Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[radiohead]

GEM looking fantastic at T180

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

For those who said things will get resolved tonight, think again.  Still big differences at day 5.  UKMO is a big worry...

Not resolved, agreed but what is the trend from the gfs, twice today and the ukmo? T144, plenty of time for the high to be a little further north and bring in an easterly . 

[Duane S.]

Perfection from the ICON and the GFS. Assuming you live in Northern Italy.

Maybe a slight net improvement overall so far though. Still plenty of changes ahead I'm sure.

[snowray]

Fantastic GEM, just gets better and better, -12c upper in across the uk. So GEM is running with the ECM, unless the ECM has changed again that is of course.

 

UKMO looks like GFS, so here comes the half way house solution.

[frosty ground]

Looking at the output so far i would say the easterly will happen but probably towards the back end of next week probably next weekend. It may take a day or two to get the cold in.

 

[Banbury]

After what was seen earlier today this is a huge improvement 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well  as regards to my wrestling......GEM has just done a Dwayne ‘Rock’ Johnson on thr flatter opposition.  I’ve always rated the GEM.....always  

 

BFTP

[karyo]

Overall the 12z gfs is a lot cooler than the earlier output with plenty of frosts. 

[Ali1977]

Whilst the GFS isn’t yet as good as some of the others it’s a huge step - if the pub run does another step watch the cold hit us much earlier. ECM will hopefully hold steady - you never know that might improve 

[supernova]

Small changes early on result in big differences a few days later. Better than we were this morning but there's still a way to go from GFS/UKMO in particular if next week is to deliver a decent shot at cold as opposed to a dry and rather limp-wristed easterly.

 

Edited February 16, 2018 by supernova

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Gfs t180, trough dropping east of Scandi behind the HP, small trough in Atlantic looks like sliding under towards the Euro trough......HP moving North.....I think a mega t200+ coming

 

BFTP 

[bradymk]

Confused by some posts. The GFS or UKMO are not like the GEM or this mornings ECM yet. But the key thing is that they have both trended towards the easterly rather than away from it. Unlikely we would see the GEM scenario quiet yet as that is extreme, but still plenty of time for imrovements. The trend is your friend and we’re in a better place than this time yesterday. Just compare the 12z’s compared to the 00z’s and yesterday 12’s and this is clear

 

[Banbury]

Anyone think GFS is similar to the Met update ....so far 

[Singularity]

 

Important changes in the height profile SSE and SE of the UK

Overall I feel that while we've not seen a wholesale swing over to the ECM/JMA 00z outcome (but then how much chance was there of that - not much!), the output as a whole across the various models is a good deal closer than it was this morning, and that's reason to feel optimistic... pending the 12z JMA and ECM runs of course!

 

 

There's so much deep cold just waiting for the right alignment of flow. It's like the biggest tease of all time! Literally one cooperative Atlantic trough away from a truly frigid blast. Meanwhile we sit in a chilly easterly flow with maximums of 5-7*C. So yes - we need a continued trend toward the likes of the 00z ECM and JMA to experience anything noteworthy next week as opposed to waiting until the week after.

[Scandinavian High.]

I’m happy with gfs going way met Office south easterly/ easterly later next week and in to weekend..

[karyo]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Anyone think GFS is similar to the Met update ....so far 

Indeed, cold southeasterly flow but milder in the northwest.

[January Snowstorm]

As of yet the changes are modest enough considering the major strat warming that just took place.

Hopefully the ECM will hold steady later on and with the Met still on board plenty to remain positive about

[Duane S.]

Oh my word, what a run to behold this is from the GEM! Stunning!

Look really hard and try and spot the subtle differences between the 00z and 12z GEM outputs...

And the 00z was hardly horrendous in itself.

[Ryan james]

APERGE is not good. That followed with the ECM 00z ... well

[metaltron]

Further to my previous comment, note how a lobe of the polar vortex moves around the arctic high until it is over the Scandi high; pushing it further south.

[Derecho]

Well the GFS is turning to the ECM with this 12z! Don't write off this easterly yet! (like I did ).

Still didn't think we would be at such a crossroads by this point, will we get deep cold heading our way or will it be mild SW winds? Its one extreme or the other!

That means we will get something in between. 

[winterof79]

GFS 12z is heading in a good direction

[Singularity]

 

Okay - that low over SW Scandinavia has turned into a helper with some seriously deep cold being fed into the up-flow region. Just need to maintain that flow - let's see if GFS can come up with a way to prevent that because we all know how much it loves to do that! The shape of the high is very good though!

[Scandinavian High.]

What a difference.

Southerly

Easterly 

Edited February 16, 2018 by abbie123

[Banbury]

Stunning .....following the Met , well done GFS