Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.

Need that low over the Azores to give the high a kick up the weeble! 

9411334B-D6B9-45F7-B1BD-DC30517EEBD0.png

Edited by Fingers
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Just now, parrotingfantasist said:

Yet again! Same as last night! Stop judging the entirety of a run and going apopleptic when its only T114 in, its already confusing in here at the best of times!

Well if you look at the difference a to t96 the damage has been done and the difference is huge, nobody is going apoplectic? Bizzare post.

 

GFS looking much like its 12z, at least its consistently crap

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
1 minute ago, Catacol said:

You must be watching a different GFS than the one on my screen. Pressure differential is higher - block is stronger, low to the south deeper....

Looks very similar to the 12z to me??

IMG_0198.PNG

IMG_0199.PNG

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, Catacol said:

You must be watching a different GFS than the one on my screen. Pressure differential is higher - block is stronger, low to the south deeper....

Yep all it needs to do is have the high slightly higher and bang you have the easterly ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, jules216 said:

on 18z ICON, you can clearly see the importance of Gulf of Genoa low that will prevent High from sinking a classic trigger to some cold spells from past,lets hope she is there tomorrow

 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

Yes,this low is stronger on the 18z gfs to that of the 12z,can only be more beneficial later on:)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS just starting to take the High north of UK by T132, later than ECM, but given its zonal bias I don't see this as an issue, model at T 132

gfs-0-132.png?18

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
9 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Yet again! Same as last night! Stop judging the entirety of a run and going apoplectic when its only T114 in, its already confusing in here at the best of times!

 

 

edit: sp mistake

And like last night - The building blocks to this Easterly happen between 72-102hrs. It's at this point ICON/ECM/GEM get the pieces in place to go onto produce the bitterly cold Easterlies that they produce for next week. The GFS doesn't do this at the same timeframe and thus, the Easterly is delayed compared to the other models. 

You don't always need to see an entire run to know the outcome, especially when anything beyond T114 may as well not even exist given the huge amount of fluctuation between runs at the moment.

Yes, GFS will get there. It's actually more amplified at 144 than the 12z was so in that way, it's an improvement, but that means nothing if it's already gone wrong at the 72hrs mark.

Poor short term, improvement mid-long term.

Edited by Daniel Smith
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, MattStoke said:

Better heights to the north and east. It should still deliver an easterly. It will just be slower than the ECM, again. 

Yep just later on ??

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
10 minutes ago, Ruben Amsterdam said:

The problem is the small low of the Norwegian coast shown here at +96. This prevents fusion between the two area's of high pressure. 

GFSOPEU18_96_1.png

It was a shortwave off the coast of Norway that shafted the Dec 2012 ‘that’ ECM easterly if I recall. Different gravy this time though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No one notice Exeter going with raw ukmo at day 5 then ............

Yes bizarre !

This really is a stand off because the ECM mean really couldn’t be any more behind the op at day 4 and if you get to that point the UKMO simply can’t verify .

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No one notice Exeter going with raw ukmo at day 5 then ............

The 5 day fax chart goes with the ukmo raw 99% of the time no matter what so I wouldn't worry too much about that. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The 5 day fax chart goes with the ukmo raw 99% of the time no matter what so I wouldn't worry too much about that. 

I was just going to say I thought they always went with the raw chart at that range?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

The 5 day fax chart goes with the ukmo raw 99% of the time no matter what so I wouldn't worry too much about that. 

Yep I'm pretty sure they only interfere at t96 and below . BBC easterly by weds and turning cold with snow at the end of the week . That's the favoured outcome ?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The back door is starting to open at 180+,a bit further east than the 12z but should be ok.

gfsnh-0-186.png?18

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes bizarre !

This really is a stand off because the ECM mean really couldn’t be any more behind the op at day 4 and if you get to that point the UKMO simply can’t verify .

 

Being the weather geek I am, I have noticed over the years that those fax charts are only ever modified against the ukmo raw at around the 3 day timeframe. Days 4 and 5 (the late evening updates) always mirror the ukmo raw. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The 5 day fax chart goes with the ukmo raw 99% of the time no matter what so I wouldn't worry too much about that. 

Genuine question, can anyone recall the last time it didn’t and the reasons why?. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...