Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[winterof79]

A direct Easterly incoming and I do not think it will be dry. For the newbies note the wind does not follow the isobars.

[karlos1983]

If we get to this point it will be futile trying to make an argument for a mild outcome!

i remain grounded for now, but quietly optimistic ? 

[SLEETY]

Gfs has stopped lol just as bitter air is almost upon us.

[snowice]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Incoming freeze up comingbelow -20 hpa approaching 

Yes but I think  the cold will come quicker in  later runs! Gfs not as good as the Euros in this setup. 

[ICE COLD]

Another mental day incoming and with that another mental run coming ?

[Stozzy]

Hopefully we are starting too see the models get to grips with the pattern now . Very cold easterly coming on the gfs 6z 

[ICE COLD]

-15s in WOW 

[tight isobar]

Evolution is complex..

But final evolve is easy on the eye.

Nice height format-and a very clean easterly flow....nice 1 gfs.6z..

 

[ICE COLD]

Make that -16s in BIG WOW 

[Singularity]

They sheer strength of the high pressure circulation makes arrival of the deep cold a good bet for within the 7-12 day period.

Whether its sooner or later in that range depends on how the disturbances develop and line up on the S flank of the high.

00z ECM and EPS voted strongly for as little help as possible so the slower end of the range. At the other end of the extremes were GEM - but with the high also moving unrealistically quickly out of Siberia so questionable method there - and ICON.

ICON being the best of all the 00z operational runs for alignment of flow. The 06z GFS has trended toward it which is encouraging but of course with charts near a week ahead, it takes continuity of such an adjustment over several runs before  it means a lot.

[SLEETY]

Record breaking low 850 hpa for late feb?  if it verifies

[blizzard81]

Gfs 06z aside, which I never have much faith in, we must see tonight's ecm upgrade from it's morning run if it's an easterly of the convective, impactual type you prefer. 

[ICE COLD]

-17 850s within touching distance OMG ? 

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Make that -16s in BIG WOW 

I don't think the OP will be at the bottom end of its ensembles later as it drags them downward

Edited February 17, 2018 by winterof79

[SLEETY]

Would their be late effect snow on the SE coasts with such low 850 hpa?

[Polar Maritime]

Yes v cold by day 8/9.

[bluearmy]

Going back to the shortwave over s russia which on this run doesn’t form so early and therefore allows the cold pool to head west without hinderance, I would say that experience tells us not to dismiss this type of shortwave. now look at the day 8/9 charts and imagine what would be happening with the Azores low if that cold pool hadn’t advected so far west .... I suspect heights rising somewhat to our ssw. hence my comments earlier about the gem/icon quicker route being so much the better solution 

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 minute ago, Stozzy said:

Hopefully we are starting too see the models get to grips with the pattern now . Very cold easterly coming on the gfs 6z 

Whitby a great place to be if these charts come to fruition!

Strong Neg NAO forming on the 6z with lows in the Atlantic being forced down to the Azores and an area of high pressure moving out of NE Canada to becoming friends with the retrogressing Scandi High.

With the models all trending towards a retrogression signal we would be very unlucky not to tap into some cold air during the process.

[Mucka]

Not often you see an Atlantic low travelling East to West.

I think it would probably be more likely to disrupt under the block in such a scenario, tightening and strengthening the Easterly flow, it's all good.

[SLEETY]

Extreme condition I would imagine for many parts of the UK ,if it all verifies at that range

[Banbury]

For once GFS be right, very cold air across us 

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by Banbury

[Mucka]

Chilly for sure

[SMU]

dayime max for monday

Interesting run

probs -3/-4 in the hesvy snow!!

[SMU]

& lol @ 252

total wipeout!

Edited February 17, 2018 by Steve Murr

[chionomaniac]

I think what you are seeing modelled is the perfect block. No other output will be as good as this! I'm reminded off the great late Ian McCaskill's famous forecast - Incredible run!