Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Purga]

13 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

The cold pool is back building...

Yes and signs of retrogression Eddie

renewed Arctic plunge waiting to top up...

Edited February 17, 2018 by Purga

[ALL ABOARD]

Its about to drop another lobe of the PV into europe . 

[Catacol]

Yep - all about upgrades. I think the Canadian vortex is set to be overmodelled. Signs that the easterly may come more quickly and with more fizz. Great stuff.

[chionomaniac]

Now I know that this is not the ramp thread , but jeez what a run. Mr Murr may be *very drunk* abroad somewhere, but when he sobers up he may just think he dreamed it. Well he hasn't. This is now the best run ever seen in the internet age - it has surpassed the last few days and that is saying something. Enjoy the synoptics folks!

Edited February 17, 2018 by chionomaniac

[ICE COLD]

Oh nooooo we're running out of cold air in Europe ???

Edited February 17, 2018 by ICE COLD

[blizzard81]

This run is absolutely outrageous! 

[Duncan McAlister]

Even the west may not lose out on snow 

[ITSY]

Oh my days. Sat in respectful silence while visiting my bro this weekend but I cannot stay zipped any longer. This run is breathtaking. Reloading AGAIN! Genuinely the best run I have ever seen in my lifetime and I am not hyperbolosing 

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by ITSY

[Mike Poole]

Holy schmoley!  If this happened I'd wet myself, but it would freeze!  GFS T264:

[bluearmy]

Two cold pool hits in one run and potentially a third before it’s done 

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Pub run special, it's absolutely bladdered! 

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

The charts are beginning to hint on agreement now. I believe we are on the cusp of seeing a monster Easterly incursion that will give the British Isles sub zero temperatures not seen since 1987 with high probability of deep snowfall especially across Eastern and South Eastern areas. Exciting times ahead for chart watchers.

Edited February 17, 2018 by Polar Walker

[The Eagle]

Nothing like a good old fashioned gale force easterly.

[Catacol]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Now I know that this is not the ramp thread , but jeez what a run. Mr Murr may be *very drunk* abroad somewhere, but when he sobers up he may just think he dreamed it. Well he hasn't. This is now the best run ever seen in the internet age - it has surpassed the last few days and that is saying something. Enjoy the synoptics folks!

I dont tend to like overuse of the word - but on this run the south would be truly buried.

[bluearmy]

I think it got so coñfused running reversed for so long that eventually the run has simply broken at T312

[Deep Snow please]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Now I know that this is not the ramp thread , but jeez what a run. Mr Murr may be *very drunk* abroad somewhere, but when he sobers up he may just think he dreamed it. Well he hasn't. This is now the best run ever seen in the internet age - it has surpassed the last few days and that is saying something. Enjoy the synoptics folks!

Please can you guys suspended ramping rules for one night. I'll post the rest of this in a hope we get a yes.

 

"If it verifies" That is quite simply peak cold, an event that would go down with the winters of 1963 and 1947 in the history books, constantly reloading and perishing. It could even surpass them in that it's unexpectedly late in the winter and so far removed from surrounding weather; it's incredible.

[markw2680]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Holy schmoley!  If this happened I'd wet myself, but it would freeze!  GFS T264:

I think we may be starting to get sick of the cold and snow by then. I’d like to find out though....#BRINGITON 

[Catacol]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Please can you guys suspended ramping rules for one night. I'll post the rest of this in a hope we get a yes.

 

"If it verifies" That is quite simply peak cold, an event that would go down with the winters of 1963 and 1947 in the history books, constantly reloading and perishing. It could even surpass them in that it's unexpectedly late in the winter and so far removed from surrounding weather; it's incredible.

I think forget cold - we'd be digging through drifts at least half a metre deep....

[kold weather]

252-264hrs chart maybe two of the most outrageous charts I've seen for snow, 1010-1000mbs pressure, deep cold aloft.That screams instability and probably a shed load of convection. 

Anyway anything else is pretty much a downgrade, and even a big downgrade from this is STILL going to lead to a noteable cold spell! Could threaten some daily temp records with that run!

[Johnp]

Extended JMA says to GFS - hold my beer.

 

[Chesil View]

Just now, bluearmy said:

I think it got so coñfused running reversed for so long that eventually the run has simply broken at T312

Just what i thought Blue The gfs couldnt cope with that amount of easterlyness.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

We've had a few cold westerlies the past few weeks, only fair to return the favor. 

Edited February 17, 2018 by SN0W SN0W SN0W

[Sweetdream]

The problem I see has already cropped up with the gfs on the 12z and on the 18z with the short wave. The ecm has already picked it up on it. So instead of bringing the easterly in early it will push it back. I think nick alluded to this either last night or today in one of his posts. 

[Daniel*]

GFS is a filthy run but I like it. 

if that’s not a classic in the making I don’t know what is... easterly gales drifting blow snow. It would go down as quite something what’s good is runs such as this but this goes extra mile is not ‘voiceless’. 

 

[Deep Snow please]

5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I think forget cold - we'd be digging through drifts at least half a metre deep....

Yup, lots of snow - although on my rather rudimentary reading not as much up north (in my back yard) the 06z - as well of course. It's an insane run - a pub run classic presumably, but fun to look at.

Edited February 17, 2018 by Deep Snow please