Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[January Snowstorm]

The positive this morning is all models agree on some form of blocking with a majority ending up in an Easterly flow by late next week. Most also go with deep cold in FI

The negative this morning is ELM in particular has moved away from its dream charts of last night and finds a slower route to cold

Our main problem of course is the clock is moving into extra time for this Winter so we need things to happen quickly 

[Radiating Dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I'm content, but I think it's deluding yourself if you don't see the ECM as a downgrade from yesterday, it's much slower and we still don't end up with anything particularly noteworthy snow chances wise at 240.

Overall I'm quite happy the GFS and UKM have made moves but the ECM has also moved, for the worse.

Yes, but anything after that 12z was going to be a downgrade. It was the best ECM in my 10 years on here. 

[Banbury]

7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I'm content, but I think it's deluding yourself if you don't see the ECM as a downgrade from yesterday, it's much slower and we still don't end up with anything particularly noteworthy snow chances wise at 240.

Overall I'm quite happy the GFS and UKM have made moves but the ECM has also moved, for the worse.

Read my earlier post 

you can’t expect every run to be a snowfest with -20’s from 144 ( not that you have ) .....you will get upgrades and downgrades in this set up but this mornings runs are all good 

Edited February 17, 2018 by Banbury

[Banbury]

6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The positive this morning is all models agree on some form of blocking with a majority ending up in an Easterly flow by late next week. Most also go with deep cold in FI

The negative this morning is ELM in particular has moved away from its dream charts of last night and finds a slower route to cold

Our main problem of course is the clock is moving into extra time for this Winter so we need things to happen quickly 

With the cold air to East that some models have shown the date on the calendar is irrelevant it would be bitter and as we know March can be cold and Snowy Easter’s aren’t that rare . Still all good and ties in with the Met saying potentially very cold 

Edited February 17, 2018 by Banbury

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, but anything after that 12z was going to be a downgrade. It was the best ECM in my 10 years on here. 

After years on this forum I've noted one thing above all others when it comes to uk cold, anything that can go wrong pretty much always WILL go wrong.

Even this easterly, it's always just tantilisingly out of reach when up pops a misbehaving shortwave at t96 that scuppers any progression northwards of the high, at least the high doesn't look like sinking due to the pressure drop over Southern Europe.

We desperately need that Greenland vortex to weaken IMO, as the shortwave activity and energy it's spewing about makes it difficult for the high to migrate north, I struggle to believe the ECM as despite all the warmings it barely weakens throughout the entire run until it starts migrating at 240

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

With the cold air to East that some models have shown the date on the calendar is irrelevant it would be bitter and as we know March can be cold and Snowy Easter’s aren’t that rare . Still all good and ties in with the Met saying potentially very cold 

Can't agree more . The ECM is one op run , we new in wouldn't be as good as last nights , that was pretty much the best run ever . As always look at the ens ?

[Ali1977]

Not sure why people are saying ECM isn’t a downgrade, yes it may be wrong , yes it could be a warm outlier, yes it still would bring cold eventually (FI though) but quite simply it’s a Downgrade on the last run and suite. GFS delays the cold but is still good, GEM is great as is UKMO.....still some way to go to guarantee this very cold weather folks. PV looks angry which is a little worrying 

[That ECM]

only a couple of days ago people were worried that only one of the big 3 were going for an easterly. Now people are worried about how quick it will appear. All 3 agree on early set up, its from t120 where we see differences. We know t120 plus is JFF. It was last night with the amazing ecm output and it is this morning with the not so good run. 

Edited February 17, 2018 by That ECM

[Man With Beard]

I sense we're close to having one chapter concluded now - the Scandi high looks set to verify on all outputs between D6-D10. That ensemble mean that we've been tracking (apart from a short GEFS wobble) looks like being proven right!!

Chapter 2 is "cold easterly or mild easterly"? We see a giant split this morning between a massive cold pool and a benign coolish area over Europe from D6 onwards. Only a few hundred miles might separate the two. I actually think all outputs this morning are possible, from the GEM to the GFS to the ECM. We may need a couple more days to sort this out. 

I'mback to about 50/50 on proper cold reaching us within 10 days and 70/30 on it reaching us within 15 days.

[Radiating Dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not sure why people are saying ECM isn’t a downgrade, yes it may be wrong , yes it could be a warm outlier, yes it still would bring cold eventually (FI though) but quite simply it’s a Downgrade on the last run and suite. GFS delays the cold but is still good, GEM is great as is UKMO.....still some way to go to guarantee this very cold weather folks. PV looks angry which is a little worrying 

Nobody is saying it isn't a downgrade..... more the fact it was never going to upgrade on last night given how good the 12z was. 

 

[Gustywind]

My simple and greedy view is that after 8 years of winter snowlesness (compared to the good old days pre 1992) featuring constant mildness, a record warm December, flooding, storms, that ECM run and other famous cold downgrades, we deserve a 5 star cold spell, up there with the historic best like Feb 47.

Second class watered down winter cold won’t suffice and isn’t good enough! Nor will cold in March, as that’s spring not winter so doesn’t count!

 

[Chesil View]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Nobody is saying it isn't a downgrade..... more the fact it was never going to upgrade on last night given how good the 12z was. 

 

quite so thats always the problem when you get pretty much a notionally perfect run with all the real action at 120/144 and beyond. The only real perfect run is one where the real action is at T24

Edited February 17, 2018 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Sky Full]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

only a couple of days ago people were worried that only one of the big 3 were going for an easterly. Now people are worried about how quick it will appear. All 3 agree on early set up, its fron t120 where we see differences. We know t120 plus is JFF. It was last night with the amazing ecm output and it is this morning with the not so good run. 

Quite right!  And I can't help thinking that the models may not be capable of handling the very unusual atmospheric conditions which have occurred recently.  The models will always trend towards the average, and the further out they are asked to look, the further from extreme conditions they will try to get - therefore I think the models could be under-cooking the conditions we might get in the next two weeks.  There is no point getting too excited or despondent over each daily run - we will only know how what we can expect after the 23rd.   (Only IMO, obviously.  )

[london-snow]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'mback to about 50/50 on proper cold reaching us within 10 days and 70/30 on it reaching us within 15 days.

No good to us we all want D6+.

D10-D15 will cause nothing but headaches and probably yet again cursed luck..

The fact that the meto and other pro services are calling for the cold easterlies to arrive by D5-D7 is comforting to me atm,

[Ali1977]

ECM ens not as good neither, pressure starts rising in Europe from day 6 and we end up with a less cold SE’ly mean!! 

We need to keep some low pressure over Spain to get that strong Easterly flow which helps convection etc...

Day 10 mean, the heights coming into Southern Spain, would be nice if that’s gone on the next run although as far as a mean goes from the last few years this is still pretty good I guess!!

Edited February 17, 2018 by Ali1977

[Snowjokes92]

If all models went up to 120 hours, pretty sure there would not be half as many tauntrums on here! The place would probably be in meltdown. The output after day 5/6 has been so inconsistent in general terms across board. The ICON actually probably most consistent surprisingly

Edited February 17, 2018 by Snowjokes92
Spelling

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM ens not as good neither, pressure starts rising in Europe from day 6 and we end up with a less cold SE’ly mean!! 

We need to keep some low pressure over Spain to get that strong Easterly flow which helps convection etc...

The reason pressure rises in Europe or at least part of it though is because there's not the injection of deep polar air into Europe, if the air is deeply cold, the low pressure will remain in an unstable air mass so it's one big knock on effect starting very early in the run.

[Tracy Flick]

This is good agreement now between GEFS mean and ECM mean:

Slack, dry easterly seems to be being converged upon for the 6-10 day range.

[SLEETY]

The ecm  op run was one of the more milder solutions, after day 5 lots  more colder runs in the set,some are 13c colder after day 5!,More runs needed as usual

[Snowjokes92]

Just now, meh said:

This is good agreement now between GEFS mean and ECM mean:

Slack, dry easterly seems to be being converged upon for the 6-10 day range.

Fantastic means. Thats day 6 to 10. Plenty time for any potential upgrades before this, like we have seen in recent days to earlier timeframes.

[Weathizard]

GFS and ECM mean now pretty much on board after the massive difference last night, here are the charts from last night

Compared to this morning

Edited February 17, 2018 by Weathizard

[nick sussex]

Not quite the excitement of yesterday evenings ECM run.

Its likely that the PV will have one last attempt before pressure starts to build into Greenland .

The UKMO has moved overnight to a colder solution which is good news.

The GEM is stunning in terms of that cold.

The GFS is a little slower.

Overall a good start to the day. It would of course have been even better if the ECM was as bullish as last night but the overall pattern is similar.

[winterof79]

I will post one image this morning and I think it shows where we're heading no matter how many daily ups and downs.

[Weathizard]

Why do certain members of this forum go into denial mode and/or moan about people having opinions they don't like? Call it controversial but look at the ECM means from last night and the ECM op from last night then tell me things haven't taken a shift a 'snowy easterly'

It honestly amazes me people can remain so upbeat considering we are essentially pinning our hopes on the high getting far enough north day 7/8 onwards when last night the ECM had us in a brisk easterly flow as early as day 4/5, perhaps it's just model fatigue and I'm still positive we may get there eventually but the middle ground scenario of a pretty dry stack easterly doesn't excite me in the medium range

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, Gustywind said:

Not convinced the PV will be as strong as that given the SSW and warming, so not too worried about ECM. It’s still not too bad and just weakening the PV a bit and backing it west a touch would make the ECM very good.

I completely agree with this, and is my thoughts exactly! I just can’t see the PV ultimately being that strong later next week! 

Pretty encouraging runs overnight, UKMO looking much better, GEM and ICON still stonkers, ECM just showing a variation of the same theme. That is likely to continue for a few days yet(variations), the main thing is the overall theme has generally been set! UK to Scandi High..... and now it’s looking like we are seeing an emerging signal for retrogression eventually to a Greeny high, but that’s a way off yet! Great start to the day! 

Edited February 17, 2018 by karlos1983