Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[MattStoke]

ECM 0z yesterday had the cold approaching at 240 hours.

12z had it reaching the UK at 216 hours.

0z this morning has it arriving at 192 hours.

Not really pushed back. Good consistency.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

It’s unheard of end of feb,what sort of conditions are we talking about here,crippling for some I would think

I’m sure the more knowledgable would have an idea, I wonder if it could match the cold of 87 even though that was in Jan. without the sun it must have a chance

[Fingers]

7 minutes ago, Banbury said:

How good Is that ?

That is a thing of beauty!! What else can you say??? Wouldn’t normally even view day 10 charts but it’s pretty good from t72 and just serenely flows out to t240!! Great stuff, wishing the days away to get it closer! ?

[Frosty.]

In the words of Ian Brown..WTF...i dont know what to say!!!

Jaw dropping...Eye popping Ecm 00z!! ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’m sure the more knowledgable would have an idea, I wonder if it could match the cold of 87 even though that was in Jan. without the sun it must have a chance

In 87 our max temp on 2 days was -6 at midday! !!.I think thats a big ask.great run this morning and altho a dry week coming up beyond that if things model wise work out the north sea will do its thing and bingo.Still a lot of variation to come im sure but imo the evolution will see any heighths post part 2 ssw move to greenland

[January Snowstorm]

Have to give massive credit to Chino and Catacol who called exactly this over a week ago!!

Also the Met have been very consistent about cold easterlys when let's face it their usually the opposite 

[Weather-history]

18 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

It’s unheard of end of feb,what sort of conditions are we talking about here,crippling for some I would think

I'ts not unheard of, it has happened before. 

Late Feb '62

As for conditions, cast your mind back to the second week of March 2013 when he had that brief but very cold easterly blast and project that two weeks earlier. 

[Frosty.]

Just to show how unbiased, fair and balanced i am...here are a few mild charts from the Gfs 00z

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I'ts not unheard of, it has happened before. 

Late Feb '62

As for conditions, cast your mind back to the second week of March 2013 when he had that brief but very cold easterly blast and project that two weeks earlier. 

Hi Kevin, do you know what the temps were at that time?

If anything the EC00z has even lower uppers..

[Nick L]

Good grief, I nearly fell off my chair when I got into work and saw the EC! That is some severe cold, would bring heavy snow showers well inland with borderline blizzard conditions in places. Shame it's so far away!

[Steady Easterly]

21 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Have to give massive credit to Chino and Catacol who called exactly this over a week ago!!

Also the Met have been very consistent about cold easterlys when let's face it their usually the opposite 

I would urge caution, it hasnt happened yet, some stunning output though, we have a much higher chance of the elusive convective deep cold Easterly this time.

[KTtom]

The operational runs from the 'big 3' must be good...no one has dragged the ICON out!

[Met4Cast]

So the initial Easterly is now in range and we can be confident of it developing. The ENS show good support out to around the 24th for gradually declining temperatures

Beyond then the spread goes mental, the op is on the warmer side in the extended range but not completely without support, there is a bigger cluster for colder weather to continue.

Whether we can get the deep cold in as cleanly as the ECM remains to be seen, I suspect there will be more shortwaves in the flow, this can work to our advantage bringing snowfall into the East but it could also deflect the coldest air North or South of us, so lots of uncertainty going forward but we're getting closer, now we know the initial Easterly is a go, we're sitting in a good place.

No major backtrack from the models this morning, GFS, UKMO, ECM are all very good.

[Frosty.]

Hard to believe the Ecm 00z is a mild outlier....just kidding, I meant the Gfs probably is in low res!!

[MattStoke]

ECM maximum day time temperatures for Tuesday 27th from this morning's run.

27'F is roughly -2'C.

Edited February 18, 2018 by MattStoke

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ECM maximum day time temperatures for Tuesday 27th from this morning's run.

27'F is roughly -2'C.

It's even "better" than that in the SE!

 

[Polar Maritime]

I don't know Nick, Aviemore -4c..

[Deep Snow please]

You have to think this is building up to something special. The old no smoke without fire thing. We've had run after run of fantasy synoptics from different models; either there is actually an issue with the mods being over-adjusted for cold on the back of an SSW or we are on the cusp of the best UK winter weather for years. Every run just seems to get better and better, the only way from here has to be down.

[mulzy]

EPS strong support for the Det.  Mean charts are going to be good!

[Frosty.]

Anyway, the 00z model trend for the week ahead is a mild monday with patchy rain as we will be within a warm front sector, but that's the only mild day as winds then turn easterly and gradually freshen with temps dropping a little each day from tuesday onwards but also becoming largely fine with increasing amounts of sunshine ?but with frosty nights...and then things could become very exciting with snow, drifting and severe frosts and wind chill etc..  

Edited February 18, 2018 by Frosty.

[chris55]

All formats should be represented with charts like these  

 insanely cold days 9/10! 

And with these kind of charts popping up left right and centre from various models on various runs you'd have to say we are in with a shout of something similar actually verifying.

 

[bradymk]

Best set of ECM ENS yet. Hopefully the milder members have decreased again (awaiting graph). Mean looks around -8/-9c 850hpa Day 9/10

Ens also better than the op before +144

[Sky Full]

Now we can be pretty confident that HLB will bring easterly winds to the UK for several days, if not longer, from next Friday.  But how do the models see the conditions progressing from there?   There seems to be much still to be resolved as the following charts indicate:

                                                +120hr (23rd Feb).                            +216h (27th Feb)

ECM   500s             

GFS   500s             

GEM   500s            

JMA   500s             

ECM.  850s             

GFS.   850s             

GEM.  850s             

JMA.   850s.            

Even at +120 there is no solid agreement regarding the starting conditions (although the JMA does look a lot like the ECM), so it's no surprise that only four days later the models have diverged - the blocking is in three different places by +216, the codest to air is further south, east or north depending on which model you prefer, and the winds are at different strengths.  The actual conditions we see could therefore vary widely from the current models by that time and we will just have to keep watching   

Too many charts?      Possibly, but I find it difficult to compare the performance of the operationals unless I see them side by side.  I am trying to be completely indifferent to the possibly record breaking conditions which are being forecast for 10 days away, the details of which we cannot know at this range, because I am more interested to see which model gets closest to the correct evolution.  It's fair to say that in later frames all the models show some pretty amazing conditions which may turn out to be almost unheard of at this time of year, but quite how that will affect us around the country and how long it will last cannot yet be confidently predicted..... Except that it will be cold 

Anyway, we will no doubt all be spending far too much time glued to the PC screen, or our mobile phones, over the next two weeks, to the point where it may cause friction at home - so don't forget to feed the dog and occasionally talk to your significant others out there in NETWEATHER land!

[Snowy L]

Think bluearmy said something about this yesterday, GFS takes the high pressure too far North so we have annoying shortwaves deflecting the main cold and we become far more vulnerable to attacks from the Atlantic. We may have to wait longer for ECM and UKMO, but I would prefer them if it meant the Scandi high being closer to us.

[Team Jo]

<peeps in><thanks weather gods for good output this morning>

Please continue to keep it friendly - there’s oodles of space in the Ramps thread and a dedicated cold spell thread thread to wax lyrical on winters gone by, it’s not that those comments aren’t interesting, they are! They just tend to derail the discussion