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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Nothing wintry about the GEFS 6z mean through late Feb / early March with generally fairly benign conditions and max temps around 8 / 9c further south, a little lower further north.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

We’ve rolled out the NASA, desperate times for cross model agreement indeed :rofl:

only kidding, if there’s a model we can view we will look!!! 

I’m finding this fascinating, will the 12z help clear this up? I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it doesn’t. Tomorrow though surely!

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
Just now, karlos1983 said:

We’ve rolled out the NASA, desperate times for cross model agreement indeed :rofl:

 

Im afraid it is desperate times but then again it is a model thread so it's good to compare what models get this right it's interesting times.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
1 hour ago, Singularity said:

For a while GEFS still had the MJO hanging around for almost another week in high amplitude phase 7 while EPS was decaying it steadily.

So I wonder if we saw a run of runs (ha) that were actually using the supposed continued high amp MJO to get the Scandi ridge, and then applying some SSW impacts on top of that. This would allow for the model having never actually predicted as much SSW impact as EPS.

It doesn't explain the longer-term loss of strong negative NAO response following the second warming though. For whatever reason, they're just not taking down the Canadian vortex as effectively as before, despite the second warming having if anything trended stronger in nature. 

This is precisely what I was eluding to in my previous post today,the +NAO has been omnipresent for past 5 winters now despite some favourable background signals and I believe as nice as some re- analysis look,we can not explain the persistent nature of +NAO then all the teleconections have to be taken with a dose of scepticism, we have been burned out a lot with eye candy collapse at  last minute,some put it down to solar influences,but I suspect the SST in Atlantic are key with the lack of Atlantic tripole  signature,scupering shorwaves poping up etc.,there has been very little discussion about it in mods,but a lot about enso,strat,mjo,but for us surrounding SST and AMO must hold a key importance 

Edited by jules216
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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

I'm beginning to wonder whether what we will actually end up with is the infamous February 2011 setup;

Rrea00120110221.thumb.gif.864af3536edde72120914d7e2ae2c654.gif

Extremely cold air close by which battled to push west for a week but never quite won away from  the SE and East.

That would be a let down if this were to happen again and coupled with more favourable conditions compared to Feb 2011.

Edited by Optimus Prime
Poxy spellchecker
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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
4 minutes ago, cold snap said:

The most anticipated 12zs for many of years .One way or another I think will know tonight.

I'm not even sure we'll have it nailed by the 00z's tonight. This is unprecedented model uncertainty. I'd wager we'll have some agreement by 12z's tomorrow. Hopefully a big E'ly that will give me and you some over due sneachta! 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, cold snap said:

The most anticipated 12zs for many of years .One way or another I think will know tonight.

You do?

i don’t expect gfs or the gefs to be there yet (wherever ‘there ‘ is)

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean shows a fairly ordinary outlook, no sign of a freeze anyway, predominantly benign with temps close to average. 

21_198_2mtmpmax.png

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21_342_2mtmpmax.png

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21_366_850tmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

for me I need the UKMO on board & a return to the ECM evolution as UKMO has wiped out the ECM @ ENS suite before !

Agree Steve - just checked and ukmo has 70 vertical levels. Perhaps also not enough at this early stage of the response ??

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
7 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Sure i remember the JMA got an upgrade to 100 vertical levels recently?

Correct! If I'm right its upgrade took place just over a year ago.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Correct! If I'm right its upgrade took place just over a year ago.

 

6 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Sure i remember the JMA got an upgrade to 100 vertical levels recently?

The bumf says it’s 60 in the atmosphere and 52 in the ocean ...... this new information ‘muddies the waters ‘ !!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

for me I need the UKMO on board & a return to the ECM evolution as UKMO has wiped out the ECM @ ENS suite before !

Yep, agreed. If UKMO Is half decent then we are in with a shout 

Fax charts are also a v good indication 

Edited by Banbury
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Interesting, done a little research...

For comparison with JMA's 100 levels of vertical resolution.

The ECM uses 137 vertical levels, whereas the GFS uses 64 levels. 

Whether there are any relation to how the JMA & ECM have a similar pattern at the moment unsure. 

EDIT: ARPEGE runs with 105 vertical levels.

Therefore the 3 models all of which following a blocked pattern all have the largest amount of vertical levels compared to the UKMO and GFS which have less.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Using the most popular OP runs on here at just 4 days out (Tuesday 20th 1am).

As it stands from today's runs we have 3 different groups.

Rubbish - UKMO

UN96-21.thumb.GIF.62a3bdeece83c8a54cf3f9e37acdcf98.GIF

Getting there but not quite - Middle Ground  - GEM, GFS, ICON, NAVGEM (however GEM & NAVGEM showing interest towards the end of their respective runs)

gemnh-0-96.thumb.png.93678a43b7f8666e0a7a1b5a8acb3d2c.pnggfsnh-0-90.thumb.png.ed1448efd2c3e65cf14691051d2fa5ec.pngiconnh-0-90.thumb.png.3b18d1c02997dbfe0dadcab5686e377b.pngnavgemnh-0-90.thumb.png.c89493df0f8ca2937c1a4e0126d739d0.png

Pick of the bunch and go on to produce the goods! - ARPEGE, ECM, JMA

arpegenh-0-96.thumb.png.4f41c1a34ea2bc10a6423f94aa472da1.pngECH1-96.GIF.thumb.png.56d07b38bef3177041130cdb56371d6a.pngJN108-21.thumb.GIF.7492035f7f194bec5be572404e261339.GIF

 

So all in all still a mixed bag, but for me we are tipping the scale toward a colder outlook than a milder one and as the last 3 charts show still a good chance of going on to produce a belting Easterly further ahead! Even if the first attempt fails I'm sure we will get a second bite.

Will we come to a closer resolution tonight???

 

 

 

Edited by Day 10
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Be interesting to know what ICON has in terms of vertical levels.. not least because we get to see it first! 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Be interesting to know what ICON has in terms of vertical layers.. not least because we get to see it first! 

90

navgem only 50 levels and runs at 37km! Surely it’s more a case of a broken clock with this resolution ???

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Arpege is 105 ......

soon be time for something productive

can I make my prediction that the 12z’s will generally be a slight improvement on the 00z though the ecm will not. I expect the modelling to hone in on a Scandi/uk high for the time being and without being able to gain enough latitude to bring a deeply cold flow to the uk. 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Strabane Co. Tyrone, 500 feet below sea level
  • Location: Strabane Co. Tyrone, 500 feet below sea level
1 minute ago, Justin123 said:

Ikon 12z 

A93E4809-6807-4694-B1D0-92E1768B1B19.png

12z only out until 36h so far?

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Justin123 said:

Ikon 12z 

A93E4809-6807-4694-B1D0-92E1768B1B19.png

That’s the 00z

patients my friend :D

Edited by karlos1983
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