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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

God the last few pages just make your head spin, it's coming, no it's not, it's coming, no it's not, it's coming.....

So, i'm wearing flip flops for work, travelling by rollercoaster and because it's Friday I am just going to yo yo about the place!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I know that the ECM has led us up the garden path on many occasions, but maybe this time it is right.

At three days out we have a low developing off the coast of Canada. I know I might be completely wrong here but i just cannot see this behaving in the manner it is shown on most of the models. I can't see this blowing up and then simply detaching itself from the polar jet, and then trundles into the mid-atlantic and becomes cut off allowing a flat jet across the Atlantic which is part of the reason for the poor outcomes. The trough to our west on the ECM simply makes more sense to me.

Still I am not sure how quickly the cold will actually come but I still think we will have a surface east/south easterly by this time next week. 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Admittedly an absolutely fantastic evolution from Ecm again this morning but one needs to keep things in perspective owing to recent model output volatility. While the Irish met service are going with the colder theme from next Tues/Wed, they do stress and put much emphasis on the fact that there’s still a high degree of uncertainty regarding next week.

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

I mean,what's it all about?.How can there be such divergence at such a timescale?.

I've been on here nearly 10 years and never seen such a predicament.

It beats me does this.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
1 minute ago, terrier said:

Well the ecm looks great this morning. But it does seem at odds with the ukmo. And has it’s been said many times this week the ecm has been woeful this winter. Just because it’s now showing what many want to see it’s great again. You couldn’t make it up. 

And the ukmo was showing what we wanted to see a few days ago! We don't mind as long as its from the east:D

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

As expected, this is going to go right to the wire. We should finally have resolution (although don't 100% bank on it) by, I'd say, the 12Zs tomorrow. As to whether we get the early easterly option or have to wait a bit longer.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

OK, we're all in agreement that ECM is number 1 right!?

Well I didn't see that coming and you would have to think it's a cold outlier from 120/144?  As Steve M says, whilst it's great to see the other models aren't going the same way for now.  We really are getting to the point of no return and I think tonight's runs will converge on the final outcome, I don't see a middle ground as possible on this occasion. 

One last look at the uppers for the 25th.

ECU0-216.GIF?16-12 ECM1-216.GIF?16-12

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

I feel sick, up down up down , do you think we might actually get some consistency across the board at all..... soon?

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Oh dear oh dear, how the ICON has fallen.

ICON - No

GFS - No

UKMO - No

ECM - Yes

When will it end? This is more up and down than Elon Musks rockets. Good EPS overnight again but the other models have backed away, I suspect they'll all climb aboard again later just to really mess with us.

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Could it be that there was a data problem on the meto model given the late ecm having a late data issue? Maybe the data wasn't put in the other models in time and just let it run?

No corruption of data it’s really not much off ECM 12Z this is a potential scenario and the chance of it isn’t slim either clearly Exeter know more than us, we won’t have agreement till Sunday at earliest.

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Posted
  • Location: Live Saarbruecken, Germany, work in Luxembourg
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy in Winter, Cold and Wet in Summer
  • Location: Live Saarbruecken, Germany, work in Luxembourg

I am very much an amateur but avid watcher of this thread. Is the inconsistency and constant ups/downs/flips etc. due to how the models are handling the record breaking SSW?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.

Maybe just a thought to go old school from now on in until resolved and stick with plain old fax charts?

God i never thought I’d say that in this day and age with what’s available at our disposal ?

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
3 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Could it be that there was a data problem on the meto model given the late ecm having a late data issue? Maybe the data wasn't put in the other models in time and just let it run?

Somebody posted earlier there was apparently an issue with the observation data. Intriguing.

I don't think anybody minds waiting an hour for what I can only assume was a more accurate run as a result of the issue being resolved. Especially when it turns out like that!

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Somebody posted earlier there was apparently an issue with the observation data. Intriguing.

I don't think anybody minds waiting an hour for what I can only assume was a more accurate run as a result of the issue being resolved. Especially when it turns out like that!

Quite so S4L .  Must admit I,ve come over all February 78ish all of a sudden. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Somebody posted earlier there was apparently an issue with the observation data. Intriguing.

I don't think anybody minds waiting an hour for what I can only assume was a more accurate run as a result of the issue being resolved. Especially when it turns out like that!

‘Issues of the data’ subsequently the run was delayed therefore it’s been fixed ECM can’t afford to put out unreliable data this is why once in blue moon delay has happened. Treat it like no other, 

E65A9357-E8BC-4159-8FCF-1710EDE0528E.thumb.jpeg.9ca8a4137706cc9ac8857e0f9355abd4.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex

Just putting this out there. ECM is an acronym for European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. For the period we're looking at for this easterly would that not make the ECM the 'expert'? 

Possible straw clutching and well aware this is a unique situation but even so. I guess we'll know soon enough. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think we can safely call the Ecm 00z an upgrade compared to yesterday's 00z which ended very mild!!:D..what a run, like one of those old classics from the archives..would dearly love this to be right but also for it to continue well into march!!:shok::cold::cold-emoji::D❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe

My 2p...

It is by no means set in stone and the Atlantic could well drive through but the Arpege is a short range and a high res model. If that's on board as well as the Ecm (and I'm guessing Mogreps) then the balance is looking *just* in our favour at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)

The models will flip flop for a few days yet keep calm it’s the affects of the SSW they can’t handle it, but the easterly is coming it’s just a question of when not if 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

I'm gobsmacked ?. How can this be happening? I really hope the ecm is right for the sake of this forum and my health . Was the METO on board in the failed 2012 easterly? Look at these beautiful chars ?

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

"Data issues" you say.....a clear sign that @nick sussex is running dangerously short of netweather branded prozac and has had to bust his way into the control room at Reading to deploy his last resort - some custom data.

He even did a great job of trying to make it look realistic by drawing the -6c 850mb line right across the M4 at T+240:

ECM0-240.GIF?16-12

For those saying they can't remember the last time the models were this volatile at such a short lead time, I can sadly - December 2012. Though in fairness then, the models did, one by one, drop the idea completely rather than flip-flopping from run to run.

By the way that op run, whilst looking impressive, at face value isn't all that snowy until that potential undercut right out at 240...but let's get some sort of agreement on pattern first before we look at anything like that

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