daniel Smith