Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[kold weather]

Yeah if we are going to get sub -10C temps aloft with pressures below 1030mbs we should spark up some convective activity. IF we go anywhere close to the ECM, there is going to be plenty of embedded troughs and large amounts of convective activity.

Lets see what the 06z GFS brings,would like the upper high a touch south.

[Nick L]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah if we are going to get sub -10C temps aloft with pressures below 1030mbs we should spark up some convective activity. IF we go anywhere close to the ECM, there is going to be plenty of embedded troughs and large amounts of convective activity.

Lets see what the 06z GFS brings,would like the upper high a touch south.

Yep! The EC precip charts are packed with shower activity, heavy and frequent shower activity penetrating well inland. Being picky, it would be great to have these synoptics a bit earlier in the season when the North Sea was a bit warmer, would be a convective machine.

[Froze were the Days]

Bit worried about these shortwaves that GFS is throwing up now and again (particularly in the 0z/12z runs) - just wondering if this is something ECM might pick up after the GFS?...I know the MetO take more notice of the 0z and 12z runs.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[MattStoke]

Flow looks less flabby on the 6z so far. 

6z - 

0z - 

Everything orientated differently. Not sure if that’s better or worse.

Edited February 18, 2018 by MattStoke

[Purga]

BTW MOGREPS pretty much 100% behind the easterly right through now..

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, Purga said:

BTW MOGREPS pretty much 100% behind the easterly right through now..

Source?

[bradymk]

GFS better than its 00z output imo. Heights not too far north and the deep cold delayed more. Like someone said earlier, slower evolution looks cleaner. Let’s see  

Edited February 18, 2018 by bradythemole

[Snowy L]

06z gets the cold in even quicker. In less than 100 hours most of the country is in the -5 uppers

 

 

Not sure what that means for the positioning of the high later though, probably too high again.

[MattStoke]

I think everything looks better orientated on this run. The evolution is slower but should mean deeper and more prolonged cold.

Or I’m reading it wrong and will end up looking an idiot :-)

[Snowy L]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Bit worried about these shortwaves that GFS is throwing up now and again (particularly in the 0z/12z runs) - just wondering if this is something ECM might pick up after the GFS?...I know the MetO take more notice of the 0z and 12z runs.

The shortwaves are there on the ECM too, but because the high is much further South, it is places like North Italy and France having to deal with them intead of the UK.

[SMU]

just T96 & 120 !!! wow

 

[Chertseystreamer79]

Welcome to netweather....

[stratty]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Source?

HP? 

[Snowy L]

1 minute ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Welcome to netweather....

Haha ok yeah I am wrong the center of the high is about 500 miles further south on this run.

06z                                                     00z

[winterof79]

And so it begins

[kold weather]

The upper high is in a far better position for sustained cold and we are geftting in the cold air in just over 4 days now, so thats looking locked in now,its the big cold that is uncertain.

Cooling down through Thurs and Fri, probably weak convection starting by 120hrs but would be a wintry mix, especially during the day.

[WalsallWeather123]

Don't think you can get a better chart. Heights much further south than the 0z. Will help a more prolonged cold spell and heavy snow showers headed our way with those pressures.

Edited February 18, 2018 by WalsallWeather123

[MattStoke]

-8 uppers pushing across the UK next Saturday.

-10 into the South East next Sunday.

For those saying it’s still 10 days away.

[Day 10]

Looks a better angle of attack on this run.

Oz

6z

Much bigger cold pool to tap into

Oz

6z

 

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

-8 uppers pushing across the UK next Saturday.

-10 into the South East next Sunday.

For those saying it’s still 10 days away.

-12 sir

 

[Met4Cast]

The low being further North over Europe is actually helping us out on this run.

More forcing advecting the cold Westwards towards the UK keeps the flow tight and prevents shortwave development from blocking the cold from arriving, fantastic 06z, shame it's the 06z and its the GFS but still, good to see the continuation of minor adjustments for the better. 

[kold weather]

Yep and this 06z run shows why a further south upper high is better...

Anyway this is going to be another epic run. The flow is still a little flabby on the southern side as the low over the Azores pumps up the pressure close to our shores but still great synoptics.

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

-12 sir

 

-14 sir sir ?

[Uncle Gargy]

Will be interesting to keep an eye on weather news and reports in Europe as the cold marches towards us.

[WalsallWeather123]

GFS 6z vs 0z. Warm air wiining on the 0z. No way that will happen if the 6z verfies. Prolonged cold spell