Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[tinybill]

16 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Errr... That precip chart doesn't actually show anything over the UK

er try looking after 240 and see what is over the uk!

[That ECM]

One small step by the ukmo one giant step for a coldies confidence chart of the day for me. 

[Skyraker]

20 minutes ago, tinybill said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

all i say its  game on after tuesday after work im off to get another bag of rock salt  might need it  plenty of snow and biting winds  wind chill, if could  be very interesting in the uk next week

Or very cold and dry.

 

As they say get the cold in first, now you have just got to find your moisture.

[Ali1977]

ECM better than the GFS at T96 - colder air getting into the UK earlier (Wednesday)

Not looking as good as the last run though , PV fighting back

Edited February 17, 2018 by Ali1977

[london-snow]

Looking solid at +120 ?

At +144 not as good as last night, 

Edited February 17, 2018 by london-snow

[Aiden2012]

I maybe wrong but doesn't look good after +120 on the ecm??

[Rayth]

Killjoy ECM  +144 

[mulzy]

ECM a downgrade on yesterday evening’s run - we have lost the cold uppers at day 6.  Still should be ok from day 6.

Edited February 17, 2018 by mulzy

[Weathizard]

Looking solid for the day 6+ period but the ECM has dropped its quick route to the easterly, things being pushed back again, seems to me the models are converging on the middle ground scenario with potential late on.

[January Snowstorm]

I mentioned last night that the pv and deep cold got very strong over Canada. It's even stronger at 144 hrs on ECM

[Weathizard]

Oh the irony, ECM from hero to zero goes from the best run to the worst of the big 3 in one fell swoop

[Ali1977]

ECM might be good at picking up SSW effects - but it’s still rubbish after that. Mild outlier ?

[Gustywind]

Not convinced the PV will be as strong as that given the SSW and warming, so not too worried about ECM. It’s still not too bad and just weakening the PV a bit and backing it west a touch would make the ECM very good.

[doctor32]

GFS 0z op one of coldest members in FI, and still a huge cluster of milder (less cold) options in essembles.

ECM shows us why...

Although alot of output points to very cold from the east, nothing certain yet.

[KTtom]

Blimey, we are a fickle bunch this morning...how can you not be happy with ecm at 192? It can only go 1 way from here. The main point being not 1 model this morning goes the milder route as talked about yesterday on the beeb forecast so it looks like that hurdle has been cleared...ens are useless in this set up as proved during the last few days...they flipped to mild just as the ops flipped to cold!

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by KTtom

[Chesil View]

Gem goes for a Feb 1978 scenario at 216.  Lovely.

[chris55]

SSWs often produce large meandering areas of high pressure, where they 'meander' to will dictate whether we get milder southerlies, stonking easterlies or simply cold and settled.

gfs ens highlight this well, with some very cold some very mild and some inbetween.

A big positive this morning is up to about day 5, we are beginning to see alighnment of the models with the initial build of heights to our east. Where we end up beyond is still up for grabs but the risk of drawing in some very cold air is high.

[Gustywind]

T240 should be a cracker on the ECM, albeit Day 10 yet again.

Nope, heights not quite far enough north.

Edited February 17, 2018 by Gustywind

[Gustywind]

It’s not rubbish but it doesn’t get the high far enough north, so we can’t tap into the deep cold. It’s the outcome I fear, the deep cold tantalisingly close but ends up going south of the U.K.

[Radiating Dendrite]

That ECM is terrible - I can't get over how the run is not identical to the 12z .

In all seriousness, is this what some expected? Let's just get the easterly sorted by day 5 (all now showing this) and take it from there.

[Weathizard]

Just now, Banbury said:

Great runs this morning we ( coldies) must be happy with what we have seen 

I'm content, but I think it's deluding yourself if you don't see the ECM as a downgrade from yesterday, it's much slower and we still don't end up with anything particularly noteworthy snow chances wise at 240.

Overall I'm quite happy the GFS and UKM have made moves but the ECM has also moved, for the worse.

[Gustywind]

It’s not terrible, but the GFS ensembles have plenty of similarly average looking members. High pressure becoming stuck too close to the U.K. is the biggest risk in terms of the U.K. missing out on deep cold.

[london-snow]

Ecm looks very good up to +96 and then goes down the route to show a different variation (the delayed route).

I would be a very happy cold camper this morning with across the board easterlys showing up. It’s day 5 and beyond we start to see varying solutions nothing terrible at all but we really want the quickest route to cold and not be left in a middle ground ‘holding pattern’ until day 10 where we all know if it can go wrong it will.

 

p.s fax charts will be interesting later and could/should shed some light on what the pros are thinking ? 

Edited February 17, 2018 by london-snow

[The PIT]

ECM drifting away from the idea failing to produce the cold run shown yesterday. UKMO now beginning to agree and may follow ECM in it's evolution. GFS now drifting to the idea but doesn't really deliver any real cold uppers until late in the run. So overall turning colder but nothing of note with these runs. They may still be fishing for the correct outcome or finally tapped into something more realistic.

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

It’s not rubbish but it doesn’t get the high far enough north, so we can’t tap into the deep cold. It’s the outcome I fear, the deep cold tantalisingly close but ends up going south of the U.K.

A 264 chart would have us in lovely cold air it’s not going South it’s moving East to West . I know it’s a slower evolution but it’s still ok to me