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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Very good consistency between the Arpege and ECM at 96 - yet another straw to clutch at!

ECM ECH1-96.GIF?16-12 Arpege arpegenh-0-96.png?0

That said, and for balance, the Arpege is very different from it's own 12z last night

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Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Weather Preferences: coldie
  • Location: Reading

Somebody posted earlier that there was apparently an data observation issue,don't worry there isn't............hmm now where have I heard that before ?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
5 minutes ago, snowking said:

"Data issues" you say.....a clear sign that @nick sussex is running dangerously short of netweather branded prozac and has had to bust his way into the control room at Reading to deploy his last resort - some custom data.

He even did a great job of trying to make it look realistic by drawing the -6c 850mb line right across the M4 at T+240:

ECM0-240.GIF?16-12

For those saying they can't remember the last time the models were this volatile at such a short lead time, I can sadly - December 2012. Though in fairness then, the models did, one by one, drop the idea completely rather than flip-flopping from run to run.

By the way that op run, whilst looking impressive, at face value isn't all that snowy until that potential undercut right out at 240...but let's get some sort of agreement on pattern first before we look at anything like that

:D   Very funny! I almost lost it this morning when I saw the GFS and UKMO!

Looking at some of the differences , the ECM phases the small Atlantic low with the trough to the nw which stops some of  the forward momentum of energy between T96 and T120hrs.

I’m out most of the day which means I’m spared further drama until this evening!

 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Apropos of nothing, that op gives T2 of 1c and Dp of -8c in a stiff easterly at T156 in my neck of the woods. That’s got to be a two t shirt job? 

And a foot of snow for East Anglia and 8” across most parts. (ECM 06z) until we have cross model agreement though it’s all pie / snow in the sky ....

 

7BF7714A-49F2-4FBC-930F-BEC858E15A16.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
11 minutes ago, colonelks said:

 

Oh and I think its written in the stars... I was on a train back from Derby last night and happily browsing the forum when I looked left and noticed the chap next to me doing the same, what are the chances of 2 weather geeks sitting next to each other on the same random train? We had a little laugh and chat about how this is all going tits up and then boom I check the ECM on my next train and we're back in the game.

alright hands up peeps.....

which one of you was on the train with colonelks ??

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
I just wanna tell you how I'm feeling
Gotta make you understand
Never gonna give you up
Never gonna let you down
Never gonna run around and desert you
Never gonna make you cry
Never gonna say goodbye
Never gonna tell a lie and hurt you
We've known each other for so long
Your heart's been aching but you're too shy to say it
Inside we both know what's been going on
We know the game and we're gonna play it
 

IMG_0575.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Sorry JH but comparing model runs 24hrs apart won't happen today. Gfs out every six hours a life time apart.   Anyone know of a model that updates hourly ?. ECM your so naughty. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Gem 00z (P9) is even better than the Ecm 00z amazingly enough, at least longevity wise!:shok::D:cold:..P15 is nice too!:D

GEMP09EU00_264_2.png

GEMP09EU00_288_2.png

GEMP09EU00_312_2.png

GEMP09EU00_336_2.png

GEMP09EU00_360_2.png

GEMP15EU00_240_2.png

GEMP15EU00_264_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

"The ensembles are a good guidance"

This is probably the biggest flip so far in this entire saga. Unfortunately it's a flip in the wrong direction.

Yikes.thumb.png.fa469ed4a6dff5962733d8b459e51411.png

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

And a foot of snow for East Anglia and 8” across most parts. (ECM 06z) until we have cross model agreement though it’s all pie / snow in the sky ....

 

7BF7714A-49F2-4FBC-930F-BEC858E15A16.png

Sadly, I think we know by now Tim, those Weather.us charts are hugely overblown.

I tend to find that if you go into the settings and convert the scale from inches to cms, for some reason you get a slightly more realistic view (of course as a male I would usually advise converting from cms to inches...)

That yields this at +240:

5a8695c0852b7_ScreenShot2018-02-16at08_26_07.thumb.png.8f291b0edf2e885c101be7f7e70c7a30.png

From experience this winter so far, that tends to be about 75% true. So with 2-5cms generally shown at lower levels, I would advise more realistically perhaps 0-4cms, with the undercut towards the end of the run clearly visible in the South-West.

@Nick L usually has some ECMWF access with a far more realistic scale. I'm only theorising here as to why the Weather.us charts are so wild with their estimates, but I imagine there is a fair bit of parameter configuration available when building out these charts and it may be that when viewing these with the inches scale, the more typical US snowfall ratios of around 10:1 (snowfall to rainfall equivalent) are used, where as when converted to cms for a more metric scale-ified europe, the ratio is changed to something more realistic for these parts.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex
38 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

ECM is an initialism not an acronym.

Regardless of what it is, the fact remains it is touted as a medium range model (expert ?). Just saying! 

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Conspiracy theories nick?

Don’t see it.  Anyway, argege being the highest res output available thus far is interesting and ukmo T84 fax has corrected the front back several hundred miles west. The modelling in general within day 6 seems to be sniffing a surprise undercut of the Atlantic trough.  A sort of giant slider which would probably only be feasible given the ssw after effects. let’s see where ecm takes up by day 5. Little point in over analysis past that timescale.

Thanks for the sanity, BA. was just about to start lobbing my granola around amidst all the ‘it’s all over’ posts! 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

"The ensembles are a good guidance"

This is probably the biggest flip so far in this entire saga. Unfortunately it's a flip in the wrong direction.

Yikes.thumb.png.fa469ed4a6dff5962733d8b459e51411.png

I'm of the complete opposite opinion to be honest, not only have they been flipping like a fish out of water, they are ran at a lower resolution than the OP which itself has been up and down like a yoyo, the ensembles are as fickle as the OP runs and if they can't get a grip on the outcome at 5 days any ensembles are about as useful as a chocolate fire guard

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

I'm of the complete opposite opinion to be honest, not only have they been flipping like a fish out of water, they are ran at a lower resolution than the OP which itself has been up and down like a yoyo, the ensembles are as fickle as the OP runs and if they can't get a grip on the outcome at 5 days any ensembles are about as useful as a chocolate fire guard

I completely agree - They do have their merit and at times are a useful guide going forward but in the current situation, they've been fairly useless. Just a few days ago the mean was below -5c for much of the run, now it's closer to +5c. 

The ECM still going for an Easterly gives us hope that it could all change back, especially with the APERGE on board too but we're getting down to the wire now.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Mean for  +96/120, looking good!

32BE6BE8-C5A2-4F59-B535-816CC94EDC16.thumb.png.8295d693dc97354b57a7ee6eb9763457.png0F95B026-52BF-425B-A567-75DDE82177BB.thumb.png.d9d22999b8e772263ead4f8e81e1d23c.png

It gets better 216/240

7FB92CAB-7521-43FA-A8A3-FB92EDE3EBA8.thumb.png.35516081f7bd1ed1a46c661360098311.png6681E563-9CAB-43B7-8F80-5FD4A4AFC0BD.thumb.png.8152005b4c8d1dbf92c4ddf5203f5fa2.pngCAE2AB34-22A5-43E4-8B07-B6914BE73E26.thumb.png.9154f010692d9a321a61838013f1da5b.png

Whats the eps looking like @mulzy

Edited by karlos1983
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Calm people goodmorning although the models don't look I think fingers crossed the others will eventually catch on to the ECM my gut feeling tells me this is what's going to happen fingers crossed. May be completely wrong but that's how I fell. 

Hoping for some better output later

wishing you all a great Friday 

regards ????

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Knife edge situation I'd say 50/50 either heights get far enough north or northeast or northwest for under cut I was expecting an under cut from the east rather than west but either option is on the table.

But these options are only on the table if heights get far enough north.

Of coarse if heights don't go far enough the the Atlantic onslaught would be most likely stormy and wet not overly cold.

So nice to see the ECM flip it's awful evolution from a couple of days ago to upgrades fingers crossed.

Good news seeing the solar flux so low and maintaining its low flux values.

Still lots of interest and a day or two will be crucial to whether we get the exciting charts were seeing from the ECM and JMA.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Not the worst ECM mean in the world

MEAN.thumb.gif.e15f3e261f121ca1d0c983c4feb320a3.gif

GFS + ENS vs ECM + ENS. The smart bet would surely be with the ECM but given it's performance and the utter atrocious performance of the GFS it's pretty impossible to call.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I know that the ECM has led us up the garden path on many occasions, but maybe this time it is right.

At three days out we have a low developing off the coast of Canada. I know I might be completely wrong here but i just cannot see this behaving in the manner it is shown on most of the models. I can't see this blowing up and then simply detaching itself from the polar jet, and then trundles into the mid-atlantic and becomes cut off allowing a flat jet across the Atlantic which is part of the reason for the poor outcomes. The trough to our west on the ECM simply makes more sense to me.

Still I am not sure how quickly the cold will actually come but I still think we will have a surface east/south easterly by this time next week. 

Last two ecm runs going for cold last two meto runs going less cold,something’s got to give in next run surely

im not bothering with gfs its just junk how it just flips and flops every 6 hours

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
20 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

"The ensembles are a good guidance"

This is probably the biggest flip so far in this entire saga. Unfortunately it's a flip in the wrong direction.

Yikes.thumb.png.fa469ed4a6dff5962733d8b459e51411.png

Yup, there is every chance that entire suite is wrong.

As Steve M said earlier, the models have beaten us, there is little point in trying to second guess anything at the moment because there is no reason to believe any one run is more reliable than the last.

It could be ECM is backed by its ensembles which would mean that one suite had to be wrong. 

Throw into all of this the uncertainties of the effects of the SSW, the MetO's own model showing the opposite of what they are forecasting and now the missing data saga and we may as well start slaughtering emoticons and reading their entrails 

 

:shok:

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