Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Rayth]

Well I can’t grumble about that spaghetti on my locale plate !! 

[Banbury]

There are definitely a few that take it too far North ......seeing as FI is so early nothing to worry about 

Good runs so far I’d say 

[radiohead]

Quite the difference between the GFS and ECM at 120

GFS

ECM

[January Snowstorm]

ECM is very poor so far at total odds with every other model at 120hrs. .....surely an outlier

Edit though it gets there at 144hrs it's very late to the party!

Edited February 18, 2018 by January Snowstorm

[Dennis]

i realy hate the continuous difference of the weather-models  - but in times of an SSW its a normal thing to see happen

Edited February 18, 2018 by Dennis

[Rayth]

Screaming potential at T168

[Banbury]

9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

ECM is very poor so far at total odds with every other model at 120hrs. .....surely an outlier

Edit though it gets there at 144hrs it's very late to the party!

Very poor oh come off it , there isn’t that much difference between that and UKMO

 

[Dennis]

end of the week ......

[Banbury]

Can’t grumble eh?

[Met4Cast]

If this is what we can consider "poor" then I'll take poor!

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

If this is what we can consider "poor" then I'll take poor!

How good does that look from a NH perspective - perfect 

Like a dinasaur about to eat the UK

Edited February 18, 2018 by Ali1977

[Rayth]

Someone’s knocking on the door , someone’s ringing the bell 

 

 

open the door ... and let them in 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Raythan

[MattStoke]

ECM looks great to me.

Hopefully the GFS is overdoing the Atlantic influence with the high too far north. It almost always overdoes the Atlantic influence.

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

If this is what we can consider "poor" then I'll take poor!

Yes very good at 192hrs just years of model watching makes me nervy when anything gets delayed

[Ali1977]

ECM is giving us the best run yet - extreme (for the UK)  cold from next weekend with blizzards and drifting. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Ali1977

[Dennis]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Yes very good at 192hrs just years of model watching makes me nervy when anything gets delayed

I realy dont understand why ppl said it will happen at ealier days - the SSW has happend 10-12 febr 2018..... it cant be that quick: most of the times it will need 2-3 weeks when we see some outcome.....

[Banbury]

Very good

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM is giving us the best run yet - extreme (for the UK)  cold from next weekend with blizzards and drifting. 

It’s a great run, a tad cold I’d say 

[Captain Shortwave]

The path of that cold pool is pretty much perfect from the ECM as it avoids the Baltic and north sea, very very clean advection and would probably see 850s bottom out around -18c across the south east with possibly -14/15c widely across the UK. That is bitterly cold.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[Rayth]

T216  -10 , -12 , -13 and -14 patches all over the UK  

cabinet meetings 

 

[SLEETY]

Not often you see that depth of cold at end of feb,record breaking surely

Its just INSANE

[January Snowstorm]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The path of that cold pool is pretty much perfect from the ECM as it avoids the Baltic and north sea, very very clean advection and would probably see 850s bottom out around -18c across the south east with possibly -14/15c widely across the UK. That is bitterly cold.

Coupled with a gale force wind!!

Awesome run after 168hrs

Edited February 18, 2018 by January Snowstorm

[Banbury]

How good Is that ?

[SLEETY]

It’s unheard of end of feb,what sort of conditions are we talking about here,crippling for some I would think

[mulzy]

ECM 0z run - BANK!!!!

ECM 240 chart - What.A.Chart - the best we have seen in this insane period of model watching!

Edited February 18, 2018 by mulzy