Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

Seeing comments Steve saying the models show a dry easterly. What are your expectations with regards how precipitation would form in this set up ? instability caused as the cold air crosses the north sea ? Re the 1987 event, I seem to recall there being a big low in Europe which led to 2 feet of snow where I live (below sea level).     

if we have -11/-12/-13 air with low heights then its a snow maker !! 

heights below 540 DAM or better

ECM 240 for london has -15c + 530 Heights & 515 DAM ( approx ) = huge snow showers

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, Raythan said:

The milder side of the mogreps? , like the ecm was doing earlier this week with its own ensembles perhaps ?

The UKMO do take account of the ECM op and it’s ensembles . They have been known to modify their raw output although to be honest the only people that look at those fax charts is us weather anoraks ! The main thing is the UKMO has improved from its 00 hrs run and at least it’s moving in the right direction.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean is another upgrade!! as means go this is superb if you want a prolonged very cold Easterly setting in with snow and severe frosts..BOOM!:D:cold-emoji:

ECMAVGEU12_120_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_144_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
16 minutes ago, Fred Sykes said:

I would love to see this cold come off as much as the next person, BUT, If I had a penny for every time i've seen BOOM turn to GLOOM over the years, i'd have my own chalet in Courchevel and wouldn't need to read this thread! Caution still needed folks :)

Indeed, ! If I had a pound for every time the models were right in the outer reaches of the model output ,I would be a very poor man:rofl: BBC just mentioned Easterly winds later next week when yesterday they said the opposite:rofl: Anyway , the gfs 06z today and the 12 z , complete opposites , and the ecms 12z run tonight is a cold lovers dream, but given the high level of Shannon Entropy , nothing even five days away should be taken literally...:hi:

fiona.png

fionax.png

fionaxx.png

chocolate-teapot1.jpg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
1 minute ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

Seeing comments Steve saying the models show a dry easterly. What are your expectations with regards how precipitation would form in this set up ? instability caused as the cold air crosses the north sea ? Re the 1987 event, I seem to recall there being a big low in Europe which led to 2 feet of snow where I live (below sea level).     

We should be okay. Thing to watch is air pressure. Not an exact science but broadly below 1020 with that depth of cold and its probably boom time. 1025 - 1030 is okayish but once it gets much above that its flurries only. Deep cold doesn't always equal convection but in this case (as things stand) we would probably fair well enough.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Location: Canvey Island
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

if we have -11/-12/-13 air with low heights then its a snow maker !! 

heights below 540 DAM or better

ECM 240 for london has -15c + 530 Heights & 515 DAM ( approx ) = huge snow showers

Many thanks all sounds good to me. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Have we ever seen such a complete model divergence? The ECM and GFS ensemble suites are complete opposites it's quite remarkable, one model will never be trusted again... particularly if the ecm lets us down (as it's the cold hopeful)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

ECM ensembles have the first high pressure a little further south than is ideal for as first blast, but a large chunk are cold and dry. Still waiting to see what the more interesting part of the run looks like, think we are going to get some crazy ensemble members!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
1 hour ago, radiohead said:

Uppers not as cold at 216 but some really cold air lurking to the west...

ECU0-216.GIF?16-0

West ??? Or East? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
2 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

West ??? Or East? 

Looks East to me. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The ecm mean in animation:D,the op was a cold outlier though but the mean looks cold anyway

tempresult_lti2.gifEDH1-240.GIF?16-0graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=306&y=144&run=1

De-built ens,temps, dewpoints and wind direction

my word:shok:

eps_pluim_tt_06260.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.png

here is us in a week or so's time,if it comes off.

beard_frozen.jpg:cold:

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Just now, Deep Snow please said:

Needs to be a bit further north. 

Aye and a few degrees tilt wouldn't harm!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I'm fascinated by this potential cold spell.  I (like many others I'm sure) have been following the model output since the SSW was forecast at the beginning of the month, and by today found myself giving frame by frame commentary in the MOD thread as the epic ECM 12z rolled out (not usual behaviour for me!). 

After today's 12z output and the Met Office views, I'm confident that something interesting is afoot.  But what?  There is in my opinion now say a 40% chance of a quite significant cold outbreak - and given it will stretch into March if it happens, it could make March 2013 look balmy! 

Very interesting times,let's see how it plays out.

(mods - meant to put this one in the cold spell thread, not sure why it ended up in here (beer possibly responsible!) please move if it's off topic.)

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gefs mean shows a retrogression to Greenland and the pv lifting out of Canada to Siberia

lovely to see it in motion:D

tempresult_dve5.gif

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Here we go again then. 

ICON an improvement at 66hrs, shortwave further South, Easterly flow developing a little earlier

66hr.thumb.png.5444601554e75d3035540cf71eb7cdc7.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
3 hours ago, carinthian said:

Just a further thought to the above, forecasts this evening from the computer models now all now showing cold outlook on the agenda. Now SSW has taken place, it sometimes takes up to 10 days for the full cold effect to take place. Our service provider think 70 % certainty now , which is in the high category . Of course timing and depth of cold is still on the cards. Still could switch quickly ( with 96h time ) or more likely Day 6 into the freezer. Fax viewing is now the best option to watch the developing cold and speed of advection. Short wave positioning to the East could also impact greatly as to source of cold ( ie) Arctic C or Continental flow ).

 C

Well, ECM going for Arctic Continental flow of the brutal kind into Central Europe. Don't think I will have experienced such cold as this if it came off !

 C

ECMOPME12_240_2.png

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Here we go again then. 

ICON an improvement at 66hrs, shortwave further South, Easterly flow developing a little earlier

66hr.thumb.png.5444601554e75d3035540cf71eb7cdc7.png

Trough disruption evident from the PV to the West as well this early.....

Edited by inghams85
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Ive only just got round to viewing the ECM tonight, kids birthday party! But oh my goodness it was worth the wait!!! And a very enjoyable 8 pages to catch up on. I am staggered that even with those charts there is still some glass half empty posts, some people could win the lottery and not be happy lol! Just wow

026A1EB2-92D3-46C1-9FD4-732B286474F7.thumb.png.b4821a585d2f5160eea5107a4ac087cf.pngEACA6EF6-E4D1-4AE3-8570-1AA5A3EE6236.thumb.png.58115f40d1c5846f1b959975b5a31748.png

I guess the only concern is how on earth do we get upgrades from that! ?‍♂️ 

 

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...