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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

To those pouring cold water after this epic run I would note that a) this evolution starts at T72 - if the worlds best model has this wrong at that timescale then we may as we'll go back to tea leaves, seaweed and witchcraft, b) it has Met Office support and has had for a while, and c) OF COURSE we know that the latter half of the run is just for fun and probably won't verify - but what if it did?

Just a word of caution, I've seen the models flip with 24 hours to go. It's F1 for a reason, but agree with the trend is there, but that' all it is at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

That is the Single most best run i have seen from ECM this evening and the potential at Post 240 is for a prolonged cold spell to become deeply established.However,it is just one run and i just hope that over the weekend we get Full Model agreement on Cold spell starting from Next weds/Thurs.Exciting times and i just hope the 5 year wait for most of Southern England from a notable snowfall will be over and we can join in the fun that quite a bit Of Northern Britain has experienced this winter.

Good Luck and keep those fingers crossed.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I didn't think the Ecm 00z could be beaten but the 12z has gone and done just that!..whereas the 00z was preparing a breakdown from the south at day 10..the 12z has completely locked in the bitterly cold Easterly pattern and I hope for all the coldies on here that we get a BLOCKBUSTER end to this winter which lasts well into next month too!!:):cold:

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Despite the depth of cold, 12Z ECM was surprisingly quite a dry run out to 240 hours, with less than 1cm of snow for the south and midlands.

 

SHxR3Vp.png

Doesn’t take into account convection someone said - and there would be plenty on that run 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

12z models are decent tonight. Most are cold to varying degrees though obviously the ECM steals the show. 

Insane run, if you want a guide in terms of snow, Feb 91 would be pretty good guide. Best op run ever? 

I will report back about the exact nature of ECM ensembles. Hope one run goes to -18c like yesterday!

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I cant see ramping.....just what the epic ecm is showing...

Now theres a ramp!!!?

Been a while since you've quoted me in a tropic and engaged converation. Was beginning to think you were ignoring me? Lol

All i wish to say is tread carefully. It's easy to get over passionate and then let optimism cloud better judgement. The come down can be harsh if it all falls apart at the end.

Not that it's worth anything but I do believe something quite historic (in terms of against the 81-000 winter/spring general) is unfolding but I'm skeptical about when it will occur i.e before or after months end.

Edited by Optimus Prime
if not when
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
44 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Worth checking out correlation data here that links strength of the Icelandic Low with conditions in the North Pacific. Masiello produced a really good visual graphic earlier in the season demonstrating that when pressure is high in the North Pacific during winter more often than not it is low in the North Atlantic - and vice versa. As such there is a growing theory that low Barents Sea ice = higher probability of a dominant ridge in this area... and hence higher propensity for a +NAO. Lots more research to be done on impacts of low sea ice, but would appear to be a factor.

Then perhaps we could benefit from more -PDO then +PDO as that is linked North Pacific and Alaskan high, and -EPO,no?

I have also overlooked not while ago somewhere,that apparently the azores high is stronger in recent years and that might contribute to the steep temperature gradient in the north atlantic and fueling up the jet stream subsequently, there are far too many teleconnections involved but somehow they all managed to yield +NAO for so long now, actually between late 80s and early 90s we managed 8 winters with +NAO overall, I am not sure if all individual months were +NAO as between Dec14 and Feb18

naots2_2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m

So, what are the chances of it actually happening? We've seen charts like this before only for the inevitable backtrack. Just wondering what we need to look for in terms of this becoming reality? Are there developments at an early timeframe which would then secure (in a broad sense) this kind of synoptical development?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just thought I would mention that the GEFS 12z mean trends much colder compared to the 6z..great blocking develops!:):cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM ensemble mean at T96 hrs is almost a carbon copy of the op.

Given how important this early stage is one wonders what on earth the UKMO is up to.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just thought I would mention that the GEFS 12z mean trends much colder compared to the 6z..great blocking develops!:):cold:

Some stunning GEFS 12z perturbations here!:):shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Absolutely phenomenal model output tonight apart from UKMOECM 12Z is better than 2010 a protracted freeze that would go down in history things get going as soon as T+96 so exciting! 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Re: UKMO. We don't have access to the ensembles, it could be doing what the ECM did the other day where the OP was going for no Easterly but the ensembles remained solid with the colder outlook. 

It would be nice if we could see where the UKMO sat within it's ensembles but we can't, I suspect given the continued outlook by the Met that the UKMO is a mild outlier, it's certainly a mild outlier when viewed against the EPS. 

GFS has backtracked and will probably continue the upgrade path on the 18z if the 12z ECM is anything to go by, expect the UKMO to be on board tomorrow, or at least halfway there. UKMO probably had the pattern right when it went cold a couple of days ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
4 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Just 1.....No Nick Sussex classic short waves scuppering the build of the high!!.....If NS is on board were fine.

:D I think we need to get the UKMO onside . Early shortwave drama is unlikely that’s not the current issue as you’d see me moaning about it !

The UKMO has at least improved but I’m still mystified given the ECM mean is so close to the op how the former is still dragging its heels.

Lets hope the UKMO ditch their raw output and we see them modify that in the fax charts because that would suggest they think it’s gone rogue !

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
7 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Well this would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons

C16A619E-1C0D-4E09-B296-FA09A6446FDA.jpeg

Yep , frozen together in the same ice cube 

unbelievable temp values ! Stunner 

1B1464E2-6411-4E0F-BFBE-B71C03FB7E3D.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

UKMO not on board is a concern. Any other model and it would be fine but the UKMO is the dream killer while also the dream maker.

Other than that the ECM is probably the best run I've seen since that ECM cold starts next week on Wednesday and just gets better.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Location: Canvey Island
24 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Remember the rough lapse rates from 850 temps at this time of year are +11/+12 so on day 10 of ECM looking at -2/-3 maxima in heavy snow showers !!!

Seeing comments Steve saying the models show a dry easterly. What are your expectations with regards how precipitation would form in this set up ? instability caused as the cold air crosses the north sea ? Re the 1987 event, I seem to recall there being a big low in Europe which led to 2 feet of snow where I live (below sea level).     

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

:D I think we need to get the UKMO onside . Early shortwave drama is unlikely that’s not the current issue as you’d see me moaning about it !

The UKMO has at least improved but I’m still mystified given the ECM mean is so close to the op how the former is still dragging its heels.

Lets hope the UKMO ditch their raw output and we see them modify that in the fax charts because that would suggest they think it’s gone rogue !

 

The milder side of the mogreps? , like the ecm was doing earlier this week with its own ensembles perhaps ?

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