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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

WOW, looks like even the zonal biased GFS is on board the massive long-draw easterly train by the end of the run

gfsnh-0-372.png?18

whatever next?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The 18z is doing what the 12z mean did,retrogression of height's to build NW into greenland with the pv lifting out of Canada to Siberia,i am liking these trends very muchy:D

tempresult_xds5.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summer, Cold winter
  • Location: Netherlands

As I tried to point out yesterday: the developments are dominated by the largescale movements due to the SSW: as a consequence of the revearsal in the Stratosphere the tropospherical vortex-energie above Canada/Geenland is bound to move to the Pacific side. 

It is strange to see that most models see this in the longe range but fail to incorporate it in the short-range. It is still my opinion/question that this is because hi-res models are mislead by shortwave activity!

The positioning of the HP across Europe is an example of this: it will occur because of the large scale dynamics, the only question is: where will it land.

      

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Gfs 18z trend is great but I'm hoping the route to very cold will be quicker as per Ecm..I think we have a very good chance..night all:)

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

With the predicted easterly I'd say there was a modicum of coolish air to tap into...

image.thumb.png.5d3826e3d8346e6b908db79cbe92472f.png

:laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Not all plain sailing on the clusters - a 20% cluster sticking to this morning's GFS solution.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018021612_192.

But of course that means 80% on the cold side.

Perhaps a little too soon to be exploring D11-D15, but it still looks like a NW height rise is the overwhelming favourite:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018021612_300.

The daffodils won't like that!!

Niether will i if my zip is down:D

good trends tonight for a poss easterly then a retrogression into Greenland all aided by the second pulse of warming on slaughting the Canadian pv.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

All looks zonal to me but back to front

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
19 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

all a bit tense in here tonight! stop worrying. the models are simply closing in on the arrival of this easterly. by my calculations, it will arrive precisely on the 30th of february....

Does that mean we go back to snowy 1985 ?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

All looks zonal to me but back to front

Don't mention that word in here:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

12z ens 

EF01540B-4D72-43C6-8F9A-83CC34A23AF9.thumb.gif.c216abcfdf6203b7ea99458a221b958f.gif

Still very decent indeed! Amazingly not a cold outlier :shok:

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Just now, karlos1983 said:

12z ens 

EF01540B-4D72-43C6-8F9A-83CC34A23AF9.thumb.gif.c216abcfdf6203b7ea99458a221b958f.gif

Definite increase in the mild members from earlier.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JN84-21.GIF?17-18

JMA 18z keeping the faith.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Definite increase in the mild members from earlier.

D8 agreement is quite incredible though! Noteworthy!

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Posted
  • Location: Dartmoor (954 AMSL)
  • Location: Dartmoor (954 AMSL)

I note that the most recent Met Office pressure chart for the 22nd, has us under a high pressure system with an easterly aspect with a 1025 sea level pressure forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

12z ens 

EF01540B-4D72-43C6-8F9A-83CC34A23AF9.thumb.gif.c216abcfdf6203b7ea99458a221b958f.gif

Still very decent indeed! Amazingly not a cold outlier :shok:

It will be even better if the -10 shows up on future ens:D,that is still a good chart tough.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
42 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

I assume you have some scientific reasoning to back this up?

Yes....tomorrow never comes!! :D

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
18 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

For those that are interested, as I type this, the coldest area within the stratosphere anywhere around the globe is now, directly above the United Kingdom. At a pressure setting of 10 hPa, there is a minus 20 degrees anomaly. Above the UK at 10 hPa (101,000 ft) it is showing MINUS 69, the coldest area above the planet within the stratosphere.

Love it - it's the equivalent of a strat post card 

PSCs are pretty but they are in the toaster

image.thumb.png.932b9d58b73093af7b3b747a12c28f5d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

Doesn't appear to be anything of interest on the way for coldies when looking at 18z GEFS ensembles for North Yorkshire.

graphe3_1000_285_1___.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
20 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

For those that are interested, as I type this, the coldest area within the stratosphere anywhere around the globe is now, directly above the United Kingdom. At a pressure setting of 10 hPa, there is a minus 20 degrees anomaly. Above the UK at 10 hPa (101,000 ft) it is showing MINUS 69, the coldest area above the planet within the stratosphere.

if anyone is unsure of the definition of irony, - thats it.... right there....

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
32 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

For those that are interested, as I type this, the coldest area within the stratosphere anywhere around the globe is now, directly above the United Kingdom. At a pressure setting of 10 hPa, there is a minus 20 degrees anomaly. Above the UK at 10 hPa (101,000 ft) it is showing MINUS 69, the coldest area above the planet within the stratosphere.

What’s even more mental is the temp abouve northern Canada +2.5oC at the same height. SSW at its best.

44E28E0B-CEAB-4F11-A7EC-D02F98D8CAFA.png

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale

From all the elation in here tonight, I thought we had finally gotten closer to the Beast. Looking at the 12 and 18z GFS OPs, they are both at the colder end of the ensembles, BUT from my eyes there looks to be about a 50/50 split and the control runs are at the mild end of the suite. The means are also above the long term average for the majority of the run. Please tell me I'm missing something. Tell me I'm wrong lol. I don't see any reason to be positive tonight barring the improvement in the ECM which luckily is not an outlier and is very close to the mean. Once again, I see a standoff. GFS is still either saying no, or "I don't have a clue" in my untrained eyes.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
3 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

From all the elation in here tonight, I thought we had finally gotten closer to the Beast. Looking at the 12 and 18z GFS OPs, they are both at the colder end of the ensembles, BUT from my eyes there looks to be about a 50/50 split and the control runs are at the mild end of the suite. The means are also above the long term average for the majority of the run. Please tell me I'm missing something. Tell me I'm wrong lol. I don't see any reason to be positive tonight barring the improvement in the ECM which luckily is not an outlier and is very close to the mean. Once again, I see a standoff. GFS is still either saying no, or "I don't have a clue" in my untrained eyes.

We have? Don’t bother with the GEFS it will be operational which will sniff it out at this close range with its higher resolution and for that matter EC ones are markedly better with strong support for OP. There is not a 50/50 split evident I’d go as far and say it’s 85/15 in favour of easterlies taking hold. The possibility of coldest weather extending into first week of March, we must remind ourselves ECM is top performing model.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

If it wasn't for the fact that the guys in Exeter are on board I would be very dubious about the forthcoming easterly as the GEFS are far from inspiring but anyone who watched the 10pm forecast will now the MetO are really Ramping it so I have no choice but to Ramp as well.

Going to get one of those cheap sledges in the sale at ASDA tomorrow for the Grand kids, that will jinx it!

Andy

 

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