Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Surprised no comments on this feature in the north sea providing a wall to prevent the coldest uppers making the journey to the UK....for southern parts anyway.....a little shortwave drama to come?

 

It might prevent the coldest uppers reaching the UK for a time, but it also brings with it bands of heavy snow, so I'll take it..

[Captain Shortwave]

10 minutes ago, ptow said:

Yesterday those deep blues were over us on the 27. Today its the 28

Actually, this was yesterdays 00z run from the ECM at day 10

   

This mornings run for the same time.

   

So actually the ECM has brought the cold forward (850s cold enough for snow arrive by Monday morning which is the 26th.). Other models actually bring this in quicker still. We are firming up on the potential for a potentially severe easterly setting up with the possiblity of the winds turning more north/north easterly as the high transfers westwards towards Greenland as we enter March. So I think the trend is certainly in favour of conditions we haven't seen in years.

[ICE COLD]

I'm so relieved. Just did not wanna look this morning . Brilliant runs all round and when I saw the ECM charts like these , I gave it an early morning fist punch . Get in there my son ? . STUNNING 

[Banbury]

7 minutes ago, craigore said:

Im aware its still 7-10 days out.

One question. Is this a cold dry Easterly ? Or will there be moisture of a Snow kind coming out of Eastern europe. 

Bbc still saying cold & grey right up until nxt Sunday ( no snow.) S.E contingent.

If we are gonna have to turn our heating up full notch we want some kind of reward.. 

C.

I wouldn’t worry it’s too far out to think about snow , it’s hard to pinpoint snow at the best of times 

[Deep Snow please]

6 minutes ago, craigore said:

Im aware its still 7-10 days out.

One question. Is this a cold dry Easterly ? Or will there be moisture of a Snow kind coming out of Eastern europe. 

Bbc still saying cold & grey right up until nxt Sunday ( no snow.) S.E contingent.

If we are gonna have to turn our heating up full notch we want some kind of reward.. 

C.

As the saying goes "get cold air first, then worry about snow".

You'll almost certainly get real frosts, and provided there's enough convective activity showers will come in. A few model runs have shown low pressure blizzards as well.

[TEITS]

On 16/02/2018 at 10:08, TEITS said:

Well im glad I have remained sat on the fence these past few days.

Following on from my post yesterday about the ensembles and you have to laugh at the 0Z GEFS ensembles and what a waste of time they have been. Remember the mean was once sat at -7C is now at +2C. Remember all those wonderful GEFS mean charts showing the blocking over Scandi/Greenland? The point is continue following the operationals during this spell of model mayhem!

The odds of the E,ly like the ECM shows remains at 35% for me, like yesterday. If I had to make a forecast I would say high pressure sat over the UK with the chance of this high extending further N&W towards end of the month.

Im quoting myself because my word so much has changed since this post above.

Thankfully since then we have finally got most of the output to sing from the same hymn sheet with the UKMO/ECM looking stunning this morning. I have noted this morning a few moans about how this is still 10 days away but this isn't strictly true. What you have to remember is if you get the blocking in the ideal location and orientation then the bitter airmass has to come this way even if it arrives a few days later. Besides this anyone who finds anything negative about the output today really needs a new hobby because this is about as good as it gets.

Going back to my quoted post above and its funny how fickle the ensembles can be. Note I mention the mean increasing from -7c to 2C and now today the mean is back to -7C.

Based on all the output the current timing of when the bitter E,ly could arrive with the potential of snow showers arriving is somewhere around late Mon-Tues.

[kold weather]

The ECM has been very consistant that the -5C isotherm comes over the east of UK in the first half of 26th. That dhas been been that way the last few days at least.

Amazing ECM ensembles overall again, still some uncertainty regarding exact placements of the high BUT nearly all are deep cold at least for 36hrs.

Lets pray the train keeps rolling, at least I think some form of easterly is a near certainty, but will we get the big one?

[nobble]

-13 850,s on the west coast of Ireland 

that's impressive

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, ptow said:

Initially the real cold started showing on the models as the 18th it is now the 28th

This was a response of the modelling either to the MJO or a QTR 

its clear now that the strength of the Canadian vortex required taking down before we are able to build an effective scandi ridge 

the drivers have changed which makes this broad evolution plausible. 

Clear from the ncep suite that an early arrival of the cold (whilst more likely to verify on timescale alone) drives a bigger risk than the slower solution (other models) because it comes in at a higher latitude and creates more shortwaves. It also allows the Azores trough to tilt ne rather than drive east into Europe. 

squeaky bum time

[Banbury]

6 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Surprised no comments on this feature in the north sea providing a wall to prevent the coldest uppers making the journey to the UK....for southern parts anyway.....a little shortwave drama to come?

 

Bringing snow right across us ?

[Summer Sun]

UKMO has a better flow from the SE than ECM does at t168

[Wardlegacy]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

It might prevent the coldest uppers reaching the UK for a time, but it also brings with it bands of heavy snow, so I'll take it..

It might but it could also lead to a quick breakdown. I guess the short waves are being triggered by the cold uppers travelling across the North Sea? They do concern me a little at the present time. Hopefully nothing to worry about maybe someone knowledgable could explain them!

[Bottled Snow]

2 hours ago, Banbury said:

Very good

No quick route to mild from there. Ties in with Met forecasting that this could be a prolonged cold spell  

[Rocheydub]

Some posters here a bit concerned that initially, this El’y was programmed to appear 20/2. But for those of us model watching for years, El’ys nearly always take 2/3 bites of the cherry to set up properly! There’s nothing unusual about this at all... APART FROM HOW FLIPPING COLD ITS GONNA GET!!!

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Surprised no comments on this feature in the north sea providing a wall to prevent the coldest uppers making the journey to the UK....for southern parts anyway.....a little shortwave drama to come?

 

It does prevent the deepest cold but we are still around -10C, plenty cold enough and that shortwave would probably spark alot of convective activity. So swings and roundabouts really.

[bluearmy]

34 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM Control run has one of the smoothest transitions from Scandi-Greenland high I've seen, from cold easterly straight to cold NE. I'm going to go through the rest of the ensembles and see what they have for us.

The control is astonishing right out to day 15. I could add that one of yesterday’s brought us above av uppers arond the high so it’s not the best indicator. However, it does fit well with the extended eps 

[OldBloke]

Interestingly, the NetWeather snow forecast chart has very little snow for the UK right up to the 27th and then from the 28th very mild air from the South West. This is very different from last night where they had the UK under a blanket of snow for days. Yes, it is going to be cold for about 10 days but that is about it according to their morning chart.

[Summer Sun]

Another shift down overnight from the ECM mean with it dipping down to around -6c midweek and again at the end

Yesterday 12z

Today 00z

[MattStoke]

8 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

Interestingly, the NetWeather snow forecast chart has very little snow for the UK right up to the 27th and then from the 28th very mild air from the South West. This is very different from last night where they had the UK under a blanket of snow for days. Yes, it is going to be cold for about 10 days but that is about it according to their morning chart.

It just uses raw data from the GFS op, as far as I’m aware.

[Astral Goat Juice]

15 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

Interestingly, the NetWeather snow forecast chart has very little snow for the UK right up to the 27th and then from the 28th very mild air from the South West. This is very different from last night where they had the UK under a blanket of snow for days. Yes, it is going to be cold for about 10 days but that is about it according to their morning chart.

I seriously wouldn't be concerning yourself with precipitation 10 days out. 

Thicknesses are Good, and convection should be plenty. 

Don't pay attention to automated forecasts concerning snow 10 days out.

[bluearmy]

Incidentally, the ecm op cold pool is currently detaching itself from the n Siberian vortex as it begins its ten day journey to w Europe. If only we knew what was written on its ticket as a final destination ........

[MattStoke]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Incidentally, the ecm op cold pool is currently detaching itself from the n Siberian vortex as it begins its ten day journey to w Europe. If only we knew what was written on its ticket as a final destination ........

Picking up it’s Oyster Card as we speak.

[Youcan'tbecirrus]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Incidentally, the ecm op cold pool is currently detaching itself from the n Siberian vortex as it begins its ten day journey to w Europe. If only we knew what was written on its ticket as a final destination ........

It will be interesting to track temps across the relevant cities across Europe as it makes progress. 

[Cloud 10]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Incidentally, the ecm op cold pool is currently detaching itself from the n Siberian vortex as it begins its ten day journey to w Europe. If only we knew what was written on its ticket as a final destination ........

 

Looks like Brighton.

 

[Ruzzi]

1 hour ago, Roadrunner said:

Well I'm in the doghouse. The missus was trying to get 'romantic' this morning but I was too busy watching the ECM roll out. She now going garrety and thinks I'm cheating on her with a weather model. She just doesn't understand. Why did I marry this woman? 

 

In all seriousness, stunning stuff over the last 24 hours. In the words of GP - IT'S COMING. 

Sounds like GP was the only one saying that this morning ??

ECM still looking rosey and at least we finally have some agreement that it will get colder from the east. It's just what happens afterwards but there will be so many surprises along the way, especially if we can get that really unstable cold air advecting westwards across the U.K.

there will be snow chances a plenty popping up at T24 here there and everywhere with such a cold airmass and strong easterly flow.