Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Next frame will see the high tilt giving us southeasterly winds because of the pressure from the low to the southwest, we could ideally have the Mediterranean low further east in a perfect world aswel but still very much a good run 

[Rayth]

2 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

We might have to wait until a little longer before we MAY feel it's full impact. 

Wednesday instead of Tuesday ? 

[January Snowstorm]

What catches my eye is how strong the vortex is over Canada at 168hrs....There might be deep cold to our East but over Canada looks incredible.....surely if the stray warming is that record breaking we should be seen better heights to our North soon

[radiohead]

Brrrrrrr

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Looking good

Edited February 16, 2018 by SN0W SN0W SN0W

[Catacol]

5 hours ago, jules216 said:

This is precisely what I was eluding to in my previous post today,the +NAO has been omnipresent for past 5 winters now despite some favourable background signals and I believe as nice as some re- analysis look,we can not explain the persistent nature of +NAO then all the teleconections have to be taken with a dose of scepticism, we have been burned out a lot with eye candy collapse at  last minute,some put it down to solar influences,but I suspect the SST in Atlantic are key with the lack of Atlantic tripole  signature,scupering shorwaves poping up etc.,there has been very little discussion about it in mods,but a lot about enso,strat,mjo,but for us surrounding SST and AMO must hold a key importance 

Worth checking out correlation data here that links strength of the Icelandic Low with conditions in the North Pacific. Masiello produced a really good visual graphic earlier in the season demonstrating that when pressure is high in the North Pacific during winter more often than not it is low in the North Atlantic - and vice versa. As such there is a growing theory that low Barents Sea ice = higher probability of a dominant ridge in this area... and hence higher propensity for a +NAO. Lots more research to be done on impacts of low sea ice, but would appear to be a factor.

[ICE COLD]

Another boom for 192 ?. Steve murr where are you ? 

Edited February 16, 2018 by ICE COLD
Steve murr is missing

[inghams85]

6 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Think you are slightly confused. Westerly's in the stratosphere you mean? The winds that influence our level at 2M are atmospheric pressure at 3 miles, the troposphere. The stratosphere is 6 miles up. It's whether or not those reversal in winds propagate down to what impacts us the most that is important. The jetstream is just a little higher up than the troposphere so that will feel the affects first but may stay just active enough at the current date of interest,.

We might have to wait until a little longer before we MAY feel it's full impact. 

I'm aware of how that works. The winds have already propagated down and models are making adjustments every day to show this hence the backing back of the PV to our West with every run!

[Yarmy]

9 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Think you are slightly confused. Westerly's in the stratosphere you mean? The winds that influence our level at 2M are atmospheric pressure at 3 miles, the troposphere. The stratosphere is 6 miles up. It's whether or not those reversal in winds propagate down to what impacts us the most that is important. The jetstream is just a little higher up than the troposphere so that will feel the affects first but may stay just active enough at the current date of interest,.

We might have to wait until a little longer before we MAY feel it's full impact. 

But you can literally see that the energy has NOT gone over the top between T96 and T144:

T96

T144

 

What's being modelled here is a quick tropospheric response to the SSW. Whether it's correct or not remains to be seen. (and I won't be convinced until the UKMO joins in)

Edited February 16, 2018 by Yarmy

[Mike Poole]

T192 heading towards epic territory

Detail still to be ironed out but the basic cold evolution in the early part of the run nailed surely?

Edited February 16, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Optimus Prime]

3 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Wednesday instead of Tuesday ? 

I don't know. I wouldn't even class myself as an armchair expert to be honest. Probably a few days after Wednesday? Either way I'm really not bothered, just saying it as I'm seeing it

ECM is in the right direction but real issue is getting that pressure over the med to deepen and disseminate over a wider area, and on a more westward trajectory. 

[WalsallWeather123]

WOW best chart so far at T192. Recurve back to Scandanavia. Deep cold filtering in

[tight isobar]

!!!!..locked in..and with have aligned for prolongment.

And have back up out east .

Snow a certainty- 12z...

Amazing evo-12z ecm

Edited February 16, 2018 by tight isobar

[Cloud 10]

JMA on board as well this evening.

 

168hrs..

[The PIT]

Funny if ECM became the most progressive from this. UKMP playing with the idea which is more inline with the GFS

[ALL ABOARD]

I need a lay down. 

[Day 10]

WOW! Look at the cold pool heading West

Edited February 16, 2018 by Day 10

[ICE COLD]

The ECM at 240 is gonna be even colder than the last few frames ?

[mulzy]

Another cracking run from the ECM.  If you think days 5-9 are decent, goodness knows what you will think of days 10 and beyond.  Brutal cold locked in!!

[Southender]

ECM is a peach. 2nd battalion waiting patiently in the wings out East as well. Great pattern for a decent and prolonged cold spell

[Ali1977]

So - the best model in an SSW is the ICON - well done ICON. Epic 240 coming 

[radiohead]

Uppers not as cold at 216 but some really cold air lurking to the west...

[January Snowstorm]

The trend this evening really is great. The ECM is very special indeed...

If this does work out the Met Office deserve huge credit 

[ICE COLD]

Just now, mulzy said:

Another cracking run from the ECM.  If you think days 5-9 are decent, goodness knows what you will think of days 10 and beyond.  Brutal cold locked in!!

Yep brutal cold at t240 coming ?

[kumquat]

Strange continuity on ECM between 168 and 192 in terms of flow and colld upper 850's progression. Although, if it get's to this stage I don't think anybody will worry about it.