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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Live Saarbruecken, Germany, work in Luxembourg
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy in Winter, Cold and Wet in Summer
  • Location: Live Saarbruecken, Germany, work in Luxembourg

May I please ask what the levels of vertical resolution refer to?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, titchjuicy said:

May I please ask what the levels of vertical resolution refer to?

 

My understanding is the more levels the more likely it is to be accurate. Unless of course you have an historical SSW unfolding, at which point it could have 300 and we’d still be none the wiser lol

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

I know the next set of runs are important ,but surely the met office update,due anytime now is even more important,if they backtrack then it’s most probably game over ,hide behind the sofa time coming up......:fool:

ok still the same as before..

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

My understanding is the more levels the more likely it is to be accurate. Unless of course you have a historical SSW unfolding, at which point it could have 300 and we’d still be none the wiser lol

 

5 minutes ago, titchjuicy said:

May I please ask what the levels of vertical resolution refer to?

 

Only have a basic understanding too, but the ECM which have double the vertical levels of GFS has a better grasp at predicting the track and development of weather systems than the GFS

I think? :cc_confused:

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
3 minutes ago, titchjuicy said:

May I please ask what the levels of vertical resolution refer to?

 

All the models subdivide the atmosphere into a grid of 3D cells. Each cell in the grid is a cuboid (or icosahedron in the case of the ICON) sharing the same properties: temperature, pressure, etc. The smaller the cells, the higher the resolution and (hopefully) the more accurate the model.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Based on the update the Met are discounting the GFS and it's ensemble suite and must be relying on EPS & GLOSEA, this to me suggests we'll see the GFS continue to switch across to the ECM solution.

No significant change from the ICON just yet

ICON1.thumb.png.94f1c9a009b1677eafd76a7633ee0dc8.png

Edited by Daniel Smith
Added context
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Met Office has updated and there's been no chance, still talking of possible significant snow. 

I know not strictly model related but the above tells us that the Met are discounting the GFS and it's ensemble suite and must be relying on EPS & GLOSEA, this to me suggests we'll see the GFS continue to switch across to the ECM solution.

No significant change from the ICON just yet

ICON1.thumb.png.94f1c9a009b1677eafd76a7633ee0dc8.png

Shortwave appears to be dropping south earlier to me.... just

5A64A1DC-1856-4513-9FC8-D0FC4EAE57FE.thumb.png.334a74cc1d9d148cfb07ec045dd11e10.png

let’s see how it evolves in the next few frames... tense 

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

I know we do this dance pretty much daily, but please, please (x10) can we keep the meto stuff in the meto thread, this thread is for discussing the models. 

Also, the banter thread is open and busy for those who just want to chat loosely about the models, perhaps react emotionally (eg moan or ramp up 'feelings' about what the models may or may not do) etc. Those sort of posts are fine, just not in here, as this thread should be for discussing the actual output. 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Live Saarbruecken, Germany, work in Luxembourg
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy in Winter, Cold and Wet in Summer
  • Location: Live Saarbruecken, Germany, work in Luxembourg
10 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

All the models subdivide the atmosphere into a grid of 3D cells. Each cell in the grid is a cuboid (or icosahedron in the case of the ICON) sharing the same properties: temperature, pressure, etc. The smaller the cells, the higher the resolution and (hopefully) the more accurate the model.

 

thanks. And thanks for the others that replied.

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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

The low in the mid Atlantic is a lot deeper and slightly better ridging north into the west of Scandinavia to my untrained eye?

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Pretty consistent by the ICON, bravo ? 

FADDFCC0-5316-43A6-A428-7E5AB435727E.thumb.png.8c9963c3dc506fbb27103907c848e8ae.png39719E7A-89EB-429F-99EF-C2112929C2C3.thumb.png.ed7d95a5418ea30da2de2481b39c4eb8.png

If we can get some form of agreement out to +72, that would be a good start to the 12z I’d say. 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Upgrade from the ICON. Easterly flow at 81hrs

UPD.thumb.png.a523c684665378f50dc57fa07b04ebbf.png

EDIT: Helps if I upload the right chart

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Upgrade from the ICON. Easterly flow at 81hrs

UPD.thumb.png.a523c684665378f50dc57fa07b04ebbf.png

EDIT: Helps if I upload the right chart

Definately an improvement from the ICON.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Good start to the IKON - all round better @90

FFC47252-ECA6-4847-8A0D-168E74D18C18.thumb.png.91db5be548bb2e8b7c67c643cf6ba7fc.png

Yes, better places heights in the northeast and lower pressure over Italy.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Even at T48 you can see a small improvement on the GFS, Atlantic profile more vertical.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Upgrade from the ICON. Easterly flow at 81hrs

UPD.thumb.png.a523c684665378f50dc57fa07b04ebbf.png

EDIT: Helps if I upload the right chart

Not sure if I'd rather the Azores High pushed on through and let the cold come in from the East or just bugged off NW and let the cold LP come in as a V cold PM shot...I guess either way could work out for cold. Question I guess is that although the ICON model is showing an output coldies could live with, will it verify?

Those heights up towards Norway don't look that strong to my admittedly naiive eye...

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Just now, Ali1977 said:

Even at T48 you can see a small improvement on the GFS, Atlantic profile more vertical.

God bless your eye sight! 

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

Why oh why do people comment on the early nuances (24-48) on each run. They rarely if ever make any difference in the greater scheme. Sure only yesterday and this morning, we had 4 or 5 instances of the "looks like game over' quickly followed by "this is a big improvement" on a few of the runs. Let it run to until T72/96, anything else is just fanciful!

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

Posts are vanishing faster than the output is flipping at the moment.

If your comment isn't model related, is a dig, a moan, a gripe, or something that <probably> involves a gif, either spare yourself the time typing it, or PLEASE post it in the right thread.

There is a PM function for you to chat to other members. Calling out off topic or unpleasant posts  isn't helpful, because more people then reply to the off topic post which creates a cascade of work, very similar to the cascade I've just had to remove. If you don't like a post, control your inner keyboard warrior and just report it.

Thanks!

Edited by Team Jo
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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Why oh why do people comment on the early nuances (24-48) on each run. They rarely if ever make any difference in the greater scheme. Sure only yesterday and this morning, we had 4 or 5 instances of the "looks like game over' quickly followed by "this is a big improvement" on a few of the runs. Let it run to until T72/96, anything else is just fanciful!

To be fair when FI begins at T96 small changes at T48 will make all the difference if this circumstance.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Why oh why do people comment on the early nuances (24-48) on each run. They rarely if ever make any difference in the greater scheme. Sure only yesterday and this morning, we had 4 or 5 instances of the "looks like game over' quickly followed by "this is a big improvement" on a few of the runs. Let it run to until T72/96, anything else is just fanciful!

Because in this instance, it does make a difference. Models diverge around 72hrs with the tracking of the shortwave. Where that shortwaves goes determines where the rest of the run is heading. 

GFS out to 78hrs is an improvement too, shortwave cleanly moved Southwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

Like really, enough!

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