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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yep southerlies coming into England by 240hrs...high is TOO FAR NORTH on this run, needs to be centered a little more to the SE ideally. Could see another shot down the line from it mind you. 

Great run, but compared to the set-ups potential, only a 5/10 for me (yes, that is how great the potential is!!)

Snow-rain event for a decent part of thecountry, any accumulations will melt quickly though if that came off. 

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
33 minutes ago, Johnp said:

It still amazes me that so many seemingly clever people don’t realise that not every run is going to be identical to the last and that each run will likely be within a broad envelope of options.

The trend is our friend and that it is to bring in an initial easterly followed by an even colder flow a few days later.  The models are just working out how to arrange the pieces of the jigsaw.

Agree so many ups and downs when scrutinising and looking at differences at 144 . Get the winds from the East first , even trying to forecast snow 24hours out is hard let along 6 , 7 or 8 days away

Edited by Banbury
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yep back to an Atlantic driven set-up by 276hrs with all the cold air gone away from Europe. Not the best run to be honest, despite an interesting 120-168hrs period. HOPE the upper high going that far north does not become a trend because this may be a short lived cold snap otherwise, just as the 12z shows.

This has got the potential to be a *record breaking* spell if it all lines up. The 12z GFS shows what happens when the upper high drifts too far north. Very little snow for southern area this run, good falls for the north and some huge falls for Scotland.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

It might seem like wishful thinking but I think it's more to do with 13 years of model watching experience, but there's no way that the HP is going to be that far north. I would suspect that the GFS will be a significant mild outlier towards the back end of the run.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

You can see where the GFS 12z goes wrong for the latter part of the run and it all hinges (on this run) on the low pressure/trough deepening over eastern Europe which in turn develops northwards into the high pressure and leaves the UK in a slacker easterly, so something to keep an eye on. Up to 144z or so looks fairly consistent so that's okay.

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep back to an Atlantic driven set-up by 276hrs with all the cold air gone away from Europe. Not the best run to be honest, despite an interesting 120-168hrs period. HOPE the upper high going that far north does not become a trend because this may be a short lived cold snap otherwise, just as the 12z shows.

This has got the potential to be a *record breaking* spell if it all lines up. The 12z GFS shows what happens when the upper high drifts too far north.

We've wanted a high to our north all winter, now knowing our luck it'll get too far north ?

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep back to an Atlantic driven set-up by 276hrs with all the cold air gone away from Europe. Not the best run to be honest, despite an interesting 120-168hrs period. HOPE the upper high going that far north does not become a trend because this may be a short lived cold snap otherwise, just as the 12z shows.

This has got the potential to be a *record breaking* spell if it all lines up. The 12z GFS shows what happens when the upper high drifts too far north. Very little snow for southern area this run, good falls for the north and some huge falls for Scotland.

Yep it was never gonna beat the epic run from the 6z this morning . It does go to far north in FI but do we trust the GFS after its last week off output . I definitely wouldn't bet on it ?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

You can see where the GFS 12z goes wrong for the latter part of the run and it all hinges (on this run) on the low pressure/trough deepening over eastern Europe which in turn develops northwards into the high pressure and leaves the UK in a slacker easterly, so something to keep an eye on. Up to 144z or so looks fairly consistent so that's okay.

The biggest problem is the core of the upper high develops way too far north, leaves the UK in the lower pressure area to the south of the upper high, allowing a slack flow which isn't really doing as good as job at bringing in cold air. It also leaves us REALLY exposed to any uptick in the Atlantic, which is what happens on the 12z.

As I said, normally I'd be perfectly happy with the 12z run, wouldn't take much of a shift to bring in a mega snow spell between 216-264hrs. This time though, the options are so extreme that frankly if we got the 12z, I'd be underwhelmed.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep back to an Atlantic driven set-up by 276hrs with all the cold air gone away from Europe. Not the best run to be honest, despite an interesting 120-168hrs period. HOPE the upper high going that far north does not become a trend because this may be a short lived cold snap otherwise, just as the 12z shows.

This has got the potential to be a *record breaking* spell if it all lines up. The 12z GFS shows what happens when the upper high drifts too far north.

The models just don't know where the heights will stay.

But easterly of sorts is still there we will know for sure by tomorrow evening.

As for heights going to far north unlikely given the vortex is draining over the Arctic trying to regroup somewhere else split energy more likely feeding through Siberia the curving round from the east.

Wouldn't mind a northeasterly that would make inroads quicker.

But easterly looks most likely upper air temps will fluctuate alot until closer to the time could be slower or could be quicker and possible undercut from the Atlantic.

It's not curtains far from it.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Interestingly the 12z GEM has the other issue and the upper high never moves quite far enough away from us. It means the cold air doesn't really funnel westwards enough. I suspect 12z GEM past 240hrs is heading for a Greenland high which will drag in some decently cold air. Would be a shame to miss out on that -15C air though to our east. I think the 12z GEM is probably a more realistic set-up, the 12z GFS op looks too progressive in how fast that upper high migrates right into the pole.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Not sure it’s  worth worrying about gfs having  the high too far north - it didn’t have it at all pre day 7/8 until this’morning! 

May as well wait for the whole set of 12’s before analysis 

a reversion of ecm to yesterday’s 12z suite would drive quite a different mindset to where I am now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not sure it’s  worth worrying about gfs having  the high too far north - it didn’t have it at all pre day 7/8 until this’morning! 

May as well wait for the whole set of 12’s before analysis 

a reversion of ecm to yesterday’s 12z suite would drive quite a different mindset to where I am now. 

Nope your quite right, I'm just highlighting a few possible pitfalls. Certainly much bigger possiblity is the cold air doesn't get far enough west due to the high not getting too far enough to be fair. But at least with that set-up it opens up the chances of a Greenland high showing its face. I think that is quite probable past day 12.

Steve, in fairness if the upper high sits near the UK then that cold air will stay shunted in Europe and we will just buff the edges. That has got historical precedence. As you say at least the building blocks are there.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

No point really commenting on the individual runs, but more to stress that the intense cold to our east is going to be another difficullty in terms of model output. You would think the current background signals are difficult enough.

Personally i think we will get hit at some point in the next two weeks, but timing is going to be difficult to pin down and obviously the longevity of any cold spell that does arrive.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yep Nick ,getting good agreement now from the models around 120hrs for a weak flow from Europe starting, probably nothing too cold to start with but obviously the longer we hold it the better the chances of getting the 'prize' that we all should aim for, a top 10 coldest easterly shot of the last 100 years...

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Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen

Oh dear the gfs 12z run fails to deliver the goods if you want cold and snow for the UK however it is only 1 run and all eyes will be on the ECM as it rolls out 

Edited by Mr snowman 2018
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, kold weather said:

Yep Nick ,getting good agreement now from the models around 120hrs for a weak flow from Europe starting, probably nothing too cold to start with but obviously the longer we hold it the better the chances of getting the 'prize' that we all should aim for, a top 10 coldest easterly shot of the last 100 years...

I suppose the irony of this situation is actually the depth of cold!

The intense cold could develop a shortwave , the track might be important here so funneling just south of the Baltic and being advected west.

As long as you get a strong block in the right position it should get that deeper cold west even with a shortwave.

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Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen

Also the gfs 12z nothing of any significance in the south but as I said it's only 1 run and I hope it's a massive outlier and the ECM delivers the goods 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
41 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

This GFS precipitation chart at T252 emphasises the North South divide in temps as made above.

image.png

I find it to be an odd observation to make when it’s the first I’ve seen which has pushed deep cold to north? And it’s a day 10 there is very little point in doing so. Overall broad pattern across the board is encouraging! 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
2 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Also the gfs 12z nothing of any significance in the south but as I said it's only 1 run and I hope it's a massive outlier and the ECM delivers the goods 

Bearing in mind that the Meto further outlook has been and remains rock solid on the incoming cold and the idea of it lasting into March when most of the other models have been fannying around in a blind panic at times. I think we can pretty much bin the further reaches of the gfs12z

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