Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[markw2680]

14 hours ago, meh said:

This is good agreement now between GEFS mean and ECM mean:

Slack, dry easterly seems to be being converged upon for the 6-10 day range.

What we need to remember is that not every run and every model will have it the same there will be some very good and some less so it’s just the way it is, even if it was within 48 hours there will still be variances. It’s all looking good people atm. It could end up a dry one or it could be a white one, those things won’t be painted out for ages yet. Just enjoy the countdown 

sorry not sure why it’s quoting you tbh lol

Edited February 17, 2018 by markw2680
Mistake

[ICE COLD]

Look at that cold pool ready to pounce ? . Excellent 

[Met4Cast]

Shortwaves need to go out and get girlfriends and stop messing up our charts!

Good positioning of the block, great Northern Hemispheric pattern in general, shortwave over Europe needs to do one, though.

[Froze were the Days]

Yet again that drasted trough building over eastern Europe at 144z, we don't need that to develop like the 12z did, this will make the easterly become slack.

[SLEETY]

Nothing stopping this Siberian train,don’t panic 

[ICE COLD]

It's getting very close and quite early in the run . 

[chionomaniac]

This run is just like winding up a spring. It keeps winding, and winding, and winding....

....and the more it winds up the better the  cold it will unleash when it snaps.

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Shortwaves need to go out and get girlfriends and stop messing up our charts!

Good positioning of the block, great Northern Hemispheric pattern in general, shortwave over Europe needs to do one, though.

How can I identify where a trough exists on the charts?

[Mike Poole]

No idea where this run goes from here, literally.

[Daniel*]

GFS is rather consistent with 12Z this is more of what we want to see consistency. 

[bluearmy]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

This run is just like winding up a spring. It keeps winding, and winding, and winding....

....and the more it winds up the better the  cold it will unleash when it snaps.

but will it head NW or w ?? 

Another test of my North Sea rule. mind you, it’s not like we haven’t seen a few short waves popping up already 

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

No idea where this run goes from here, literally.

There's only one way that's going... into the freezer

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

but will it head NW or w ?? 

Another test of my North Sea rule. mind you, it’s not like we haven’t seen a few short waves popping up already 

We shall find out soon enough. Great model watching.

[ICE COLD]

-16s incoming AGAIN ?

[Met4Cast]

-20's into the North Sea..

Bloomin eck.

[The Eagle]

Not a bad chart for 168 hours

[ALL ABOARD]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

We shall find out soon enough. Great model watching.

I think it went west 8-)

[January Snowstorm]

This is synoptic heaven!!

At 180hrs the freezer is on our doorstep 

Wow!!

[JeffC]

Apologies if this sounds a little naive...but if we end up with a cut off area of heights and PM influence hitting up against easterly continental air mass..would that be a snowfest or a cold, cold set up?

[Mike Poole]

Of course, mother of all easterlies, d'oh!

[Met4Cast]

I think the 18z is out on the stag with Steve and passed out under the table so Steve decided to give it a bit of a tweaking.. 

Probably the coldest, snowiest run yet. Absolute perfection. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

14 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Just look at this. You may as well put a brick wall up to the Atlantic. Perfect imo

The jet cannot cross this...

One of the best charts you will ever see at 5 days

Re-inforced concrete Ed!?  It is an utter insane chart.....and not outlandish either which is such a factor 

 

BFTP

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

-16s incoming AGAIN ?

Not quite but this will do at t192 

[Nick F]

None of the other medium range model output has developed a deep low over the Ukraine like GFS does, such as the EC and GEM, just the usual Genoa low, so not sure I buy this low development from GFS. Anyway, the brutal cold gets to us in the end.

For once, it's Europe getting brutal cold and not the eastern U.S. who look to continue to torch.

Edited February 17, 2018 by Nick F

[chionomaniac]

Even with my expectations of SSW's and their trop responses, I never ever expected that the trop response could be this emphatic. Not saying that anything is nailed, but I will be happy with -10's touching us and see that as a good result. But honestly if this occurs I would be truly flabberghasted!