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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Too many people getting excited again at 9/10 days time charts - how many times have we seen this from the ECM or GFS only to be watered down or simply not verify this winter?...

 

Yes.....that is true. The positive though is that the earlier part of runs this afternoon have upgraded. 

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Too many people getting excited again at 9/10 days time charts - how many times have we seen this from the ECM or GFS only to be watered down or simply not verify this winter?...

 

Plenty, but you need to look at the general pattern and extrapolate from that. No sane person is saying that the weather will be as the ECM is showing, but given the current circumstances it's good to use it as a guide alongside the outputs from the other models.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Too many people getting excited again at 9/10 days time charts - how many times have we seen this from the ECM or GFS only to be watered down or simply not verify this winter?...

 

Good point, nothing to get excited about eh?:D

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Too many people getting excited again at 9/10 days time charts - how many times have we seen this from the ECM or GFS only to be watered down or simply not verify this winter?...

 

It’s not really about 10 days out I’m interested in  Thursday next week the  building blocks .:D

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Too many people getting excited again at 9/10 days time 

 

The trend is from much earlier which leads to the Ecm 12z's epicness..if that's even a word:D..it will have been worth waiting nearly all winter if this happens!!:cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Too many people getting excited again at 9/10 days time charts - how many times have we seen this from the ECM or GFS only to be watered down or simply not verify this winter?...

 

Day 4 IMG_1539.thumb.PNG.7740436a701aaf70834c8b0f82373000.PNG

day 5 IMG_1540.thumb.PNG.0680d78f5f64c83f25f5c9f00a0edfba.PNG

day 6 IMG_1541.thumb.PNG.f745d76f9af04eb1073592ae71bef276.PNG

?

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Fantastic synoptics from the ECM tonight. It' well into F1 though which is always a worry. It wasn' long ago it showed similar and scrambled back. Lots more runs needed and more models needed to join the ECM party before we can get really excited, but its the right kind of synoptics i would expect following a major SSW. Reversal in full effect.

Interesting GFS to come tonight. 

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
2 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

Christ give everyone a minute to enjoy their passion. The majority knows the caveats but this is what some of us stupid cold fans live for! Cmon....

Isn't that what the ramping thread is for?

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I know im late to the party

 

BOOOMMMMM

87093A02-E488-4C3E-B377-CFA643601E13.thumb.png.3684de9077dddfbe0e1489f0f2350046.png35F82223-4AA3-471E-B2CD-209021A759F9.thumb.png.a138d956674477521856f9a60460d15e.png

A party that will start off playing Ian Dury (hit me with your rhythm stick) and end up half an hour later playing Justin Bieber whilst everybody heads to the pub at 9pm sharpish. :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Kenilworth, Warks
  • Location: Kenilworth, Warks

Marginal at best :rofl:

Especially in Walsall :fool:

In all seriousness i have never seen such a peachy run in a very, very long time... if ever :yahoo:

Let's hope the trend continues on future runs and this volatility settles down a little :cold::cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
6 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Too many people getting excited again at 9/10 days time charts - how many times have we seen this from the ECM or GFS only to be watered down or simply not verify this winter?...

 

Eh?

Building blocks in place, with snow showers into the East by TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. Only one way from there IF the ECM setup verifies.

In fact next week is a mere starter...

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
4 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

Christ give everyone a minute to enjoy their passion. The majority knows the caveats but this is what some of us stupid cold fans live for! Cmon....

and dies for...when we all know what happens, if this continues by tomorrow 12z then maybe my eyebrow might be raised.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, bluearmy said:

Can’t  see any dp’s close  to zero (in case anyone thinks you’re serious ed)

what I can see at T210 over Holland are dp’s sub zero F !!!!!!, wow!

You reckon this will be a warm outlier blue? ?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

To those pouring cold water after this epic run I would note that a) this evolution starts at T72 - if the worlds best model has this wrong at that timescale then we may as we'll go back to tea leaves, seaweed and witchcraft, b) it has Met Office support and has had for a while, c) it is consistent with expected evolution after SSW and d) OF COURSE we know that the latter half of the run is just for fun and probably won't verify - but what if it did?

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Haven't had a look at the GFS 12z but going by posts it's nowhere near what the ECM is showing and obviously at quite a short time they differ?

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Yup.

The Scandi shortwave drama is over, we finally have model consensus at T72 of this dropping Southwards so we've passed stage 1. Once the initial Easterly sets up at day 4, there's only one way we're going and that's into the freezer. There's some model disagreement on this but by and large, every model shows this Easterly.

5a872dc5a5533_Day4.thumb.gif.46c122f230e9606fe2b110f9dac6b59b.gif

Day 7 is the next hurdle to watch. Low heights over Europe ideally we want this pushing Northwards a little to keep the Easterly tight, put slight pressure on the high to keep it amplified and stop milder air from the South getting into the mix. Once we have these low heights in place as per ECM, we will not have a problem with the Canadian Vortex trying to send energy over the top, the block is stuck, it wont sink,

5a872f4d0007a_Day7.thumb.gif.63ae90f72bee900aeafc79a8e211c6b2.gif

Beyond that, we want to look for the Canadian PV to weaken which seems a fair bet given secondary warming directly above it, then we can start to look into the high retrogressing to Greenland and extending the cold pool at least another week.

Fun and games potentially starting day 4/5 in the E/SE, significant snow not likely until at least day 7 (assuming this evolution follows through). Whilst the day 10 charts look great, it's what happens day 3/4 that gets us there.

Good runs. Big step forward this evening, expect 18z to continue with upgrades early doors, though perhaps wavering in severity in FI. UKMO will hopefully come back on board in the morning.

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
15 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Isn't that what the ramping thread is for?

I cant see ramping.....just what the epic ecm is showing...

Now theres a ramp!!!?

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

If we can get those building blocks in place and get to that start position I’d think we would be locked in for some time, we will all be buying sledges and very very thick coats

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
Just now, radiohead said:

Despite the depth of cold, 12Z ECM was surprisingly quite a dry run out to 240 hours, with less than 1cm of snow for the south and midlands.

 

SHxR3Vp.png

this doesn't mean it will accumulate, the forecast means that if it did snow and every flake stayed, thats how much there would be

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