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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Plenty of options by just 120 in GFS ensembles

gensnh-4-1-120.pnggensnh-10-1-120.pnggensnh-7-1-120.pnggensnh-19-1-120.png

So still room for upgrades, downgrades - and sidegrades? 

 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I find it to be an odd observation to make when it’s the first I’ve seen which has pushed deep cold to north? And it’s a day 10 there is very little point in doing so. Overall broad pattern across the board is encouraging! 

Agreed!

UKMO back on board, good support for heights to our North on all model runs and their respective ensemble suites. Broad pattern and model consensus now is for heights to our North with some sort of Easterly flow. Depth of cold/snow still a long outside the forecasting range but overall, looking good moving forward.

Odds on for an Easterly I'd put at 90%. Odds for a bitterly cold/snowy Easterly probably 45% given recent trending towards a more dryer setup.

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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
Posted
43 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

This GFS precipitation chart at T252 emphasises the North South divide in temps as made above.

image.png

Precipitation charts at T252. 

All together now.. 

That wont verify ?

 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
Just now, stewfox said:

Precipitation charts at T252. 

All together now.. 

That wont verify ?

 

Given how this winter has been so far for us down South, that GFS chart probably will verify exactly as shown.

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Does any gfs chart ever verify ,it didn’t even want to know about an Easterly two days ago ,nevermind charts over 7 days away :gathering:

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

Go look at the ENS 

Start at 192......some beauties in there .....quite a few in fact 

 

obviously I could only look at 192 , 198, 204 and 210 but enough to show me what the consensus is

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted
18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I suppose the irony of this situation is actually the depth of cold!

The intense cold could develop a shortwave , the track might be important here so funneling just south of the Baltic and being advected west.

As long as you get a strong block in the right position it should get that deeper cold west even with a shortwave.

Very true...12z GFS 'blows' up a trough from SE Europe into a deepening low which basically cuts off the strong easterly flow as per 6z, something to watch maybe on the 18z...

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

UKMO joins the party but leaves the presents in Europe like the GFS. The cool down now beginning to enter the reliable time frame. However the real cold air still at long way out in the GFS. ECM will it be more progressive or move away from the idea. Eyes down soon.

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

Ens 216 hrs

1, 3 , 5 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 13 , 15 , 16 , 17 

18 , 19 and 20 have it arriving 24hrs or so later 

Have the U.K. in good cold some of the above are crackers 

Much to be happy about 

 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Very true...12z GFS 'blows' up a trough from SE Europe into a deepening low which basically cuts off the strong easterly flow as per 6z, something to watch maybe on the 18z...

Yes a weak shortwave is okay , we don’t want to see anything deeper.

It’s an unusual scenario because we don’t often see that level of cold modelled over Europe.

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Just before another crucial Ecm run starts...here are some goodies from the GEFS 12z!:D:cold-emoji:

1_228_850tmp.png

3_228_850tmp.png

14_216_850tmp.png

15_216_850tmp.png

16_192_850tmp.png

17_216_850tmp.png

20_222_850tmp.png

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Devonshire Enthusiast

Devonshire

Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
Posted
19 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Bearing in mind that the Meto further outlook has been and remains rock solid on the incoming cold and the idea of it lasting into March when most of the too many other models posters have been fannying around in a blind panic at times.

There - fixed that :)

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

Well I've just heard the beast is on her way, so i've told her not to rush home from shopping as i'm awaiting the ECM. 

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, The PIT said:

UKMO joins the party but leaves the presents in Europe like the GFS. The cool down now beginning to enter the reliable time frame. However the real cold air still at long way out in the GFS. ECM will it be more progressive or move away from the idea. Eyes down soon.

What do you expect at that range it’s unrealistic. UKMO only goes out to day 6 I’d say the really deep cold is at least 8 days away I like the look of UKMO a lot it’s changed its tune hugely from yesterday.

A401AC25-47D3-4ADC-B25F-407EA5B9FBF9.thumb.gif.a802421fe9770bb27ba28374513c0f59.gif

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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

I just randomly picked a number (honest) and looked at that ensemble member from 216

This is what I want to see please.......

IMG_1096.PNG

IMG_1097.PNG

IMG_1098.PNG

IMG_1099.PNG

IMG_1088.PNG

IMG_1089.PNG

IMG_1090.PNG

IMG_1091.PNG

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

I just randomly picked a number (honest) and looked at that ensemble member from 216

This is what I want to see please.......

IMG_1096.PNG

IMG_1097.PNG

IMG_1098.PNG

IMG_1099.PNG

IMG_1088.PNG

IMG_1089.PNG

IMG_1090.PNG

IMG_1091.PNG

That is one of the best runs I’ve seen, UK would be having serious transport problems with that!! 

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Pembroke Dangler Aficionado

Pembroke Dangler

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Posted
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

What do you expect at that range it’s unrealistic. UKMO only goes out to day 6 I’d say the really deep cold is at least 8 days away I like the look of UKMO a lot it’s changed its tune hugely from yesterday.

A401AC25-47D3-4ADC-B25F-407EA5B9FBF9.thumb.gif.a802421fe9770bb27ba28374513c0f59.gif

That shortwave circled red on ukmo needs to drop south and join the lower heights over Italy to help advect the colder air to the east of it to Blighty and with it a trough of heavy snow showers. That’s where I think it will go anyway. 

F1A3B67F-4C2F-4599-9DD5-D925BD7C5523.jpeg

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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Just a quick question. The purple 850 temps that march towards us on the big easterly runs, seem to very rarely make it over the North Sea. Do they get moderated over the water?

Seen massive blobs of them stop short of the uk

On the following images it seems we will be covered by the huge purple mass but it doesn't make it

IMG_1088.PNG

IMG_1089.PNG

IMG_1090.PNG

IMG_1091.PNG

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