Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Team Jo]

Can we just turn the computers off and just all sit happy with what we’ve seen tonight? No more torturing ourselves with the next set of runs......

eeeeeep!

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Now I know that this is not the ramp thread , but jeez what a run. Mr Murr may be *very drunk* abroad somewhere, but when he sobers up he may just think he dreamed it. Well he hasn't. This is now the best run ever seen in the internet age - it has surpassed the last few days and that is saying something. Enjoy the synoptics folks!

to be honest, the 06z was better, it had absolutely mental snow amounts for the whole country. but hey, i'm just being picky. i'll take this run if i have to... 

[stodge]

Evening all

A near ice day next Sunday for the east.

Superb though this is, I'd put the 06Z a notch in front.

Edited February 17, 2018 by stodge
adding detail

[pureasthedriven]

13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Holy schmoley!  If this happened I'd wet myself, but it would freeze!  GFS T264:

Looks a bit flat ??

[bobbydog]

Just now, Team Jo said:

Can we just turn the computers off and just all sit happy with what we’ve seen tonight? No more torturing ourselves with the next set of runs......

eeeeeep!

have you been on the prosecco jo? 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

To think I described the GFS 06z as oozing epicicity, there are no words to describe this one, not even made up ones!    Here at T216:

Accurate?.......

 

BFTP

[Daniel]

6 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Extended JMA says to GFS - hold my beer.

 

Yep JAM is incredible aswell  

as well 

[Frosty.]

Stunning Gfs 18z..looking forward to upgrades on the 00z!

Extremely severe wintry spell would be the outcome.

[Jason M]

Wouldn't be surprised to see ECM be quicker tomorrow bringing the real cold in as the sudden deepening of lows to our NW does look at bit odd and overdone. The only danger now that I can see is that the sheer depth of cold causes a 'shortwave' to form and cuts off the flow. I think that's odds against but its still a risk (did say this earlier this evening before it got deleted without explanation).

Amazing charts this evening though and the building blocks are in place early which has to be encouraging. Don't think we will be ignoring ICON in the future either!!

 

 

 

[Southender]

Would be a shock for the East coast of the US as well with an Easterly from Siberia.

Absolutely bonkers run, it should be illegal. Anyway enough with these mild outliers, about time some cold runs started showing  ?

Edited February 17, 2018 by Southender

[Hodgheg]

3 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Yep JAM is incredible aswell  

as well 

The JAM? Thats a new one. Although that would describe the consistency of the atmosphere if that came off.

[markw2680]

2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see ECM be quicker tomorrow bringing the real cold in as the sudden deepening of lows to our NW does look at bit odd and overdone. The only danger now that I can see is that the sheer depth of cold causes a 'shortwave' to form and cuts off the flow. I think that's odds against but its still a risk (did say this earlier this evening before it got deleted without explanation).

Amazing charts this evening though and the building blocks are in place early which has to be encouraging. Don't think we will be ignoring ICON in the future either!!

 

 

 

I’d say there’s definitely that risk of shortwave hell, it’s happened before many times but this just feels right I think. We will no in a few days if this is here for the long haul 

[Pembroke Dangler]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Accurate?.......

 

BFTP

The thing is the GFS is meant to be the most progressive of the models and always try’s to revert to climatology......... the easterly is actually hitting the east coast of Canada 

[ICE COLD]

The runs over the last few days across all models have thrown out epic runs . Can anyone remember seeing such charts consistently run out with such cold uppers hitting the uk . TIA ?

[Daniel]

2 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

The JAM? Thats a new one. Although that would describe the consistency of the atmosphere if that came off.

Yep hahah I think I'm taken back a little from both the "jam" and gfs ?

[Team Jo]

5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

have you been on the prosecco jo? 

Nope. I’m a scotch drinker. ANYWAY.  Let’s just enjoy this, it’s Saturday, there’s 300 people reading tonight, itching for an easterly that might just bloody come off and I don’t want to wake up tomorrow, wading through treacle and doom because the “00z isn’t as good as the pub run’ for the fifth day running.  That’s all! 

 

[ITSY]

Haven't yet figured out how to copy pics on my new android but the mean at t120 is FAR more amplified up into scandal, with a slack and dryish easterly already in place. Big short-med term upgrade there. 

Edit: Scandi - though the charts are scandalous. Put Mr Freud away! 

Edited February 17, 2018 by ITSY

[Purga]

Epic run tonight, hope we don't get the morning hangovers..

Enjoy

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, ITSY said:

Haven't yet figured out how to copy pics on my new android but the mean at t120 is FAR more amplified up into scandal, with a slack and dryish easterly already in place. Big short-med term upgrade there. 

Here you go. 

Upgrades upgrades.

 

 

[Sweetdream]

3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see ECM be quicker tomorrow bringing the real cold in as the sudden deepening of lows to our NW does look at bit odd and overdone. The only danger now that I can see is that the sheer depth of cold causes a 'shortwave' to form and cuts off the flow. I think that's odds against but its still a risk (did say this earlier this evening before it got deleted without explanation).

Amazing charts this evening though and the building blocks are in place early which has to be encouraging. Don't think we will be ignoring ICON in the future either!!

 

 

 

The short wave is on the 12z it has featured in the last two gfs runs. Also on the ecm.  Nick did allude to this happening with the depth of cold so that we could all keep track when the models came out.  I would love like every one else for an epic end to winter but we have been here so many times with the models getting into the reliable for it all to go belly up due to a shortwave. I can see this going the same way and watching Europe get the mother load of snow and we are left with dregs.  I would love more then anything to be wrong but these pesky short waves are not going to disappear or evaporate ?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

24 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Now I know that this is not the ramp thread , but jeez what a run. Mr Murr may be *very drunk* abroad somewhere, but when he sobers up he may just think he dreamed it. Well he hasn't. This is now the best run ever seen in the internet age - it has surpassed the last few days and that is saying something. Enjoy the synoptics folks!

And when he sees it Ed he will

1. Get 1st flight home

2. Get back on the bottle

BFTP

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

Looks a bit flat ??

Agreed. Zonal!

[Pembroke Dangler]

So we have a vicious circle ⭕️ and it’s a circle of cold that has the propensity to keep reloading never seen such a a synoptic just wow wow wow 

[supernova]

11 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

Can we just turn the computers off and just all sit happy with what we’ve seen tonight? No more torturing ourselves with the next set of runs......

eeeeeep!

Not sure I've ever seen such a Team Jo ramp!  Think tonight will be remembered as the night we were allowed to bask in model perfection, the night when promise proved better than reality. For sure it's unlikely ever to be repeated. What a series of runs we've seen today. Memorable. Great to watch the drama, and the reaction on Netweather unfold. Thanks to everyone who contributes and makes this the best weather forum on the 'net. 

[Brucie]

If only this was January??!

All models are firming up on agreement with this easterly flow.  If / when it does occur, it will be one of these very rare (relative to the old days) very cold easterlies and we will definitely know about it! The prospect of ice days in late Feb is highly unusual.  We may even get more than 2" of snow from this here in Northallerton.

David