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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This GFS 6z run just oozes epicicity!  Here's the T288 chart

gfs-0-288.png?6

And the uppers - wow!

gfs-1-288.png?6

First day of Spring, anyone?

T288 though, still quite a way out in FI. Best to try and keep one foot on the ground. Though the trend is pretty encouraging, if you’re a coldie :)

Edited by stainesbloke
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl

GFS looking crazy at Day 10+.  Just for the avoidance of doubt these are MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE charts. Widespread  -3s and -4s. The run also shows this being accompanies by nationwide snowfall. 

 

Netweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

We need to remember this was the gfs 06z. It has basically overtaken the 18z pub run for outlandish, zany runs. As I said earlier, we need a better suite from the ecm tonight. If the ecm had carried on from it's fantastic suites of yesterday, I would have been confident of a very cold snowy spell of weather. However, it did not carry on the momentum with it's 00z suite and hence we have taken a step back this morning imo. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We need to remember this was the gfs 06z. It has basically overtaken the 18z pub run for outlandish, zany runs. As I said earlier, we need a better suite from the ecm tonight. If the ecm had carried on from it's fantastic suites of yesterday, I would have been confident of a very cold snowy spell of weather. However, it did not carry on the momentum with it's 00z suite and hence we have taken a step back this morning imo. 

Ukmo coming on board is a step forward imo 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Unless someone tells me that the gfs 06z suite models the arctic high better than the gfs 00z then I am going to remain sceptical with the 06z set. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Ukmo coming on board is a step forward imo 

The trouble I have with the ukmo is that it's 6 day charts are incredibly variable from run to run. It is a slight improvement this morning but this could easily change back tonight. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Tasty 06z ensembles, few are quite as severe as the 06z op run but most give us at least impressive surface cold and most do develop an Iceland/Greenland high at some point. A fair few pull a 00z ECM with the upper high never quite getting far enough north, but most of those open the floodgates from the NE in the end.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
25 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The trouble I have with the ukmo is that it's 6 day charts are incredibly variable from run to run. It is a slight improvement this morning but this could easily change back tonight. 

 

28 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Unless someone tells me that the gfs 06z suite models the arctic high better than the gfs 00z then I am going to remain sceptical with the 06z set. 

 

35 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We need to remember this was the gfs 06z. It has basically overtaken the 18z pub run for outlandish, zany runs. As I said earlier, we need a better suite from the ecm tonight. If the ecm had carried on from it's fantastic suites of yesterday, I would have been confident of a very cold snowy spell of weather. However, it did not carry on the momentum with it's 00z suite and hence we have taken a step back this morning imo. 

 

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Gfs 06z aside, which I never have much faith in, we must see tonight's ecm upgrade from it's morning run if it's an easterly of the convective, impactual type you prefer. 

 

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

I will agree with you on one thing. The ecm including it's ens has been very volatile for the last week. 

Ok, Ok, I think we get it, the models have been very volatile, this is just one of many, many different solutions etc etc! It would probably have sufficed to just post: more runs needed! :D

 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

would love to see how this evolved from here-

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.074c8e8ae50dd106f5acb70f535f6cfc.png

i've never seen a wnter chart like that before and its in spring!

(must be global warming :whistling:)

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
11 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:

Doesn't appear to be anything of interest on the way for coldies when looking at 18z GEFS ensembles for North Yorkshire.

graphe3_1000_285_1___.gif

 

graphe3_1000_290_4___.gif

Trending downwards temperature wise since my post 12 hours ago regarding the 18z ensembles for North Yorkshire.

Lets hope the 12z follows suit.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS 06z mean doesn't drop below -5 throughout 

graphe_ens3_opn2.thumb.gif.8027a2ddfe8f14667627cfa46a3be7db.gif

 

Well eîther the cold runs are right or the mild one side are! One od those occasions where’s the mean isn’t much use. 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

I think its fair to say that the Beast from the East is about to be unleashed !  The chances of a severe wintery spell seem quite significant too. And remember that it is certainly not too late for such a spell of cold, you only have to look back to 2013 as proof of that ! 

Edited by JBMWeatherForever
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, vizzy2004 said:

graphe3_1000_290_4___.gif

Trending downwards temperature wise since my post 12 hours ago regarding the 18z ensembles for North Yorkshire.

Lets hope the 12z follows suit.

You’d like to think the Op and Control now have a semi grasp on the situation with the ENS to folllow - so yes I expect/hope the mean starts dropping way below -5c soon for next Weekend onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

ECM ens 

C2C94867-5B7E-47E7-872F-1F6AADE5DC17.thumb.gif.743c9a57fa1a692494167d343b5da208.gif

Pretty good agreement for a colder spell from around the 21st and then spread becomes more evident from the 25th ish! Not a bad set in the mid term it has to be said!

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Just now, Buzz said:

In your opinion, how has the ECM 'gone bad'? Can you give us some details please? I ask because, generally speaking, people appear to be happy with the latest runs from the models.

Its a mid-lattitude block bringing mild air. Dont take my post too seriously though its just an observation that in the last 2 weeks one model picks up a good signal for cold then as soon as the other model picks it up the original model drops it. I dont think I have seen both the ECM and GFS show a good block with cold over the UK at the same time.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS 06z mean doesn't drop below -5 throughout 

graphe_ens3_opn2.thumb.gif.8027a2ddfe8f14667627cfa46a3be7db.gif

 

Thats one of those meaningless statistics though and if anything uppers of -2 to -3 are the least likely scenario despite the mean going for that. There i quite a clear split in the ensembles. We are either going full blown cold or full blown mild.

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

would love to see how this evolved from here-

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.074c8e8ae50dd106f5acb70f535f6cfc.png

i've never seen a wnter chart like that before and its in spring!

(must be global warming :whistling:)

We all as weather enthusiasts now that with a background factor the season can be irrelevant. The fact we get heatwaves in March some years makes that abundantly clear. So there's no real reason with the right set up we can get a deep freeze in March either. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Lets quickly remind ourselves!

The ens-not to recently' were the lead in terms of cold notability-while the op-was missing and waining.

Now we have mirror opposite, with op-leading evolutions for cold.

Its cat and mouse in such situ and is to be expected given the diabolics of decipher...

Its a circular motion in compare...and both should now start aligning as one cross suite....absolutley no panic alarms at all!!!..

On we move.

The cold is coming!!!!

MT8_London_ens (2).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Lets quickly remind ourselves!

The ens-not to recently' were the lead in terms of cold notability-while the op-was missing and waining.

The cold is coming!!!!

MT8_London_ens (2).png

We know that , we’ve had a massive SSW. The question remains - whether it gets here ??????

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