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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Impressive. We await the London ones!

6C57CC5D-E23E-4135-88B3-D331AB9AA22A.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well that was a relief!

Its got to that point now were for UK coldies its nerve shredding  so as I'm a long suffering UK coldie by proxy very happy to see no major dramas this morning.

The ECM is fantastic because remember the flock of sheep analogy from last night.

The block builds in  a better position to usher in the deep cold to the UK.

The UKMO at T168hrs from what we can see looks great aswell.

Yes at 168 UKMO looks very good shame I cant post it as it elongates the image.I am sure Gavin will oblige.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Ahaa should add that it shows a direct Easterly flow

 

ukm2.2018022500.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

ECM Control run has one of the smoothest transitions from Scandi-Greenland high I've seen, from cold easterly straight to cold NE. I'm going to go through the rest of the ensembles and see what they have for us.

Yes but it’s still 10 days till the real stuff hits us. As has been the case for the last 2 weeks

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
9 minutes ago, ptow said:

Yes but it’s still 10 days till the real stuff hits us. As has been the case for the last 2 weeks

More like 7/8 days. It’s been brought forward the past few days, not back, and the set up for it is in place earlier than that. It hasn’t been showing on the output for past 2 weeks anyway, but it has always been late February that the pros and most knowledgable posters have pointed to.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
2 minutes ago, ptow said:

Yes but it’s still 10 days till the real stuff hits us. As has been the case for the last 2 weeks

I know it has felt that like all winter. But not true in this case, this is very different. 

Now down to Day 8 on ECM op and the building blocks are in place before this!

1ED50308-C8AE-4A03-8F97-ED35AD46A93E.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
3 minutes ago, ptow said:

Yes but it’s still 10 days till the real stuff hits us. As has been the case for the last 2 weeks

Eh

2 weeks ago it was 24 days away ....if your unsure read the Met update and see there forecast .

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl

Regards the Day 10 comment above, your simply wrong - latest charts from this morning start at around Day 6/7. Certainly seems to be edging ever closer now, with Day 6/7/8 all trending cold to very cold we could be looking at it actually coming off. Still a few days until we can tell the families and friends under NW superstition though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crowborough East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: warm sunny days, tons of snow!
  • Location: Crowborough East Sussex
2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Regards the Day 10 comment above, your simply wrong - latest charts from this morning start at around Day 6/7. Certainly seems to be edging ever closer now, with Day 6/7/8 all trending cold to very cold we could be looking at it actually coming off. Still a few days until we can tell the families and friends under NW superstition though. 

I don't think it's superstition, I believe it's a law

Edited by leemondo
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Posted
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
6 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

I know it has felt that like all winter. But not true in this case, this is very different. 

Now down to Day 8 on ECM op and the building blocks are in place before this!

1ED50308-C8AE-4A03-8F97-ED35AD46A93E.gif

Yesterday those deep blues were over us on the 27. Today its the 28

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
2 minutes ago, nytram43 said:

t850Hampshire.png

Still can't see where this might go by next week end???

I can the light blue run that goes to -17c that’s the trend setter you know past next weekend:cold:

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
7 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Eh

2 weeks ago it was 24 days away ....if your unsure read the Met update and see there forecast .

Initially the real cold started showing on the models as the 18th it is now the 28th

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Regards the Day 10 comment above, your simply wrong - latest charts from this morning start at around Day 6/7. Certainly seems to be edging ever closer now, with Day 6/7/8 all trending cold to very cold we could be looking at it actually coming off. Still a few days until we can tell the families and friends under NW superstition though. 

Let me clarify as a member of the Netweather family liaison committee, no member is to tell any family member until 48 hours (2 days) before the brutal cold hits.  If in any doubt please contact the committee for further guidance.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
3 minutes ago, ptow said:

Yesterday those deep blues were over us on the 27. Today its the 28

It is still 27th. It’s just the midnight runs show the time as 1am on 27th whereas 12z runs show 13:00 27th

This is 01:00am 27th. By midday they’d be right over UK

FA23D773-0BFF-4EFE-BE1A-9C1590CA1428.gif

Edited by bradythemole
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Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.

Im aware its still 7-10 days out.

One question. Is this a cold dry Easterly ? Or will there be moisture of a Snow kind coming out of Eastern europe. 

Bbc still saying cold & grey right up until nxt Sunday ( no snow.) S.E contingent.

If we are gonna have to turn our heating up full notch we want some kind of reward.. 

C.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Just now, craigore said:

Im aware its still 7-10 days out.

One question. Is this a cold dry Easterly ? Or will there be moisture of a Snow kind coming out of Eastern europe. 

Bbc still saying cold & grey right up until nxt Sunday ( no snow.) S.E contingent.

If we are gonna have to turn our heating up full notch we want some kind of reward.. 

C.

Depends on how high/low pressure is and the depth of cold. Low heights (lower pressure) and deep cold coming over the relatively warm sea would be best for convection, producing snow showers.

It’s really too early to know.

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Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
5 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

I know it has felt that like all winter. But not true in this case, this is very different. 

Now down to Day 8 on ECM op and the building blocks are in place before this!

1ED50308-C8AE-4A03-8F97-ED35AD46A93E.gif

Yes we are under an easterly influence a few days from now. It is only a matter of how long it takes the really cold uppers to reach our shores. Looking at this mornings charts, days 7 to 8 seems a good call but temperatures are slowly droping each day from midweek onwards as the high is already in place. However don't be surprised to see it turn colder a day or two earlier as this is a very rare event and I feel models may still be underestimating the full potential of this record breaking SSW 

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Surprised no comments on this feature in the north sea providing a wall to prevent the coldest uppers making the journey to the UK....for southern parts anyway.....a little shortwave drama to come?

 

Screenshot_20180218-090511.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Gravesend (by the thames) and work Borough Green deliveries on job around the South east
  • Weather Preferences: Snow November to March. Heat and sun late April to early October
  • Location: Gravesend (by the thames) and work Borough Green deliveries on job around the South east
37 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Not a bad ensemble mean i guess:db:

 

the gfs ensembles have been flip flopping for ages now ,is their any point to them

 

Isnt there a reason why the met don't use the GFS? Just seems like it's lagging behind a lot of the time. Wasn't the UKMO and ECM more SE rather than E the other day? 

Edited by John Michael How
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
8 minutes ago, ptow said:

Initially the real cold started showing on the models as the 18th it is now the 28th

With no cross model agreement , the Mets updates have been good with first mention of this at the start of Feb . 

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