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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

Why do people just make a judgement on the Ops GO and look at the ENS

GFS again has some cracking runs in there, it does seem the end of the month and the start of March is the time to watch

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

So, looks very much like a trend towards lowering AAM as we head into final third of the month.

This looks like the synoptic evolution:

5a85c8eb0386f_gwophase8ninafeb.thumb.gif.69f3f75833fdcb3513a7c49d8c353b22.gif > 5a85c8f0d96f7_gwophase1feb.thumb.gif.da7c58b9b668f35fd55b01b63c0791e7.gif >  5a85c9012e573_gwophase1febandmarch.thumb.gif.4f95eb679a5fcdf832ee66c7be89cf75.gif > 5a85c90da42e7_gwophase2march.thumb.gif.5e613f054e6d243761ec7afac02d86f9.gif

GWO phases 8 - 1 - 1(March) - 2(March)

Phase 1 for Feb suggests too much flow going over the top of any ridge to sustain necessary advection west of cold uppers.

Last five or six days of the month particularly problematic given rapidly altering wavelength and impacts of strat warming. Messy in a word, but reasonable sequence would take the NAO positive to negative.

Edited by Glacier Point
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham

It's not a case of we've lost all chance now because the second warming will open up another chance. It's a case of being in or close to March and needing the position of the second chance being able to advect -10 uppers and lower at that time of year. As singularity states the high pulling in that cold from Asia does give us that chance

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
48 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Actually this winter it is has prevented it from being a total write off. Very cold pools of air coming off Labrador have delivered wintry conditions at times. It may have not in far south but it has not been a poor winter for a lot of folk.

Absolutely, but in terms of getting a negative NAO it is a major issue and in the central/southern England that is usually what delivers.

It may actually make westerlies a bit colder which will benefit people in the NW but for sustained cold and something widespread it's something I believe gets in our way.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

The updated 72hr fax chart has caught my eye. It looks less progressive than the previous 84hr chart and generally looks like more trough disruption. Bizarrely enough, the 72hr chart looks much more like this morning's ukmo run than tonight's run. Will there be a last minute twist to this? 

fax84s.gif

fax72s.gif

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ECM 96 seems better than GFS 96. Though not knowledgeable enough to know how it will turn out. Less intense vortex south of Greenland, stronger high pressure over Scandinavia. Seems kinda similar to ICON.

Edited by oasis
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The updated 72hr fax chart has caught my eye. It looks less progressive than the previous 84hr chart and generally looks like more trough disruption. Bizarrely enough, the 72hr chart looks much more like this morning's ukmo run than tonight's run. Will there be a last minute twist to this? 

fax84s.gif

fax72s.gif

Could be. As we all know, there's more to a FAX chart than the raw model data we see.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Lol ECM going to turn into a cold run now.

ECE1-96 (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 minutes ago, snowice said:

ECM 96 looks like it going to throw us a lifeline! 

Much more sharper compared to GFS, it’s much better than GFS and UKMO

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Have to laugh I was just typing and saying how the chance of an E,ly has now dropped to 25% and along comes the ECM.

ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Just now, Daniel* said:

Much more sharper compared to GFS, it’s much better than GFS and UKMO

image.thumb.png.918c473c6d94f608cd4094c1f732d966.png

:rofl::rofl:

The weather models are teasing us!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The updated 72hr fax chart has caught my eye. It looks less progressive than the previous 84hr chart and generally looks like more trough disruption. Bizarrely enough, the 72hr chart looks much more like this morning's ukmo run than tonight's run. Will there be a last minute twist to this? 

fax84s.gif

fax72s.gif

Yes indeed, and here we go again, ECM @ +T120, the trigger low is back, this could be a cold run. You really couldn't make this up if you tried.:shok:

 

ECM1-120.gif

ECM0-120.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

This is a model rollercoaster ECM very much like the ICON incredibly alike. Easterly on ECM never thought it was coming!

BBF25435-E958-492C-A00E-B1C7D5986A52.thumb.gif.e10fbc019b75375fb68045725f56d405.gif

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Lol can we hear from people saying cold spell is over

 

ECM backing icon and met office update not gfs and even ukmo model

fascinating day of model watching

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Of course, now the ECM jumps across to the cold side because why wouldn't it?

ECM.thumb.gif.a49187b45e1fa7247b1e793a829d445c.gif

This is just getting ridiculous now.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, Daniel* said:

This is a model rollercoaster ECM very much like the ICON incredibly alike. Easterly on ECM never thought it was coming!

BBF25435-E958-492C-A00E-B1C7D5986A52.thumb.gif.e10fbc019b75375fb68045725f56d405.gif

Someone said earlier, imagine if the ECM sides with the ICON, this is completely mad now.:crazy:

All eyes on the T144 chart.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

This is like looking forward to something so much....going 2-0 down in the first ten minutes through GEM and UKMO? pulling one back through ICON and then despairing as a penalty is conceded to GFS.....only to see ECM step up to take it!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

How predictable that the ECM shows this after the 12z UKMO goes off the idea :rofl:

21A96609-F6B2-4A0A-BCF6-9B89268CD774.thumb.png.d8a6e47bd4fcd1ba21bf122d25d5c975.png4AA9D565-0CDB-4BFB-8F08-930DBAEC504A.thumb.jpeg.aa4e7f652870f4341cdbec079f6bfa30.jpeg

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Unfortunately not the charts we were seeing a couple of days ago but not too downbeat yet as to be honest it doesn’t seem any model has a grasp of the situation at all. 

And then lo and behold, after some shocking runs the ECM comes up with a good run so far!

although after looking at the ens, it was perfectly plausible that it would throw a much better run this eve. 

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