Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Daniel]

Icon again showing verry cold incoming easterlies!

[The Eagle]

UKMO 120 hrs

 

ICON also moving away from a direct easterly. GFS struggling as well. Short term downgrades.

[Daniel]

7 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Icon again showing verry cold incoming easterlies!

Might of hyped that up a tad sorry ? . It currently seems to be delaying the arrival of the really cold air.

[AWD]

Mean while, away from Icon Land, the 0z UKMO at T120 decides to ruffle some feathers to say the least;

 

And T144;

Ah well, at least it is Friday.  

Edited February 16, 2018 by AWD

[Daniel]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Mean while, away from Icon Land, the 0z UKMO at T120 decides to ruffle some feathers to say the least;

 

And T144;

Ah well, at least it is Friday.  

Yeah I mean I don't think we our gonna get a strong agreement on this for anouther couple of days. 

[Mucka]

Yes ICON is somewhere nearer to last nights ECM than its stunning 12z run.

UKMO is completely at odds with the MetO forecast for becoming colder toward end of next week with SE winds, very odd indeed

Totally did not expect to see a chart like that from UKMO at 144 this morning!

Then again the models have tortured us like the Spanish Inquisition and we all know, nobody expects the Spanish inquisition! 

Edited February 16, 2018 by Mucka

[The Eagle]

GEM

Yeah it's bad across the board.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2018021600/gem-0-138.png?00

 

[Mucka]

All these downgrades can only mean one thing - a stonking ECM!

I'm beginning to wish I had stayed sat on the fence already - splinters in the ass beat a kick in the balls.

Edited February 16, 2018 by Mucka

[Banbury]

The U.K. 144 chart looks pretty similar to the one Nick Miller showed last night 

Edited February 16, 2018 by Banbury

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes ICON is somewhere nearer to last nights ECM than its stunning 12z run.

UKMO is completely at odds witht eh met forecast for becoming colder toward end of next week with SE winds, very odd indeed

 

Synoptics like these as shown by GFS should start to feel pleasant in sunshine during the day, which will be a plus point for a lot of people...

I don't find it particularly strange that the UKMO model is at odds with the Metoffice forecasts...there have been numerous times where the Metoffice have gone with a scenario on balance, only to amend their forecast closer to the time. They use ensemble forecasting so it's not a surprise.

I suspect we'll start to see the SSW effects start to show their hand as we move through March- I just hope we can get a Greenland HP so that we can still filter in the coldest upper air available.

Edited February 16, 2018 by CreweCold

[Daniel]

Just now, Mucka said:

All these downgrades can only mean one thing - a stonking ECM!

I'm beginning to wish I had stayed sat on the fence already - splinters in the weeble beat a kick in the balls.

Still time for the gfs to improve later on in the run.

[The Eagle]

Just now, Daniel said:

Still time for the gfs to improve later on in the run.

I think it's over for February to be honest.

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Still time for the gfs to improve later on in the run.

Well it will be a cold NW before a cold SE if it does.

It is actually not that far off from the UKMO

[Daniel]

1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

I think it's over for February to be honest.

I do agree but early March could be good but then again models keep pushing the dates back. It's a waiting game really. 

[Mucka]

Just to brighten the mood, very nice looking ARPEGE, much more in line with MetO forecast

[Daniel]

Most of Europe is stone dry 

[Ali1977]

Won’t be a happy forum this morning - awful GFS and UKMO with no sign of any HLB or SSW.

Exeter still saying very cold late next week is good, and you still have to plumb with them - maybe the GEFS will differ to the Op - again!!!

Edited February 16, 2018 by Ali1977

[Daniel]

One lonely island stuck between two verry cold air masses with warm in the middle.

[Daniel]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Won’t be a happy forum this morning - awful GFS and UKMO with no sign of any HLB or SSW.

Exeter still saying very cold late next week is good, and you still have to plumb with them - maybe the GEFS will differ to the Op - again!!!

Yeah the esembles will probably be showing completely different situation than the op again .

[Daniel]

Looks like we could be looking to get cold air from the north west again but is it anouther failed model run again ? Maybe 

[Duane S.]

Not the most inspiring start to the day chart wise this morning. I’m staying on the fence until at least tomorrow’s 12Zs though. 

Just watched this morning’s Weather For The Week Ahead and are now conceding there is an option is for wet and windy Atlantic dominated into next weekend. But FAR from sure, could still be from the East. Did also say that ref. an Easterly. It wasn’t a case of IF, it was WHEN.

 

[Banbury]

Yet again the simple message is

Look at the ENS 

[Daniel]

The arpege is showing cold eastlies comming in !

[Mucka]

14 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

 

Just watched this morning’s Weather For The Week Ahead and are now conceding there is an option is for wet and windy Atlantic dominated into next weekend. But FAR from sure, could still be from the East. Did also say that ref. an Easterly. It wasn’t a case of IF, it was WHEN.

 

Unfortunately we all know that if the "when" can't be pinned down then there is certainly an "if"

That said, I dare say it is a matter of when if we don't put time limits upon it - Feb "2022 perhaps?

Hmmm something about this day 10 GFS chart that looks familiar, just can't quite put my finger on it...

Atlantic ridge take 4 - action!

Cut!

and...

Atlantic ridge take 5, action!

I imagine GFS would feel very pleasant in the sunshine, always a silver lining

 

Edited February 16, 2018 by Mucka

[Mucka]

JMA 00z still looking good. So three of the lesser models still on board.