Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[The Eagle]

The cold pool is back building...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

This run is just like winding up a spring. It keeps winding, and winding, and winding....

....and the more it winds up the better the  cold it will unleash when it snaps.

Oh the irony....Spring?  What Spring.......season ? 

 

BFTP

[Rocheydub]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

Even with my expectations of SSW's and their trop responses, I never ever expected that the trop response could be this emphatic. Not saying that anything is nailed, but I will be happy with -10's touching us and see that as a good result. But honestly if this occurs I would be truly flabberghasted!

You called this over a month ago if I recall correctly. That's what's most impressive Ed!

[seabreeze86]

Serious cold crossing the north Sea. Convection galore heavy snow showers popping off all over the country. Best chart I've seen in years. It's all happens a little earlier on the 18z also.

[Met4Cast]

The cold pool is "weakening" but look to the North-East, the Arctic is sending reinforcements!

[metaltron]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

None of the other medium range model output has developed a deep low over the Ukraine like GFS does, such as the EC and GEM, just the usual Genoa low, so not sure I buy this low development from GFS. Anyway, the brutal cold gets to us in the end.

For once, it's Europe getting brutal cold and not the eastern U.S. who look to continue to torch.

It looks like the Genoa low got caught up in the easterly, which created that low.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

The cold pool is back building...

Most accurate run thus far....warming up nicely...

 

BFTP

[SLEETY]

Would this amount to ice days for uk and heavy snow showers on the E coast moving inland on strengthening frigid E winds ?

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Not quite but this will do at t192 

That is a bonkers chart. It's getting saved as synoptics like that aren't an everyday thing.

Even if that gets downgraded slightly it'll be amazing. -14 to -16 uppers sat across much ofthe UK with clear snow potential. It might be the GFS pub run but it's still plausible; which is the bonkers bit.

[Rocheydub]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Would this amount to ice days for uk and heavy snow showers on the E coast moving inland on strengthening frigid E winds ?

Yes, it would result in ice days especially over the snow fields, possibly for several days on the trot!

Edited February 17, 2018 by Rocheydub

[January Snowstorm]

At 204hrs it's just incredible with winds blowing from Siberia all the way across the Atlantic. 

Folks this looks major?

[Mike Poole]

To think I described the GFS 06z as oozing epicicity, there are no words to describe this one, not even made up ones!    Here at T216:

Edited February 17, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Would this amount to ice days for uk and heavy snow showers on the E coast moving inland on strengthening frigid E winds ?

Definitely ice days in areas with snowcover and perhaps even in areas without, it could lead to snow showers all over the place.

[WalsallWeather123]

Some eye candy at T216 on GFS

[Rocheydub]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

To think I described the GFS 06z as oozing epicicity, there are no words to describe this one, even made up ones!    Here at T216:

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you "THAT GFS"

 

In over 10 years of NWP viewing, I can't recall one as impressive. Remember, this can only downgrade, because you cannot beat perfection!

[kold weather]

Well that really is a great 18z GFS.It builds on from the 12z GFS and makes a more stable platform with the upper high being better angled and placed. Not massively different but makes a big difference for most of England compared to the 12z.

Also note the position of the upper low in the Atlantic and the way the high is transfering slowly westwards. Textbook cold spell set-up.

[SLEETY]

Major blizzard incoming ,the run that never stops giving 

[bobbydog]

Just now, LRD said:

And, as I said earlier, I reckon it'll be brought forward another 24 hours as we get closer to the event

there is scope for even sooner as well...

[markw2680]

8 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The cold pool is "weakening" but look to the North-East, the Arctic is sending reinforcements!

If that’s it weakening I don’t mind I’ll take it ?

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you "THAT GFS"

 

In over 10 years of NWP viewing, I can't recall one as impressive. Remember, this can only downgrade, because you cannot beat perfection!

I think there was one ECM op this week that was even better, and maybe a couple that had even deeper cold from years ago, but synoptically that is indeed about as good asit gets.

Note the cold air is still flowing round the upper high and has not yet been cut off by 240hrs!

[Day 10]

8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

None of the other medium range model output has developed a deep low over the Ukraine like GFS does, such as the EC and GEM, just the usual Genoa low, so not sure I buy this low development from GFS. Anyway, the brutal cold gets to us in the end.

For once, it's Europe getting brutal cold and not the eastern U.S. who look to continue to torch.

Good! Can just see it now Americans sitting at home searching for the live UK links to 'the beast from the east' as the UK gets pummeled by snow.

[ICE COLD]

Oh my god it just keeps on coming ?

[Chesil View]

Hints of retrogression at 231

[LRD]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=252&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Good grief. A couple of days off work or working from home I think

 

[Snowy L]

Here comes the retrogression to Greenland and PV lobe diving south...