Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[WalsallWeather123]

GFS 12z bringing in colder air much quicker vs 6z

[Paul]

Just now, Johnp said:

It still amazes me that so many seemingly clever people don’t realise that not every run is going to be identical to the last and that each run will likely be within a broad envelope of options.

The trend is our friend and that it is to bring in an initial easterly followed by an even colder flow a few days later.  The models are just working out how to arrange the pieces of the jigsaw.

People are commenting on the run, not sure I see the issue with that - it's not like anyone is jumping overboard in their reactions to it..

[Yarmy]

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

GFS up to 132 hours here

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs

The beast is coming..

These short ramping posts ought to be removed.

Wetterzentrale also updating while Sylvain puts the money in the meter, here's T153. 

 

 

 

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

People are commenting on the run, not sure I see the issue with that - it's not like anyone is jumping overboard in their reactions to it..

Not necessarily the last few minutes, more the last couple of days?

I see I’ve managed to get the confused emoji from my troll again too!

Edited February 17, 2018 by Johnp
.

[reef]

The 12z GFS run shows how annoying little shortwaves forming can delay the cold moving west. It'll probably still be alright eventually on this run, but that little feature off Norway delays things 24-36 hours.

Edited February 17, 2018 by reef

[ICE COLD]

T168 GFS 

[Mucka]

We could do with better undercut earlier to prevent the Euro ridge funnelling our cold SouthWest and delaying the real eye candy.

[Met4Cast]

UKMO still on board

Good 12z so far, if we can get the ECM on board this evening then for the first time in over a week we could have something resembling model consensus..

[Weathizard]

The beast is incoming at day 7, I repeat the beast IS approaching! Once that high gets cut off and propped up by low pressure in Southern Europe it's a waiting game for fun to begin.

unless we get a south easterly sourced from Greece, that would be just typical ? 

 

[Deep Snow please]

So this GFS run firmly puts us in good territory, bringing in the colder air by Day 7 - I'm quite happy with that compared to the constant Day 10 we've had for ages, so just need to wait on the back end to see if it's prolonged.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

knowing our luck the earthquake will disprupt the SSW - lol

So Just looking at the GFS & My fav the IKON again - I have NEVER seen an easterly better than this- Its better than 1987-

Obviouly theres a chance it will happen but equally still more chance that it would be watered down- but for arguments sake *IF* it did land then your talking masses of snowfall for England - If I remember southend had about 60-70 cm of snow - & I think realistically thats the ballpark we would be talking about- But theres so many buts - les just hope we get something close...

1987 V the IKON - we can see the uppers are colder in 1987 but the IKON has lower heights ( the 500 Hpa temp is -42c !!! )

Please let stay like this !!! 7 days !!

 

 

Kept whole post as relevant.

Here is 1987 as regards to my current backyard....info courtesy of Trevor Harley @Britweather.

Here are the noon temperatures from Gatwick from the 7th to the 20th: 0, -2, 1, -1, -5, -7, -7, -3, -2, -1, -3, -3, -3, -1. There was severe frost damage to plants on the Isles of Scilly. 

I just viewed the 06z GFS......Well just dumbfounded.

Steve, we saw 1987 event as Easterly perfection.....I have to say we are seeing some serious charts  considering 1987 was Peak Winter!?

Love the Earthquake spoiler quip....

BFTP

 

[chionomaniac]

What an amazing amount of cold right across Eurasia from Pacific to (almost) Atlantic coasts. Just shows how when the engine is turned off how the cold spreads southwards. Impressive.

 

[ICE COLD]

GFS t192 it's taking its time ?

[kold weather]

Great run again,the upper high may even be a little too far north to sustain a really long cold spell but we will see. Also flow is quite flabby, easterly may get cut off by developing shortwaves in the flow *in itself though that provides oppertunities.*

[supernova]

GFS brings the cold in slightly earlier on the 12z compared to its earlier run. Looking good in a week’s time. 

 

[Mucka]

Blob of snow destined for the UK, the first of many?

[ICE COLD]

Very very cold air incoming ?

[Eastnorthwest]

7 minutes ago, Paul said:

GFS up to 132 hours here

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs

The beast is coming..

Looking good isn't it, best looking charts of the winter, as I said earlier we need the Ao and N a o to slide to negativity in the coming days and we will all be a lot happier

[kold weather]

Coldest upper air is to the north this run over N.England/Scotland as the upper high is located further north.Could see an attack from the SW on this run. Not as snowy inland this run IMO due to a much weaker flow, but still plenty cold enough for it.

[ICE COLD]

No we are headed for Greenland ??

[reef]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Coldest upper air is to the north this run over N.England/Scotland as the upper high is located further north.Could see an attack from the SW on this run. Not as snowy inland this run IMO due to a much weaker flow, but still plenty cold enough for it.

Yes, this is a pretty dry and cold run for most in England, with Scotland being the focus of the intense cold and heavy snow.

Still, at T+200 its just good to get cold air coming in, details will come later.

[kold weather]

Just now, reef said:

Yes, this is a pretty dry and cold run for most in England, with Scotland being the focus of the intense cold and heavy snow.

Still, at T+200 its just good to get cold air coming in, details will come later.

I suspect we will see a big snow attempt from the SW, though the upper high is a little too far north for my linking on this run, especially given the near perfect synoptics aloft, weshould aim for perfection here. Its still amazing in its own right.

[MattStoke]

Variation on a theme is a good way to sum up this run.

Doesn't appear to match the wording of the UKMO forecasts but the main things is that it once again shows a potent easterly affecting the UK. It's the detail of longetivity and depth of cold and location of greatest snow risk that are the biggest uncertainties now. As you would expect at this range.

Edited February 17, 2018 by MattStoke

[Summer Sun]

GEM isn't all that cold for the next 9 days or so any significant cold air is out in la la land

[radiohead]

Dramatic upper air temperature difference between north and south